2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI done some dem dare math! Electoral College prediction based off PredictWise odds
So there is a separate page on predictive site PredictWise that lists out the probabilities of Clinton winning every state (+DC). There are a number of ways to use those numbers to come up with Clinton's expected EC number, but I chose to do a weighted average for each state by probability and EC votes (I.e. Clinton has a 99% chance of winning NY's 29 EVs, so, as a weighted average, she will win 28.7). I know some people would argue that this is not how the EC works, but the nice thing about doing a weighted average is that it accounts for probabilities instead of an analog yes/no based off increasingly dubious likelihoods.
Anyway, using a weighted average based off PredictWise probabilities, the current EV total stands at:
*Drumroll*
Clinton - 331
Trump - 207
This is pretty consistent with where other EV models see the race.
And this is why Trump is about to sell out his base to "appeal" to minority voters and go hard after the Clinton Foundation. Because, less than 80 days out, he is pretty much fucked.
Numbers calculated using www.predictwise.com as a source.
ismnotwasm
(41,967 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Had a big write up on why people shouldn't obsess about the 538 Nowcast, but I didn't bother to finish it up. Doesn't feel like it is needed as much in the GE season.
Might do one on what house effects are and why adjusting for them is not the same as unskewing (Nate Silver just did a little write-up on then, but it was a little too technical of an explanation, in my opinion).
annabanana
(52,791 posts)LonePirate
(13,408 posts)Do they still show up to vote for him or do they stay home and not vote?
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I think he might lose a few to the Libertarians, personally. And, if he does gamble like this and polls change to reflect...guess who joined the debate stage if he hits 15% in polling?
Trump needs to be really careful here, assuming he is actually trying to win.
LenaBaby61
(6,973 posts)Probably not