Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:06 PM Oct 2015

Updated: Bernie slightly above Biden in HuffPost/Pollster (customized) model.. trails Hillary by 20

Last edited Tue Oct 6, 2015, 01:16 PM - Edit history (2)

Date range: (9/1 to current)
Less smoothing option
All polls

Latest chart includes new PPP poll.


Old chart from Oct 5.


The Bern may have "berned" out!

57 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Updated: Bernie slightly above Biden in HuffPost/Pollster (customized) model.. trails Hillary by 20 (Original Post) DCBob Oct 2015 OP
Thay is why Andrea only spoke of Hillary and Joe yeoman6987 Oct 2015 #1
That would mean his attack dogs (supporters) would have to turn on Joe. Walk away Oct 2015 #41
I don't question her motives because I support Sanders. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #43
So you support Sanders because he is not Hillary? upaloopa Oct 2015 #52
Sanders is good for the economic interests of the 99 percent! Period! Utopian Leftist Oct 2015 #53
He isn't running AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #45
Great, The Hillary can go back to winning by 40% instead of 20%. Walk away Oct 2015 #50
She was leading by 80% AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #51
That is pretty funny! nt Walk away Oct 2015 #55
Looks that way. The graph is turning smiley for HRC!! Persondem Oct 2015 #2
I expect to see some more changes in the numbers soon. Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #3
Yes. me too. DCBob Oct 2015 #4
....downhilll deadlinetony Oct 2015 #34
Yes, downhill for some and up with the cream. Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #47
Especially once the debates begin AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #46
I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the less smoothing option jfern Oct 2015 #5
This is the exact opposite of cherry picking. DCBob Oct 2015 #6
The thing is very noisy and weights the latest poll by too much jfern Oct 2015 #7
Look at the last five polls. DCBob Oct 2015 #9
They don't include the most recent poll jfern Oct 2015 #12
I like this poll also, Hillary still on top. Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #48
Don't forget Mike Dukakis. He was included in at least one poll and he's in fourth place. Cheese Sandwich Oct 2015 #8
meh. from the looks of your chart, Bernie had 2 polls below Biden. magical thyme Oct 2015 #10
You appear to have a legitimate point but.. DCBob Oct 2015 #11
And we've been waiting with bated breath since the end of July deadlinetony Oct 2015 #35
Where did you get that image? The website shows Sanders clearly in 2nd. KeepItReal Oct 2015 #13
dc bob's special blend virtualobserver Oct 2015 #14
The amount of disinformation on DU around polls is shameful. KeepItReal Oct 2015 #16
Yes... You are Right! MrMickeysMom Oct 2015 #15
Customized. DCBob Oct 2015 #32
How come that is a Customized chart? LiberalArkie Oct 2015 #17
I'm still waiting on an answer for where that polling image came from KeepItReal Oct 2015 #20
Well is was customized, but with what values? Not the one listed in the article LiberalArkie Oct 2015 #21
Here's the poll using DCBob's date range: KeepItReal Oct 2015 #22
I think this is the poll they were trying to show LiberalArkie Oct 2015 #24
Bwahahaha! You had me for a second! KeepItReal Oct 2015 #25
Love that one. moobu2 Oct 2015 #26
Does 2015 make you uncomfortable? Scootaloo Oct 2015 #28
He explained the options he used right in his OP Godhumor Oct 2015 #40
Because its customized. DCBob Oct 2015 #39
Okey-Dokey then... SoapBox Oct 2015 #18
If rallies = votes the Sarah Palin would have bee elected POTUS! nt Walk away Oct 2015 #44
C'mon Lessig! zappaman Oct 2015 #19
Lets face the facts Duckfan Oct 2015 #23
Bernie might have burned out Half-Century Man Oct 2015 #27
Bernie hit his ceiling workinclasszero Oct 2015 #29
Wow, imaginary candidate gaining on Hillary? Was that your point? nt Live and Learn Oct 2015 #30
It's a fake poll photo. See the other photos upthread for the reality. Fearless Oct 2015 #31
LOL... Its not fake. DCBob Oct 2015 #33
That is because of one outlier poll Motown_Johnny Oct 2015 #36
LOL.. its not distorted. DCBob Oct 2015 #38
Interesting polling Gothmog Oct 2015 #37
"Customized Chart" Fawke Em Oct 2015 #42
The "real chart shows nothing of the sort" because it hides the details. DCBob Oct 2015 #49
Thanks for posting Gothmog Oct 2015 #54
Biden rising ucrdem Oct 2015 #56
K & R SunSeeker Oct 2015 #57
 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
1. Thay is why Andrea only spoke of Hillary and Joe
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:15 PM
Oct 2015

You only reward those that earned it. Maybe if Bernie works to gain on the VP, he may get more attention.

Walk away

(9,494 posts)
41. That would mean his attack dogs (supporters) would have to turn on Joe.
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 11:45 AM
Oct 2015

Bernie never goes after anyone. He just benignly ignores the fact that so many of his supporters have waged a vicious campaign against Hillary Clinton from day one.

It will be interesting to see what his "unofficial" campaign does in regards to Biden. He doesn't have much of an official campaign, so the internet bullies who have been so successful at shutting out Hillary supporters will have to take on Joe if he jumps in. If Biden actually enters the race then the Sander's campaign is dead in the water.

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
43. I don't question her motives because I support Sanders.
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 11:48 AM
Oct 2015

I question her motives because I think she's a corporate-owned war hawk. Period.

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
52. So you support Sanders because he is not Hillary?
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 03:10 PM
Oct 2015

I doubt you really care what Hillary is.
My guess is you think that a Sanders Presidency would be good for your economic interests.

Utopian Leftist

(534 posts)
53. Sanders is good for the economic interests of the 99 percent! Period!
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 08:11 PM
Oct 2015

Or do you just suppose that the RepubliCONS are WRONG on EVERY ISSUE EXCEPT the ECONOMY?

LOL!

Not bloody likely. The science is in. Read Piketty, Capital in the 21st Century. He puts the last nail in the coffin of supply-side, trickle-down, "Voodoo economics." It's OVER!

And Hillary wants us to continue the illusion that her watered-down, Republicon-influenced economic solutions are as good as Bernie's? Sorry, Hill. Not gonna pretend for anyone, not even you.

 

AgingAmerican

(12,958 posts)
45. He isn't running
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 11:57 AM
Oct 2015

The pollsters are obviously showing something their corporate masters don't like without Biden in the race. He isn't even running, yet there he is in every poll.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
5. I'm sure we'll hear nothing about the less smoothing option
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:29 PM
Oct 2015

as soon as it has Sanders doing better then the normal smoothing option again. This cherry-picking is ridiculous.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
6. This is the exact opposite of cherry picking.
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:33 PM
Oct 2015

Every poll included and no smoothing to hide the details. Why would you want it any other way?

jfern

(5,204 posts)
7. The thing is very noisy and weights the latest poll by too much
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:37 PM
Oct 2015

Sanders was at least 23 in 19 polls straight, but then some poll with a sample of only 344 comes along that has him at 18, and boom the stupid less smoothing option has him drop a huge amount. There's nothing statistically significant about this drop.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
9. Look at the last five polls.
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:41 PM
Oct 2015

Bernie is down and Hillary is up in all five. Thats why the lines are diverging.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
10. meh. from the looks of your chart, Bernie had 2 polls below Biden.
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:41 PM
Oct 2015

Every other poll on that chart -- 21 in all -- he is clearly higher. Often much higher. 2 polls, a week apart, out of 21 do not a trend make.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
11. You appear to have a legitimate point but..
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 10:46 PM
Oct 2015

regardless the model gives Joe a slight lead at this point in time.

 

deadlinetony

(48 posts)
35. And we've been waiting with bated breath since the end of July
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 06:43 AM
Oct 2015

as to his announcement... and keep delaying by the media.

KeepItReal

(7,769 posts)
16. The amount of disinformation on DU around polls is shameful.
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 11:50 PM
Oct 2015

"9/1 to current" according to the OP, Bernie is *still* second.

I call that OP some BULLSHIT.

MrMickeysMom

(20,453 posts)
15. Yes... You are Right!
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 11:46 PM
Oct 2015

Pollster Trend

Hillary Clinton 43.1%
Bernie Sanders 25.6%
Joe Biden 19.9%
Martin O'Malley 0.9%
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee 0.2%
Lawrence Lessig 0.0%
Undecided
Other

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
32. Customized.
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 06:16 AM
Oct 2015

As I said in the op. You can do it yourself. Just select the date range specified and choose less smoothing option.

That's it!

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
40. He explained the options he used right in his OP
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 09:53 AM
Oct 2015

It is customized because he limited the date range and changed from moderate smoothing to less smoothing.

SoapBox

(18,791 posts)
18. Okey-Dokey then...
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 12:39 AM
Oct 2015

Bernie is tied with someone who can't decide if they are running or not.

And when is Ms. Inevitable going to have a 25,000 attendee rally?

Duckfan

(1,268 posts)
23. Lets face the facts
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 12:56 AM
Oct 2015

At this point in time of the campaign, it is considered late. Joe is not running. Probably can't get enough donors to back him. He ain't going to do it. They simply need to take him out of the polling equation. End of story.

Half-Century Man

(5,279 posts)
27. Bernie might have burned out
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 01:11 AM
Oct 2015

Taco Bell might be actual Mexican cuisine.
Bigfoot might be an ancient alien crash landed on Earth.
Humans might not have to much effect on climate.
Reality programming might be the peak of human civilization.
The best cure for itchy genitally might be a hammer.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
33. LOL... Its not fake.
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 06:18 AM
Oct 2015

Its customized. You can do it too.. just follow these simple instructions:

-- click create you own button
-- enter date range 9/1 to current
-- select less smoothing option
-- click apply

That's it.. customized charts for the clueless!

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
36. That is because of one outlier poll
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 06:44 AM
Oct 2015

Enjoy it while you can, but this just shows that Clinton supporters will distort reality in order to support their distorted views.


It is only the less smoothing option that creates this distorted chart.





DCBob

(24,689 posts)
49. The "real chart shows nothing of the sort" because it hides the details.
Tue Oct 6, 2015, 12:44 PM
Oct 2015

The customized chart is better if you are interested in the most current data and what is happening at a more granular level.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Updated: Bernie slightly ...