First Read: The One Way Trump's Shake-Up Makes Sense
NBC NewsThe reaction to the news of the latest Trump campaign shake-up has ranged from shock and disbelief to laughter. "Hiring (Breitbart's Steve) Bannon to run the campaign in the midst of its crisis is insane," Republican consultant Rory Cooper told NBC News. But there is one strategic way it makes sense: Team Trump views the 2016 presidential contest as a race to 40%. Under that scenario, you somehow assume that Libertarian Gary Johnson will get more than 15% of the popular vote, and that the Green Party's Jill Stein will get more than 5%.
And then you make a play for the base to carry you across the finish line. It's essentially the game plan that helped elect -- and then re-elect -- controversial Maine Gov. Paul LePage in 2010 and 2014. Of course, there's a problem with this base play: If the 2016 presidential race is a contest to 40%, well, Hillary Clinton probably gets there first, especially with Trump's percentage currently sitting in the 30s in many key states. And it's doubtful that Johnson and Stein will get a combined 20%-plus of the vote; it will likely be half of that -- if not less.
Down in the polls and outflanked for now in the battleground map, Trump had two ways to go: One, try to broaden his appeal by changing his message and approach. Or two, double down on everything that's gotten him this far. Trump has chosen Door No. 2, which is something 95%-99% of political professionals wouldn't advise.
= new reply since forum marked as read
would obviously have tremendous appeal from what we've learned about Trump, probably overwhelming appeal.
But strategy requires discipline, consistency, and an attention span longer than a few seconds. He doesn't have it.
I really think any official strategy, whether 40% or 270, would likely be very much something that came after his decision to just continue on the way he wants to, an "adoption" pasted onto his behind by his hapless staffers as he steams off to his next fun-again performance.
Oh, forgot -- I heard another way it makes sense. The Mercers like Bannon and his ideology. They'll give money to Trump if he brings Bannon inside and if he uses their money as they designate. Someone pointed out that Bannon wants to take over the GOP for his alt-right ideology and that Trump, given the power of his voter support, is currently the de facto head of the GOP. This may be part of an attempted putsch.
