Not that the Koch Bros. won't be spending heavily, of course...

Still, language for different sets of incumbents often seems to be...different...

Plus they are incumbents.

In other words, what are the average margins of victory for Democrats in state races?

Are the polls weighted toward "likely" voters, and if so, how are those determined, etc.?

Consider the facts here,KSTP=Hubbard Broadcasting=big money bag for Rethugs. USA=Gannet Publishing St Cloud=big money bag for the Rethugs. Right on schedule for these two fake news outlets or toilets,you choose,in Minnesota to issue their propaganda statements. Rethugs only have smelly turd balls as so called candidates this election cycle. Bachnman and her crew has given the DFL a big time gift this time around,don't screw it up,okay.

A new SurveyUSA poll finds Sen. Al Franken beating businessman Mike McFadden, the likely Republican nominee, by a 48-42 margin. He also defeats state Rep. Jim Abeler, a longshot who's challenging McFadden in the primary, 48-39.

In February, Franken led McFadden 50-40 and Abeler 48-37, so McFadden may be experiencing a slight bump in the wake of the GOP's recent convention. Also, both he and Franken have been on the TV airwaves.

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton leads Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (who, like McFadden, earned his party's official endorsement at the convention) by a 46-40 spread. That's tightened considerably from Dayton's 52-34 edge last time. Johnson still faces a fairly competitive primary, and Dayton holds slightly larger leads against all the other GOP contenders: He's up 46-39 on former House Speaker Kurt Zellers; 46-38 versus former House Minority Leader Marty Seifert; and 47-37 against businessman Scott Honour.

Dayton had leads of around 20 points against all of these guys in February, but now he's stuck at 46. Either the race has gotten more competitive abruptly (and without much explanation), or this is another example of SUSA weirdness.

1.) He won in 2008 by only 312 votes out of more than 3 million cast. That's 0.01 percent.

He now has at least a 6 point lead.


2.) This 6 point lead is from a GOP sponsored poll.

That means his lead is likely greater than 6 points.


3.) In 2012, fellow Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar beat her GOP rival (Minnesota State Representative Kurt Bills) by 35 points. More than 2.6 million votes were cast in Minnesota that election.


Thus, I think Franken will win reelection this November by about 10 points.

The other thing is Franken has taken a very cautious approach his first term and is not one of those Senators who is overly partisan. That may help sway independents toward him more than 6 years ago.

of his margin of victory.

Franken's 2012 victory was very narrow, but it was also a very Democratic leaning year. We can't expect as favorable a turn out in a mid term. That said, he was also facing an incumbent and there was a lot of skepticism over a comedian turned politician and whether he was serious enough (all BS of course, but I think that is less of a concern this time).

I think he'll win again, but probably closer to 5 points. I guess I'm just pessimistic though and don't expect many Democratic Senators to win by a high margin.

Al Franken leads all of his potential Republican opponents by double digits. He leads his most likely potential foe, Mike McFadden, 49-38. Those numbers are exactly the same as they were eight months ago. Franken's leads against the rest of the GOP field are 50/39 over Jim Abeler, 49/38 over David Carlson, 50/35 over Patrick Munro, and 50/33 over O. Savior. [...]

The story in the Governor's race is similarly stable from the fall. Mark Dayton leads Kurt Zellers 47/37, Jeff Johnson and Marty Seifert 47/36, and Merill Anderson and Scott Honour 47/35. In October he led Zellers, Johnson, Seifert, and Honour all by 10-11 points as well. Dayton has a 48/41 approval rating now, nearly identical to his 48/42 spread from our previous survey.