2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders only pulling 13% of the African American vote
Also, Biden supporters are more pro-Hillary than pro-Sanders:
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Among Biden voters, 44% say Clinton would be their second choice to only 21% who say Sanders would be. If Biden doesn't get in and you reallocate his backers to their second choice, Clinton leads Sanders 51 to 28.
The race is close with very liberal voters (Clinton gets 45% to 41% for Sanders), men (Clinton gets 35%, Sanders 28%, Biden 24%), and younger voters (Clinton and Sanders tie at 36). Clinton is dominant with seniors (51% to 23% for Biden and 15% for Sanders), African Americans (Clinton gets 51% to 30% for Biden and 13% for Sanders), and women (Clinton gets 48% to 22% for Sanders and 17% for Biden.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/clinton-leads-every-democrat-under-the-sun.html
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BTW, PPP was the most accurate pollster during the last presidential election cycle
Report1212
(661 posts)Because policy doesnt matter as much as name ID here
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Too bad for Bernie.. there aren't enough Vermonts and New Hampshires in the country.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Bernie will say something to change all the AA's minds and then they will all begin to feel the Bern.
Don't know what it could be but it is his only chance.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Seems unlikely to say the least.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)neverforget
(9,436 posts)A lot can change.....
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think once the fake email scandal finally runs its course, Hillary will gain even more.
neverforget
(9,436 posts)It's a 2 way street.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)But thanks for playing Bernie.
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)THEN we'll see what the polls tell us when voters have not only name recognition but issues stances more in their hands to make decisions.
hack89
(39,171 posts)according to Nielson, only about 28% of people over the age of 18 watched at least 6 minutes of the 2008 presidential debates.
That is not enough undecided voters to make a huge swing.
https://www.princeton.edu/~mprior/PriorPOQ2012%20Debates.pdf
jeff47
(26,549 posts)This poll has about 115 African Americans in it.
So...is that poll still bad because of how few African Americans were in it, or is it OK now?
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Hillary always led Bernie with the AA vote. That poll showing her losing it was bogus.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)This poll have 551 total people in it, 21% identify themselves as African American. Or about 115 African Americans.
A couple weeks ago there was a poll that had something like 130 African Americans and showed a 30(?) point drop in African American support for Clinton going to Sanders. (Uncertainty is because I'm going from memory)
In both cases, there are not very many African Americans in the poll, leading to a very large margin of error among African Americans.
In this particular poll, the relatively small margin of error is only on the "headline" number, with all 551 people. The margin of error among only African Americans is going to be much higher. Calculating that margin of error would require information they did not release.
Anyway, in discussion of the earlier poll, Clinton supporters were complaining about the small number of African Americans in the poll and thus the large margin of error. The same posters are now praising this poll, which has an even smaller number of African Americans.
Also, many of the posters above deride all "online" polls as utterly unreliable. They apparently didn't notice that this poll is 20% online, since they are praising it.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)was an outlier. It is clear if you look at the trend since the beginning of the primary.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)As a result, we don't have the data to call any of them outliers.
Additionally, polls are only now showing an increase in people who have heard about Sanders. You can't expect support from people who have not heard about you, so the trend from 6 months ago isn't particularly meaningful either.
And finally, my point was the selective dismissal of polls. Like the results = "Good poll!!". Don't like the results = "Sample's too small" or "Online poll LOL".
Fact is, we know jack shit about who's really doing better. We have hints and nudges, but there's still way too much in flux to say much nationally. Especially when you factor in later states will know the results from earlier states.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)But we can't have our own facts
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Doesn't mean I can't point out the flaws in the conclusions you are drawing.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Especially national polls and primary elections. Since later states see the results from earlier states, that can cause very large swings in those later states.
Essentially, if it isn't the first 3-ish states and isn't around a month before that state votes, it's only for giving pundits something that sounds insightful.
Response to jeff47 (Reply #12)
1StrongBlackMan This message was self-deleted by its author.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Just as he has to keep working to get more recognition and win more votes from all ethnic groups.
It's called a political campaign.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)Latest polls have him winning 50 states, so the percentage of AAs must be higher.
And why are you calling Bernie a racist?
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)claiming segments of voters long in advance of an election is a very risky choice. Never define your potential by something with can change without any hope of control from the prediction makers. Small turns of the tide appear to be major movement once you have insisted 'he can't win those votes' the moment he starts winning some you start playing explain the support and that's when the verbiage usually really starts slipping up and even more voters switch sides.
So good luck with it, kid.
I know the OP that said 'Hillary owns the gay vote' is that which made me put O'Malley in my second spot. I don't want to party with folks who think they 'own' me. Fuck that noise and those who make it.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)If he keeps picking up 8-10% per month, he'll be in good shape when the primaries begin. It pleases me to see Camp Weathervane so desperate....and they'll no doubt double down on the smears since there's nothing positive they can say about HRH.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)prefer Clinton?
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Many black people I talk to like him better than Clinton particularly the young while older black voters favor her.