2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Cantor Prediction Is Part of a Pattern—GOP Pollsters Stink
Kristen Soltis AndersonThey overestimated Romney, underestimated Cuccinelli, and had Eric Cantor up 34 points. Do GOP pollsters understand the country anymore?
The last few years have regrettably made the phrase Republican pollster less a job title than a punch line. From the 2012 election, where many in the GOP were stunned by the Obama campaigns victory, to the 2013 closer-than-expected Virginia gubernatorial race, all the way to the present, Republican polling as of late has been a much-maligned sector of the campaign-industrial complex, and not without reason.
This past week, prominent Republican pollster John McLaughlin came under fire for his firms polling that showed House Majority Leader Eric Cantor up by 34 points over his insurgent opponent, David Brat, in his Congressional primary in Virginia. Cantor and his team, assuming a relatively easy victory was imminent, were blindsided last Tuesday in a double-digit loss.
While theres definitely a need for accountability in terms of what campaign consultants are providing for their price tags, the piling-on of McLaughlin has been unseemly and dishearteningly personal. He is not the only pollster to get a race wrong, not by a long shot. For instance, in 2012, nonpartisan pollster Gallup whiffed and showed Romney ahead on Election Day nationwide. In 2013, most pollsters in the Virginias governors race underestimated just how close Virginias Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli was in his bid to defeat Democrat Terry McAulliffe.
With fewer and fewer people picking up the phone to bother talking the pollsters in the first place, getting it right is hard.
more
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/17/the-cantor-prediction-is-part-of-a-pattern-gop-pollsters-stink.html
yellowcanine
(35,692 posts)Maybe this time around Republicans will have as much or more of a problem with GOTV as Democrats; low turnout can throw off even the best polling.
abelenkpe
(9,933 posts)"If youre an irregular or infrequent voter, youre not getting called, ..."
I honestly do not know anyone under the age of fifty who has a land line or who would ever answer a call from a number they do not recognize. Unrecognized numbers go straight to voicemail. If polls are done by phone only they will miss a large number of potential voters.
TlalocW
(15,359 posts)... have always been - and never more than now - xenophobic and always harkening back to a time in our history that exists only in their mind, and they don't want to hear about or believe that anything outside their worldview exists, and if it does, it falls under not being American in their viewpoint and is of no consequence.
TlalocW
sendero
(28,552 posts)..... the value to democracy itself of polling. It is used to tailor a message, not to promote honesty. It is used to discourage an opponent or his voters. It's pretty hard to think of just what positive thing is contributed by pre-election polls.
I hope they become more and more unreliable and are just abandoned. I know it isn't going to happen, but a guy can dream can't he?