The 12 races that will decide the Senate majority

The November election is 137 days away. But we now have a very clear idea of what the Senate landscape -- the playing field on which the battle for control will take place -- is going to look like.

Primaries have, largely, sorted themselves out in the most competitive Senate races in the country with Republicans -- so far -- avoiding the perils of 2010 and 2012 in which the party nominated a number of candidates who had major electability problems in the general election. The recently concluded Iowa primary gave Republicans their strongest nominee and the Georgia primary produced two runoff participants without the general election baggage of some of the GOP candidates in the running.

What we are left with is 12 races that can be considered truly competitive -- meaning that either one (or both) of the national parties and/or the various outside groups have or will spend money in them. The races are tipped heavily toward Democratic-held seats; 10 of the 12 contests -- including the six most vulnerable -- are currently in Democratic hands. Of the 12 states, Mitt Romney carried nine of them in 2012 -- with Michigan, Iowa and Colorado the trio that went for President Obama.

Republicans insist the playing field is actually 14 not 12 -- adding Minnesota and Oregon to the list. We remain unconvinced that Republican challengers in either of those Democratic-leaning seats have shown the ability to make the races genuinely competitive just yet. Similarly, Democratic optimism in Mississippi seem overly optimistic to us -- even if state Sen. Chris McDaniel ousts Sen. Thad Cochran in the GOP runoff next Tuesday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/20/the-12-races-that-will-decide-the-senate-majority/

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