Missouri Could Be A Swing State Again

Whatever the cause, the post-convention polls in Missouri have been closer than those in many states often referred to as battlegrounds. Yet I hear very few people mention Missouri as a state Clinton could win.

What makes the lack of attention being paid to Missouri all the more odd to me is that there’s a pretty close Senate race there as well. Republican Sen. Roy Blunt leads Democrat Jason Kander by 6 percentage points, according to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate. That lead is a equal to the 6-point edge that Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has in Florida and Republican Sen. Rob Portman has in Ohio. Missouri has just as close a Senate race as Florida and Ohio and a tighter presidential race. Think about that for a second.

Now, I get that we’ve seen an increase in straight-ticket voting (voters choosing one party for all races) over the past few decades. If the presidential race were tighter nationally, it would be hard to imagine Kander winning. But because the presidential contest is so close in Missouri, a win by Kander is more conceivable. Also, Missouri voters have shown a willingness to vote for Democrats in recent statewide elections. Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill easily won re-election in 2012, in large part because of Todd Akin’s infamous rape comment. That same year, Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon cruised to a second term. This year, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Chris Koster is ahead in the polls over his Republican opponent, Eric Greitens.

Missouri deserves some attention this election season. The polls show Republicans are favorites to carry the presidential and Senate race in the state, but it’s no sure thing. And with Missouri’s history as a swing state and unique political geography, watching it all play out should be interesting.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missouri-could-be-a-swing-state-again/