2016 Postmortem

Persondem

(1,936 posts) Fri Oct 2, 2015, 05:42 PM Oct 2015

Clinton gains ground on Sanders in latest I/R poll. Recent trends reversing.

Hillary Clinton continues to lead among Democrats nationwide, with 40% of Dems. Sanders (30%) has gained ground on the front runner.

From 10-2 poll

Hillary Clinton continues to lead among Democrats nationwide, with 46% of Dems. Sanders (25%) continues to run in second with Joe Biden in third (19%) among Democrats.

So Clinton has gone from a 10% lead to a 21% lead. This poll reflects other polls that show a similar trend. The following graph is a composite covering the last 2 months.

46 replies

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Clinton gains ground on Sanders in latest I/R poll. Recent trends reversing. (Original Post) Persondem Oct 2015 OP

Good poll numbers for Hillary leftofcool Oct 2015 #1

Cool chart bro Fearless Oct 2015 #2

"Customized Chart" Fawke Em Oct 2015 #3

Exactly Fearless Oct 2015 #4

That's a bullshit comparison. I stated the parameters and presented the numbers as given. Persondem Oct 2015 #9

You showed select data to make her look better. Fearless Oct 2015 #18

The data I selected were the dates and less smoothing. That's it. Persondem Oct 2015 #19

Good thing your results aren't facts. Fearless Oct 2015 #28

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigt. Yep, those four polls that show the gap widening are just Persondem Oct 2015 #30

The 140 others that show it narrowing... just bad polling right? Margin of error? Fearless Oct 2015 #33

This isn't complicated.. the most recent polls show the gap widening. DCBob Oct 2015 #35

Everyone knows I am a Clinton supporter, but the I/R poll is pure shit Godhumor Oct 2015 #5

They are ranked a C+ for accuaracy by 538. So not great, but hardly "shit".nt Persondem Oct 2015 #10

I/R poll gets backup from Pew poll with almost same numbers. Persondem Oct 2015 #15

Would it not have been a more impressive chart FlatBaroque Oct 2015 #6

Probably. Feel free to post it downthread if you like. Persondem Oct 2015 #11

I suspect a bigger bump after the effect from Kevin McCarthy and the Rethugs... DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #7

Such things take some time to trickle through the media and become part of the Persondem Oct 2015 #12

Hillary rising... Bernie sinking. DCBob Oct 2015 #8

LOL, so you turn off the smoothing, and if it's improving for Hillary you post the picture? jfern Oct 2015 #13

But it wasn't "statistical noise" when Bernie was closing was it? Persondem Oct 2015 #14

It's just noise when you reduce the smoothing. jfern Oct 2015 #16

Smoothing hides the details.. DCBob Oct 2015 #20

Reducing the smoothing allows shorter term effects to show more clearly Persondem Oct 2015 #21

And the 3 polls before that all pointed to HRC decreasing her lead jfern Oct 2015 #26

Hence the trend reversing which is the point of the OP. Persondem Oct 2015 #27

Hillary is sinking with independent voters in same poll Honeylies Oct 2015 #17

Pew poll has her up 45% to 19% with conservative/moderate voters Persondem Oct 2015 #22

Independents make up 42% of the electorate Honeylies Oct 2015 #24

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #23

Unless they register as a Democrat Honeylies Oct 2015 #25

Hillary Clinton is way ahead in the polls moobu2 Oct 2015 #29

I like that poll. :) nt Persondem Oct 2015 #31

That's just great. oasis Oct 2015 #32

Even a dead cat will bounce John Poet Oct 2015 #34

And a dead cat rising in the air will fall back. Persondem Oct 2015 #36

#LeanOnMe #Hillary2016 riversedge Oct 2015 #37

I agree. She did a good job. She can take a joke and her Trump impersonation was great! nt Persondem Oct 2015 #38

Yes, I hope so. riversedge Oct 2015 #46

No, that doesn't work. John Poet Oct 2015 #39

And the trend continues. HRC now 24 points up on Sanders and Biden. Persondem Oct 2015 #40

Here we go--it's gonna get interesting now!!! Go Hill! nt MADem Oct 2015 #41

K & R SunSeeker Oct 2015 #42

Interesting polling Gothmog Oct 2015 #43

Boom. I'm votin' for Bernie Sanders. #feelinthefuckingBern cherokeeprogressive Oct 2015 #44

Like that graph. riversedge Oct 2015 #45

leftofcool

(19,460 posts)

1. Good poll numbers for Hillary

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 05:46 PM

Oct 2015

I expect them to keep rising.

Fearless

(18,421 posts)

2. Cool chart bro

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 06:15 PM

Oct 2015

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)

3. "Customized Chart"

Reply to Fearless (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 06:18 PM

Oct 2015

Fearless

(18,421 posts)

4. Exactly

Reply to Fawke Em (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 06:20 PM

Oct 2015

I figured after the planned parenthood "graph" this would stop for a bit. Guess not.

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

9. That's a bullshit comparison. I stated the parameters and presented the numbers as given.

Reply to Fearless (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 09:32 PM

Oct 2015

Just because you don't like the facts presented doesn't mean you get to make disingenuous comparisons.

Fearless

(18,421 posts)

18. You showed select data to make her look better.

Reply to Persondem (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 10:53 PM

Oct 2015

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

19. The data I selected were the dates and less smoothing. That's it.

Reply to Fearless (Reply #18)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 10:05 AM

Oct 2015

Tough shit if you don't like the results.

Fearless

(18,421 posts)

28. Good thing your results aren't facts.

Reply to Persondem (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 10:50 PM

Oct 2015

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

30. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigt. Yep, those four polls that show the gap widening are just

Reply to Fearless (Reply #28)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 11:23 PM

Oct 2015

my imagination.

Fearless

(18,421 posts)

33. The 140 others that show it narrowing... just bad polling right? Margin of error?

Reply to Persondem (Reply #30)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 11:31 PM

Oct 2015

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

35. This isn't complicated.. the most recent polls show the gap widening.

Reply to Fearless (Reply #33)

Sun Oct 4, 2015, 07:07 AM

Oct 2015

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

5. Everyone knows I am a Clinton supporter, but the I/R poll is pure shit

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 06:21 PM

Oct 2015

It was shit when it showed Bernie closing. It is still shit now. The methodology is horrendous.

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

10. They are ranked a C+ for accuaracy by 538. So not great, but hardly "shit".nt

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 09:33 PM

Oct 2015

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

15. I/R poll gets backup from Pew poll with almost same numbers.

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 10:06 PM

Oct 2015

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251642182

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)

6. Would it not have been a more impressive chart

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 06:25 PM

Oct 2015

if you looked at the period Sept 21 to Sept 28?

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

11. Probably. Feel free to post it downthread if you like.

Reply to FlatBaroque (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 09:35 PM

Oct 2015

I thought a 2 month span would cover the time when Sanders was closing so as to highlight the reversal of the last 7-10 days.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

7. I suspect a bigger bump after the effect from Kevin McCarthy and the Rethugs...

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 06:29 PM

Oct 2015

I suspect a bigger bump after the effect from Kevin McCarthy and the Rethugs shooting their, errrr, bolt on Benghazi.

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

12. Such things take some time to trickle through the media and become part of the

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 09:37 PM

Oct 2015

collective consciousness. Your "bigger bump" may well happen.

Yes, the McCarthy "truth moment" was a nice gift.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

8. Hillary rising... Bernie sinking.

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 06:41 PM

Oct 2015

jfern

(5,204 posts)

13. LOL, so you turn off the smoothing, and if it's improving for Hillary you post the picture?

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 09:38 PM

Oct 2015

This is all statistical noise.

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

14. But it wasn't "statistical noise" when Bernie was closing was it?

Reply to jfern (Reply #13)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 09:47 PM

Oct 2015

Or can you point me to previous posts in which you call out BS supports for posting the HuffPo graph? Most of those graphs I've seen start in 2008 which means 95% of it has zero to do with the 2016 primary. Do you call them out for that as well?

Smoothing is not turned off, it's reduced. And it's not just one poll that's pulling HRC back up and dropping Sanders, it's 4.

jfern

(5,204 posts)

16. It's just noise when you reduce the smoothing.

Reply to Persondem (Reply #14)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 10:17 PM

Oct 2015

I pointed out here that Bernie was gaining without the smoothing. Of course no one was showing the graph with reduced smoothing then.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=612795

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

20. Smoothing hides the details..

Reply to jfern (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 10:08 AM

Oct 2015

and the reality of what is actually happening.

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

21. Reducing the smoothing allows shorter term effects to show more clearly

Reply to jfern (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 10:09 AM

Oct 2015

That's the point of being able to reduce the smoothing. You can call it "noise" all you want, but the last 4 polls included in the graph all point to HRC increasing her lead on Sanders.

jfern

(5,204 posts)

26. And the 3 polls before that all pointed to HRC decreasing her lead

Reply to Persondem (Reply #21)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 05:00 PM

Oct 2015

It's all just random noise

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

27. Hence the trend reversing which is the point of the OP.

Reply to jfern (Reply #26)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 05:05 PM

Oct 2015

So 3 polls are good enough for you to say that HRC's lead is decreasing but 4 polls showing the opposite are "noise". Yep, ok, I see how this works.

Honeylies

(77 posts)

17. Hillary is sinking with independent voters in same poll

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Fri Oct 2, 2015, 10:43 PM

Oct 2015

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

22. Pew poll has her up 45% to 19% with conservative/moderate voters

Reply to Honeylies (Reply #17)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 10:13 AM

Oct 2015

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251642182

Perhaps evens out.

Honeylies

(77 posts)

24. Independents make up 42% of the electorate

Reply to Persondem (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 11:27 AM

Oct 2015

So maybe not.

Response to Honeylies (Reply #17)

Name removed Message auto-removed

Honeylies

(77 posts)

25. Unless they register as a Democrat

Reply to Name removed (Reply #23)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 11:38 AM

Oct 2015

http://voteforbernie.org/

moobu2

(4,822 posts)

29. Hillary Clinton is way ahead in the polls

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 11:06 PM

Oct 2015

at my house. Hillary 100% - Bernie 0%

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

31. I like that poll. :) nt

Reply to moobu2 (Reply #29)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 11:24 PM

Oct 2015

oasis

(49,373 posts)

32. That's just great.

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Sat Oct 3, 2015, 11:31 PM

Oct 2015

John Poet

(2,510 posts)

34. Even a dead cat will bounce

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Sun Oct 4, 2015, 05:50 AM

Oct 2015

if she drops far enough....

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

36. And a dead cat rising in the air will fall back.

Reply to John Poet (Reply #34)

Sun Oct 4, 2015, 10:50 AM

Oct 2015

Especially if it's a conscientious objector, tax raising, socialist dead cat.

You see how that worked? Jerk.

riversedge

(70,186 posts)

37. #LeanOnMe #Hillary2016

Reply to Persondem (Reply #36)

Sun Oct 4, 2015, 11:23 AM

Oct 2015

I think this SNL might give her a kick IMHO

JW4Hillary ?@JW4Hillary 11h11 hours ago

#LeanOnMe #Hillary2016

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

38. I agree. She did a good job. She can take a joke and her Trump impersonation was great! nt

Reply to riversedge (Reply #37)

Sun Oct 4, 2015, 11:25 AM

Oct 2015

riversedge

(70,186 posts)

46. Yes, I hope so.

Reply to riversedge (Reply #37)

Tue Oct 6, 2015, 08:17 AM

Oct 2015

John Poet

(2,510 posts)

39. No, that doesn't work.

Reply to Persondem (Reply #36)

Mon Oct 5, 2015, 06:28 AM

Oct 2015

There's a problem with your physics.

And speaking of "jerks"....

Persondem

(1,936 posts)

40. And the trend continues. HRC now 24 points up on Sanders and Biden.

Reply to Persondem (Original post)

Mon Oct 5, 2015, 06:55 PM

Oct 2015

Sanders and Biden are tied.

Clinton continues to gain on Sanders who now has to be concerned with being overtaken by someone who is not even running.