2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy the media ignores the Democrats in the defeat of Cantor is a mystery
I have commented on this in other discussions but decided to start my own post on the subject of Cantor's loss.
Everything points to Democrats in the 7th District voting for Brat in the primary to send a "screw you" to Cantor and the Republicans.
In Virginia, we do not register a party affiliation when we register to vote. At primary time, we can vote for whomever we like but we can only vote once. Since the last minute Democratic candidate was running unopposed, why not go down to the polls and vote for Brat if you are a Democrat. I sure as hell would have done it.
Another fact that suggests that Democrats put Brat over the top was that moderate areas of the very gerrymandered 7th District where Cantor should have received more votes than Brat voted heavily for Brat--Democrats, I suggest, provided the unexpected results.
Finally, the polls before the election had Cantor winning. Having done 1000s of hours of telephoning to get out the vote and to supply information in Virginia elections, we call likely Democrats and likely Democratic voters when we call for the Democratic candidate before an election. The Republicans do the same. We do not want to alert the other side to the upcoming election (we do our best to determine who is more likely to vote one way or another from contribution in formation, from those who volunteer, canvassing, etc.) Since we do not associate with a party when we register in Virginia, determining party affiliations does take a lot of time and effort.
I should also note that when called by pollsters, many Democrats in Virginia's 7th probably said they didn't plan to vote as there was no Democratic candidate until the last minute and even if there had been a lone Democratic candidate running unopposed, why let the pollsters know that you were planning to vote against Cantor just to screw with him.
I was disappointed that Larry Sabato, who lives in Virginia and knows this quirk, didn't point it out. Shock, I suppose.
I hope that Democrats in the 7th get organized for the November election because Brat is vulnerable.
SunSeeker
(51,378 posts)And Trammell can win if we get behind him. It is a whole new ball game.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Brat starts off with 7 percent of the vote due to the district being 57 percent Republican. I think what really screwed Cantor is that redistricting make the district more conservative and he forgot he was representing the district.
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)if people do not register by party affiliation?
Do you have a link to that info?
emsimon33
(3,128 posts)We ferret out party affiliation by what ballot they requested in the primaries, what party they volunteer for, who they donate to, and canvassing in person and by phone. However, since the Republican Party has gone bat shit crazy, many who once identified themselves as Republican now identify as Independent and in Virginia, at least in my memory, no one runs as an Independent or if they do they do so rarely.
Thus, the 57% Republican label given to the VERY gerrymandered (and gerrymandered, ironically, for Cantor) is based on the research I noted above. However (and this is where the gerrymandering can end up biting the Republicans in the butt as it did in the 7th, especially in Virginia), as the Republican Party gets more and more right-wing crazy and funded by the 1% and corporations with dark money, people can change their minds about what party they will vote for and in primaries in Virginia, Democrats can vote for the bat shit crazies and hope for the best.
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)I had seen that same percentage from a number of people, and wondered where it was coming from.
Thank you for all the work you are doing, as well as the explanation.
I hope you are right, btw... Right that, not just in Va but everywhere, people will soon catch on to how insane the R party has become. I fear for this country if this tea party madness goes on much longer.
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)In that district it was McCain 56 - Obama 44 and Romney 57 - Obama 42.
We can hope that some of the Cantor supporters will be ticked off enough to vote against Brat in the general, or at least (the more plausible hope) will stay home. Even with the factor of the divisive Republican primary, however, I think Trammell would have to be considered the underdog.
JustAnotherGen
(31,688 posts)And I swear I saw where a DUer said they voted for Brat yesterday for just this reason.
Maeve
(42,226 posts)I was listed as a Republican for four years because I crossed over to nominate a defeat-able candidate (and it worked; the Dem became governor). Open primaries are two-edged swords, but sometimes they are the tools that work.
emsimon33
(3,128 posts)I hated that smug, arrogant Cantor and all the gerrymandering.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)If I remember correctly, he was the only other name, besides Romney. It was fun and we had a chuckle.
Cha
(295,929 posts)thanks emsimon
corkhead
(6,119 posts)I am envious because I have crossed parties on Michigan's open primaries in the past but never had the success that the folks in VA did. Michigan has tightened up the primaries so you have to declare a party to get a partisan ballot, but that still doesn't stop me if I feel my vote can do more good in the republicon primary.
former9thward
(31,807 posts)And you provided no figures.
Little evidence for widespread Democratic cross over voting to oppose Cantor in GOP primary
Vote counts show turnout did not spike higher in more Democratic-voting counties, and Cantor lost most support in Republican strongholds.
Vote counts show turnout did not spike higher in more Democratic-voting counties, and Cantor lost most support in Republican strongholds.
Likewise, Cantor saw the biggest drop-off in support in Republican strongholds of Hanover (-44 percentage points) and New Kent (-44 points), counties where Obama drew just over 30 percent of the vote in 2012. In Henrico County where Obama won 55 percent support, Cantor's drop-off was a smaller 32 points. The overall correlation between Obama's county support and Cantor's drop-off was clearly negative at -.60, indicating that the higher Obama's 2012 support, the lower Republican primary turnout rose this year. This is consistent with the idea that Republicans largely drove the rise in turnout.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/