2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Mason-Dixon Florida Poll: HRC: 44% Trump: 42%
Here we go again. Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a slim 44%-42% lead over Donald Trump in Florida, with Libertarian Gary Johnson drawing 6%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein getting 2% and 6% still undecided.
The race in Florida clearly divides along the traditional demographic lines. Clinton leads among Democrats (83%-7%), women (51-37%), blacks (91%-5%), Hispanics (63%-27%) and in Southeast Florida (56%-31%).
Trump is ahead with Republicans (78%-10%), unaffiliated voters (44%-30%), men (47%-36%) and non-Hispanic whites (54%-29%). Trump has very strong support in North Florida (52%-33%) and Southwest Florida (52%-35%).
The battleground once again is in the I-4 corridor. The race in that area is essentially tied, with Clinton leading 44%-40% in the Tampa Bay region and Trump leading 46%-42% in Central Florida.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mason_Dixon_FL_Aug_2016.pdf
book_worm
(15,951 posts)than the 10-point lead that Chamber of Commerce FL poll from yesterday gave her.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)The Florida Hispanic vote is not as Democratic as the Hispanic vote nationwide, because Cubans tend to be more Republican.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)helpisontheway
(5,004 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)but HRC will win.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)I think in the end Florida goes for Hillary. Howeve, the map is different. Hillary could lose both Ohio and Florida and still win.
Raissa
(217 posts)The divide is clearly visible but I know persoonally that the ground game here is damned good. Stones are not being left unturned.
It will be a close race here but I believe we have the components in place to pick up Florida.
As a note I've now seen Trump's ad about five times total. I've seen three of Hillary's TODAY. Those percentage points will matter here.