2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIpsos/Reuters Clinton 46 Sanders 25 Biden 19.
The four most recent polls now have Clinton up around 20%, and this is including Biden, which typically reduces her lead by close to 10 points.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22834
The last Ipsos/Reuters poll was 40-30-15.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22797
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,706 posts)WoW, and Trump is still ascendant.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)That's the year that anyone will have even a chance to catch up to Hillary at this rate.
Probably Biden.
oasis
(49,152 posts)BlueWaveDem
(403 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)were telling Biden to go away. I don't think they would like the polling if he did ... there would be at least two themes that would no longer applied: the one about HRC's support among Black folks imploding and HRC's, general, falling back to the field.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,706 posts)That was based on the logic that her support with Hispanics was imploding because of a small sample in a poll published months ago.
A look at the results on pg 18 should disabuse anybody of that notion:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0xv2459omk/econTabReport.pdf
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)that survey doesn't look good for Bernie:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0xv2459omk/econTabReport.pdf
It doesn't have him up in a single demographic ... and the only groups that he is even "close" are 18-29 (at -6) and White folks (at -10)
And: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0xv2459omk/econTabReport.pdf
He doesn't far any better against Biden.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)shows Bernie is at best tied with Hillary for the millenial vote.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)and losing in all others, as a sign for encouragement.
BlueWaveDem
(403 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)For the first 15 years of her life, we left a bit early for daycare, then, school, on the first Tuesday in November because I took her with me to the polls ... Her mother has voted in every election ... She is well read, politically informed and issue involved ...
Yet, she is NOT registered to vote.
I guess there is truth to the phrase: "With age comes wisdom."
I have asked her how she plans to effect change within this system without participating in the system.
She responds: the system is broken (I, largely, agree)
I ask, "Are you and your generation ready to rip shit up?"
She says, "Not really; but we do want a change."
I have told her, and her friends, she can't have it both ways ... if you want change, you either have to vote for change or rip shit up.
While I have my preference ... I'm getting old and it is becoming her world.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Without Biden, she is at 60-62%.
Bernblu
(441 posts)A good poll for Hillary but if you look deeper into the poll you'll see that Hillary's lead 46%-25% is among only Democrats. Among Independents Bernie leads Hillary 29%-14%.
This means two things: 1) Bernie is doing better than the top line number in states that have open primaries and 2) Bernie will do better in a general election. When the independents are included, Hillary's lead shrinks to 38% to 26%.
I am surprised at how weak Hillary is among Independents.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)13 of which are Red states.