2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew data reveals hints as to who is most likely to pull the lever for Trump
The Trump vote: New data reveals hints as to who is most likely to pull the lever for TrumpSALON
MONDAY, AUG 15, 2016
Simon Maloy
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... Gallup, however, just released an analysis of more than 87,000 poll respondents contacted over the last year who offered a positive or negative impression of Donald Trump, and it offers some surprising and clarifying insights into which types of voters are more likely to gravitate toward his campaign.
The long-held assumption that Trumps campaign is powered by poorer, working-class whites whove felt the negative economic impacts of trade, immigration and globalization is, according to Gallups data, incomplete at best. Trumps supporters generally have less education and are more likely to be blue-collar, but the standard economic measures of income and employment status show that, if anything, more affluent Americans favor Trump, even among white non-Hispanics, the analysis reads. Surprisingly, there appears to be no link whatsoever between exposure to trade competition and support for nationalist policies in America, as embodied by the Trump campaign.
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The manufacturing angle to this is particularly interesting, as Gallup found that the only candidate who is viewed consistently positively in areas with higher concentrations of manufacturing jobs is Hillary Clinton. And, contrary to the prevailing conventional wisdom about Trumps supposed blue-collar appeal, exposure to manufacturing tends to predict significantly lower Trump support. Thats potentially a big problem for Trump, given that his campaign and its surrogates talk about these same voters as critical to their chances for victory.
That said, Trumpism is not completely divorced from economic stress. People living in commuting zones with higher white middle-aged mortality rates are much more likely to view Trump favorably, Gallup found. The analysis also noted people who live areas that have less intergenerational mobility also tend to have higher levels of support for Trump. Basically, if youre in an area where white people are experiencing consistently poor health outcomes and younger generations are having less success at moving up the economic ladder, then youre more likely to want to vote for Donald Trump.
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Interesting article. I am going to follow up in a reply with an anecdotal comment.
Ilsa
(61,694 posts)and her husband has a great job in technology, and he also has an advanced degree, both from US universities. Both are immigrants, but have been naturalized citizens for over ten years.
She made a comment, totally anecdotal, but one which I have observed also. She commented on spoiled generations (several) of US children who had a sense of entitlement to all of the great things America has to offer. She said they expected better because their parents are doctors or lawyers, and the kids got to attend private schools and universities, but they didn't work hard enough to get the grades and admission scores (LSAT and MCAT) to pursue lucrative careers. They have jobs and careers that help them remain in middle class, and they stand to inherit money, but they blame immigrants, minorities, and affirmative action programs for "taking" their opportunities away from them. (Yeah, I've seen this a few times.)
Her husband generally concurs, stating that some of the most steady, good paying careers in IT aren't sexy or fun (financial software development, point of sale, etc.), but difficult and requiring long hours. Consequently, the smaller firms hire immigrants to fill certain programmer spots. They'd love to hire more Americans, but those grads would rather work in virtuality, CGI, gaming, etc.
I wonder if the people she described are likely trump supporters.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)populist movements. Sanders' movement is both a left-wing/Democratic progressive movement and a mostly left-wing populist movement, and right here on DU some were calling people who supported Hillary "elites" and supportive of elites.
Btw, great news! a Monmouth just polled Florida voters on who'd do best with threats of terrorism, and they preferred HILLARY, the female Democratic candidate, 48% to 45%! People are learning about Trump!
eppur_se_muova
(36,259 posts)The generation who raised their families in the boom years following WWII and the Great Depression seem not to have passed along the same sense of the need to work hard to succeed as their parents passed on to them. It's like their parents struggled through hard times and recognized the need to create their own opportunities to whatever extent they could, when they could, but having finally gotten through hard times, they decided they could all relax and take middle-class prosperity for granted. So their kids take it for granted that they're going to college and won't even have to pay or it themselves, and they don't work hard for good grades and see no problem with missing classes frequently. The longer I've taught, the lower I've seen the grade curves fall. My last teaching position, I was told that anything over 20% was a passing grade, and I still upset the Dept. Chair and the Dean by handing out too many D's and F's. They're not going to have lucrative careers and they're not going to inherit all that much, so they're going to drop out of the middle class and have even less to give their children. Then they resent those "others" who do work hard to make good grades, especially if they're identifiably "foreign".
Ilsa
(61,694 posts)in a nutshell. And I've seen examples of it. Yes, the post WW2 veterans used their GI bill to get an education and build a good life. Those that came along a little later didn't understand the depths of the Great Depression or the world war that developed the mindset of parents, older simblings, etc.
A different friend told me a few decades ago of a similar issue which probably isn't true today, but was at the time: She was telling me about a higher than expected percentage of successful, family-owned businesses bankrupted by the second generation that took over after the parents retired. Instead of maintaining and growing new business relationships, they used the company as a private bank. They didn't build it, and they didn't appreciate it.
Person 2713
(3,263 posts)Um....I imagine the trump group is almost all made up of white non Hispanics ........strange wording there
Also
When you look at some of his rally photos, the Trump stereotypes are not really what the pics show
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Wednesdays
(17,342 posts)The 1%.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]
I've believed for years that "Obama is President" was the real genesis of this so called "anger". It started with the angry teabaggers and now they are angry Trump voters, the one constant inspiration regardless of economic ups and downs or changing social and political issues is that our President is still black.
Ilsa
(61,694 posts)eight years of Hell.
Nevermind that PBO prevented a Depression by acting quickly. If he had held on to both houses of Congress, I'm sure more could have been done to revive the republican economy.
I like occasionally reminding people that Obama is also half white.
yardwork
(61,588 posts)MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)... and not just trolls?