2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: Trump's New Strategy is Probably Dumb
Trump will probably finish with more than 37 percent by picking off some undecided and third-party voters.2 Still, with almost two-thirds of voters holding an unfavorable view of Trump, its not clear how many more people he can rally to his side without a big change in tone and message.
So its not surprising that Trump has undertaken a major shakeup of his campaign, hiring Bannon and promoting the pollster Kellyanne Conway. Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort has effectively been demoted. But rather than make a much-expected pivot toward general election voters as Manafort had reportedly been pushing for the new plan is to let Trump be Trump, doubling down on the strategies that Trump used to win the nomination, including an emphasis on nationalism, populism and brutal fights with Clinton.
...
If you trust the polls, this seems like a fundamental strategic error. Trump is running worse than Mitt Romney among almost all demographic groups; white men without a college degree are the most prominent exception. But there arent enough of those men to form a majority or really even to come all that close.
How do we know that the rest of the electorate isnt craving a Trumpier Trump? Because in contrast to the primaries, the general election has followed a fairly predictable course. Incidents that people expected to hurt Clintons polling numbers, such as the FBIs repudiation of her use of a private email server as secretary of state, in fact hurt them. The same is true for Trump. Voters strongly disapproved of Trumps criticism of Gonzalo Curiel, the judge in the Trump University lawsuit, and his later criticism of Khizr and Ghazala Kahn, the parents of a Muslim-American soldier killed in action, and these incidents were associated with declines for Trump in the polls. And voters continue to doubt whether Trump has a presidential temperament, a vulnerability the Clinton campaign has continuously exploited in advertisements and speeches.
Whats more, Trump already doubled down on Trumpism at the Republican convention, with a disorganized program and gloomy acceptance speech full of nationalist and populist themes. The result was a convention that left most voters with a worse impression of Trump and the Republican Party. Clinton went from having roughly a 3 percentage point lead just before the conventions to more like a 7 or 8 point lead just afterward, and her advantage has held roughly steady ever since. August is still too soon to declare any presidential campaign over. But Trump and his acolytes seem to be in profound denial about the narrowness of their appeal.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-doubling-down-on-a-losing-strategy/
OP Title comes from a Nate Silver Tweet not the article title:
You're not going to believe this but Trump's new strategy is probably dumb. https://t.co/MQa8LOhqea
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/766286608391954432
Response to Godhumor (Original post)
MichiganVote This message was self-deleted by its author.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)I haven't seen those characters since that Star Trek: TNG episode first aired.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Raissa
(217 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)piechartking
(617 posts)Third Doctor
(1,574 posts)Jarqui
(10,122 posts)It seems a kamikaze strategy that will deliver the White House to the Dems.
He'll stay calm for a week or two or so, giving the new staff a chance. When it doesn't deliver the results he dreams of (he'll be grade school impatient), then he'll go off. We might see him really implode.
Using Breibart conspiracy theories - that's going to pit mainstream media against them.
This pollster seems at best ok for handling polls but as a campaign manager? I have major doubts. She's no Plouffe/Axelrod - none of them are.
They have to turn this around on a dime. That's really hard to do quickly when you take over an organization and don't know the staff, the history, etc - and may be cash starved because these polling dives are not helping bring in money. The Trump campaign don't even know a bunch of these people they've hired.
They've been doing no ads and don't seem to have much planned/developed yet. They have a very suspect and raw ground game team - months behind Clinton.
I'd just like them to hang on until it's absolutely too late to replace him - so I wouldn't mind seeing a little bounce back in the polls - just enough to suck them into staying the course. And then, I'll be delighted by his inevitable demise because I agree with Nate - there's no way this gong show of a campaign can succeed.
Letting Trump be Trump is like saying "let our candidate be a 24/7 asshole". It's crazy.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)I don't foresee a lot of party unity happening either--they may disown him sooner rather than later.
Cosmocat
(14,560 posts)his whole appeal is spewing bombastic nonsense.
So, his drowsily mumbling teleprompter policy speeches is not going to come close to getting the current margin erased.
He does have to "be him" to get the buzz, but the buzzworthy shit he said that helped him in a primary where it was a race to the bottom is hurting him in the general where he already has the lowest common denominator in his corner and the margin are people are not either pure simple asses or hard right wing simple asses.
The only two things that really change the dynamic now is 1) some kind of real or hyped up issue that really hurts Hillary 2) something REALLY bad that hurts the country or world.
Jarqui
(10,122 posts)Most folks do not want him in charge of serious things.
The #1 is the last threat. An October surprise from the hacks or Clinton Foundation.
That's the one thing he might be working towards with his strategy. Hillary gets cut down some by a scandal (maybe that's why he's got conspiracy media Breitbart) and him being Trump solidifies the base he had from the primaries that with Hillary's fall - where some of her support might go to 3rd parties - might elevate him high enough to steal it. Scary and a Hail Mary.
Part of what frightens me about the Clinton Foundation is that we've never really sorted it out or had a third party look at it like the FBI did the emails and report conclusions that cleared her. Now we're left with the potential of hurtful innuendo. She may be vulnerable to an attack from there - to be swiftboated by it. The docs hacked from the DNC server said as much.
As long as Trump remains the GOP candidate, I think he can go lower in the polls - he's so bombastic. That might be the best answer to that kind of an attack. It's why I don't want him to quit.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Yup and his Reich wing fans demand that Trump be Trump!
No way do they want him to "pivot", that's what the old school republicans want him to do, not the fire-eating racist mob that got him the nomination.
Trump is going to flame out in a dirty miasma of teabag filth and take the republican party down as well IMO.
I hope to God they never recover from Trump's Götterdämmerung.
Maeve
(42,279 posts)Yes, Drumpf runs casinos (into the ground), but the phrase 'double down' has bee worn to death this past year!
And yeah, his campaign is a crap shoot that is rolling snake-eyes at this point and can't get a seven to save it.