Because policy doesnt matter as much as name ID here

Too bad for Bernie.. there aren't enough Vermonts and New Hampshires in the country.

Bernie will say something to change all the AA's minds and then they will all begin to feel the Bern.
Don't know what it could be but it is his only chance.

Seems unlikely to say the least.

A lot can change.....

I think once the fake email scandal finally runs its course, Hillary will gain even more.

It's a 2 way street.

But thanks for playing Bernie.

THEN we'll see what the polls tell us when voters have not only name recognition but issues stances more in their hands to make decisions.

according to Nielson, only about 28% of people over the age of 18 watched at least 6 minutes of the 2008 presidential debates.

That is not enough undecided voters to make a huge swing.

https://www.princeton.edu/~mprior/PriorPOQ2012%20Debates.pdf

This poll has about 115 African Americans in it.

So...is that poll still bad because of how few African Americans were in it, or is it OK now?

Hillary always led Bernie with the AA vote. That poll showing her losing it was bogus.

This poll have 551 total people in it, 21% identify themselves as African American. Or about 115 African Americans.

A couple weeks ago there was a poll that had something like 130 African Americans and showed a 30(?) point drop in African American support for Clinton going to Sanders. (Uncertainty is because I'm going from memory)

In both cases, there are not very many African Americans in the poll, leading to a very large margin of error among African Americans.

In this particular poll, the relatively small margin of error is only on the "headline" number, with all 551 people. The margin of error among only African Americans is going to be much higher. Calculating that margin of error would require information they did not release.

Anyway, in discussion of the earlier poll, Clinton supporters were complaining about the small number of African Americans in the poll and thus the large margin of error. The same posters are now praising this poll, which has an even smaller number of African Americans.

Also, many of the posters above deride all "online" polls as utterly unreliable. They apparently didn't notice that this poll is 20% online, since they are praising it.

was an outlier. It is clear if you look at the trend since the beginning of the primary.

As a result, we don't have the data to call any of them outliers.

Additionally, polls are only now showing an increase in people who have heard about Sanders. You can't expect support from people who have not heard about you, so the trend from 6 months ago isn't particularly meaningful either.

And finally, my point was the selective dismissal of polls. Like the results = "Good poll!!". Don't like the results = "Sample's too small" or "Online poll LOL".

Fact is, we know jack shit about who's really doing better. We have hints and nudges, but there's still way too much in flux to say much nationally. Especially when you factor in later states will know the results from earlier states.

But we can't have our own facts

Doesn't mean I can't point out the flaws in the conclusions you are drawing.

Especially national polls and primary elections. Since later states see the results from earlier states, that can cause very large swings in those later states.

Essentially, if it isn't the first 3-ish states and isn't around a month before that state votes, it's only for giving pundits something that sounds insightful.

Just as he has to keep working to get more recognition and win more votes from all ethnic groups.

It's called a political campaign.

Latest polls have him winning 50 states, so the percentage of AAs must be higher.

And why are you calling Bernie a racist?

claiming segments of voters long in advance of an election is a very risky choice. Never define your potential by something with can change without any hope of control from the prediction makers. Small turns of the tide appear to be major movement once you have insisted 'he can't win those votes' the moment he starts winning some you start playing explain the support and that's when the verbiage usually really starts slipping up and even more voters switch sides.
So good luck with it, kid.

I know the OP that said 'Hillary owns the gay vote' is that which made me put O'Malley in my second spot. I don't want to party with folks who think they 'own' me. Fuck that noise and those who make it.

If he keeps picking up 8-10% per month, he'll be in good shape when the primaries begin. It pleases me to see Camp Weathervane so desperate....and they'll no doubt double down on the smears since there's nothing positive they can say about HRH.

prefer Clinton?

Many black people I talk to like him better than Clinton particularly the young while older black voters favor her.