I'd say the OP pretty much just called Democrats a bunch of idiots.

Thing is, the People will prove how smart they really are by electing Sanders.

We just have not had a real choice until now. Now there is Bernie and the People will be heard, loud and clear.

And like to put ppl in front of a jury--so i tend to choose carefully. I do, however, admire your directness

majority of the Democrats will vote for him. This issue is will the independents vote for Bernie?

I don't think we have any real gauge to measure that now, and going back in history is not a good reference. If we use George McGovern as an example, the demographics of the country were different then, and it really isn't comparable. If we use Obama as an example, the economic collapse was a major factor in the republican defeat.

The only gauge we have at this moment in time is pollsters, and there are too few polls out on independents, to gauge how Bernie would do against the republicans. Also, it is too early in the game.

One fact remains, whoever is the Democratic nominee, they will have to capture at least a couple of red states, and several purple states in order to win the general election

The path for the Dem nominee is much easier than that for the GOP candidate. Dem nominee only has to capture a couple of purple states, GOP nominee has to capture all the purple states and steal a couple blue states.
Frankly, Clinton will have a tough time. She won't get any republican crossover votes, well under 50% of the Independant votes, and is looking at a much less than enthusiastic liberal Democratic votes.
OTOH, Bernie can get some republican votes, he will capture a sizable majority of Independant votes, and the left wing of the Democratic Party is wildly enthusiastic about voting for him, including many young and first time voters (who will also be voting down ticket races). Hillary is part of the same DWS-led cabal that's managed to lose House and Senate seats the past 3 elections. If Dems want to continue the same losing strategy, vote Hillary. If Dems want to revitalize the party in a new direction, vote Bernie.

the next census.

There is absolutely no evidence to back up what you say, so we will leave it at we are assessments of the situation are different

That's what I was answering to. No need for you to erect a straw man.
However, a popular candidate that brings out voters does help the down ticket races. An UN exciting candidate doesn't. And a candidate whom the republicans detest will bring them out in droves to vote against her.

because of current DNC policies, and pointing out that the House was gerrymandered so badly in the red and some purple states with the last census, that it would be unrealistic to assume that anyone could undo the effect of the gerrymandering in the house until at least the next census, and perhaps demographic changes in some of those states.

It wasn't a straw man.

republicans will turn out in force against any Democratic candidate, and in my view it is naive to believe that Bernie will not have the same republican hate addressed to him should he become the Democratic nominee.

We just don't agree

eom

corporate evils that are rendering our gov't yet another corporate evil, a coup d'éta via oligarchs. People are fed up & they won't be voting for anyone who represents more status quo, not by a longshot!

There is no enthusiasm for continuing the corporatist stays quo. Hillary as the nominee will be met with a giant yawn, and poor turnout.

That's why the massive surge of support for Sanders has completely shocked them from the beginning. If they were that wrong just two months ago, they're that wrong now.

And I don't know what world you're living in when you think the "BOTTOM" and the middle class are so distinct. Many of us who were born into or clawed our way into the middle class have fallen out of it for the many reasons Sanders (and Warren) and other anti-neoliberals have been describing for at least a decade. And I'm white. It's been a helluva lot worse for the Black middle class.

I believe it was Forbes magazine said that Sanders' tax rate would take us back to that of the middle of the Reagan era. Hardly the USSR or even Canada's tax rate.

Maybe after the debate things will change for the better for him. Time will tell.

I like much of what he says, but there are just too many checked boxes in the Can't Win column. Even if he can't win, Sanders is still saying important things that are shifting the priorities for Clinton and moving voter opinions back to the left of center. Is nice to have good candidates that actually look and sound like real Democrats for a change.

philosophy cannot win the nomination. Not these days. In Bernie's case, he can also point to a solid and reassuring record of voting with his Democratic Party colleagues.

Aside from that, I agree. These are just some of the reasons he can almost certainly not win the primary, mercifully, much less the general. Of course, if support continues to rise, he is virtually certain to broaden his message to appeal to a far larger electorate.

I felt from the beginning that Bernie initially ran to pull continue pulling the national dialogue to the left, and he is succeeding beyond all early expectations, except perhaps his own.

Later on, our nominee will need Bernie to throw his support to the nominee in return for agreements on policy. Someone asked on another thread what Bernie supporters thought Bernie should demand in return for their support, but I didn't see any real answers.

Conventional wisdom says "the democrats are doomed to centrist/republican light candidates forever".

does not predict the future.

People just prefer looking back because grabbing onto whatever understanding they can get from it is preferable to looking forward to what is for most is an empty screen.

I know who I'm supporting and why. If the average American can't get past labels, oh well. I'm not going to turn off my brain and lower my standards to match.

I swear, I've heard some pretty strange statements today, but ...really?

What analysis brought you to this statement? This "Bernie will get hammered" on this and on that stuff is pretty thin supposition, so what evidence do you actually base it on?

Overall, I have read many of your posts and a lot of them amount to empty assertions and hand waving. Whereas I can agree with you Bernie Sanders is a bit of a long shot in the primary, I think he has as good or better chance than Clinton in the general, despite the "socialist" moniker.

Here we go....

"He's passionate. He's strong on his issues. He's a great speaker. I think he's great and agree with him on most issues."

-- Yes, I think you "get Bernie" if you can see that. Many of us do. 2 months ago I didn't really know who he was (I had heard of him) but I saw him once on TV and thought "this guy means what he says... how refreshing".

'And he won't win."

-- I get this is the "hook" of your post but it really is just an empty assertion. You may be right but it's only your opinion. If a black dude with very little relevant experience and a middle name of "Hussein" can beat Hillary and the Republican machine as well as its bought and paid for media, anything is possible.

"And the extreme majority of party members and analysts agree."

-- You have no way of knowing for certain what the "extreme majority" of party members think or agree on. What you see are a lot of party members who are hedging their bets Hillary will win and don't want to be on the wrong side of the fence if she wins. They are looking for favors. So yes, I would say Hillary is the odds on favorite but it is still just a matter of odds. We haven't even had one debate so it's a bit early yet to know anything for sure.

"Here are the indisputable political realities that tell us why he has precious little chance of winning:"

-- Ok, this is where you Hillary folks start to get a bit full of yourselves. "Indisputable political realities". Indisputable? Come on. Don't be so convinced of your self that you have blinkered thinking.

"* Bernie is a confirmed self-described "socialist." It flies in the very face of our current and historical political culture. Not gonna happen. The R's will destroy him on this. He cooked his own presidential goose years ago when he went this route. It would be a political bloodbath for him the likes we have never seen in this country. ENDLESS ads with 'Socialist Socialist Socialist.' "

-- I agree the socialist moniker does not help but I think times have truly changed and red baiting doesn't really have the effect it used to. It seems to me a lot of people are willing to put labels aside to get what they want.

Barack HUSSEIN Obama is a SOCIALIST MUSLIM MANCURIAN TROJAN HORSE KENYAN candidate who wasn't even born in the United States but we elected him twice!

In other words, people aren't as stupid as you think they are.

"* Bernie is mainly talking to the BOTTOM (many or most of whom don't even vote). The American dream is NOT the minimum wage and Medicaid. The American dream is a decent home, two decent cars in the driveway, an annual vacation, money in the bank, and a secure retirement. I don't hear a single word in his speeches about a plan to expand small and medium sized businesses which employ the vast majority of Americans. IF YOU DON'T WIN THE BROAD MIDDLE CLASS, YOU DON'T WIN AT ALL."

-- Ok this paragraph is complete misrepresentation if not just a lie and it's the reason I want to respond to you. Yes, here I am calling you a fabricator and if you want to read it "a liar". And if you aren't then you are just being purposefully ignorant.

A liar or purposefully ignorant, take your pick.

Bernie is not just talking to the bottom as you depict it. He is not just talking to the minimum wagers and medicaid crowd (you might as well have just said Welfare Queens while you are at it).

Bernie is talking to the 99% = we are the 99% in case you haven't noticed.

Bernie is talking about the American dream for everyone, especially the working middle class.

I am a small business owner and I garner a large personal income. I have 5 employees that need health insurance and 3 kids that need college. Bernie's proposals are everything to me.

So on this point, just step off.

* Bernie will get HAMMERED as a "TAX AND SPENDER TAX AND SPENDER TAX AND SPENDER" to no end. Almost EVERYTHING he is proposing is a government program. While I personally agree with a lot of this, he has opened himself up to WAY too much of a "SPEND SPEND SPEND EXPLODE THE DEBT EXPLODE THE DEBT EXPLODE THE DEBT" attack narrative. He'll be smashed to pieces on this.

-- This may be true. But if you don't think this will happen to Hillary, you are ignorant and haven't been paying attention much.

* Other reasons, unfair as they may be, include being from Vermont (such a small state with such a low population in a remote area of the country) and his age.

-- True and True. However, Hillary is OLD too....like very OLD. Not sure what the material difference is here? Perhaps because Hillary colors her hair?

A very good guy who I like a lot who will not win the nomination nor the general election. Just isn't gonna happen. In the meantime, it'll be fun to watch this thing as it unfolds.

-- He is very unlikely to win the nomination. I will sadly admit that. But if he does, I think he has as good or better chance than Hillary to win the general. There's no way either of us can prove it one way or the other. It's just opinion and conjecture.

But in my opinion Bernie's message appeals more to independents and moderate Republicans. He is also much less despised all across the political board than Hillary. A lot of people really dislike HRC and she has earned some of that enmity. Bernies message is also much more exciting for the base of the party and anyone on the left. Hillary is basically more of Obama's worse instincts (ie. establishment corporate democrat) plus a touch more War for good measure.

===

In the end RBI, you have some good points but you so fully overstate them it just comes off as hubris and lies.

Yes, Hillary is more likely to win the Primary. We all know that.

But no, it's not certain who will do better in the General. They both have reasons why they might do better, but there's nothing certain and the polls seem to indicate Bernie would do just as well if not better, and that's with a lot less name recognition.

==

Have a good day and think before you post next time.

you clearly have a level of patience that i no longer experience while visiting GDP

kudos!

You've made a well-reasoned response to a poorly-reasoned OP. This in itself ought to vindicate you and your point, but .... you know, this is DU.

who couldn't manage to defeat a massively unpopular Republican governor. They clearly know what works.

"He isn't right wing enough!"

to have an in depth "class warfare" debate. That being said, Bernie won't have the resources to withstand the right wing funded tsunami that is coming next year.

is gearing-up to stay ahead of the RW attack machine.

In the first place, American voters are fed-up with nasty political attack-ads, as we just
saw with Brock's back-fired attempt to smear Sanders, you know, the one that generated
$1.2 MILLION for Bernie's campaign within 24 hours.

Bernie doesn't play that game, and voters love & respect him for that.

Secondly, Bernie has just begun to tap his HUGE funding base of OVER 1/4 MILLION individual
donors, who have made over one million donations; which far exceeds where Obama was with
his donor base at this time in the 2008 primary cycle.

Each one of those 250,000 donors can legally give up to $2700, yet the average donation at
this point is something like $31 each. Do the math, and it's easy to see how Bernie can raise
a butt-load of campaign cash, as needed. He's already amply demonstrated this.

As much as I admire grass roots mobilization and determination, I know for sure, "Jack the Giant Killer" is just a fairy tale.

How the "all-powerful" Koch Bros. hand-picked GOP candidate had to
drop out of the primary campaign with 0% support in the polls?

Your myopic assumption that "money is everything" is being proven
false, day by day, week by week, by candidate Bernie Sanders, and
the shifting political sands of restless pissed-off voters who are fed
up with politics as usual AKA "money buys political offices

the late Woody Hayes. Do you really think the Koch Bros. are going to call it quits because Walker was a flop?

What I am saying is that Koch's threw a ton of money at "their candidate"
and it meant NOTHING. <-- the opposite of 'everything' and the "ONLY thing"

Bernie is barely out polling Biden and he hasn't even officially declared.

"hard working white Americans", she is toast. Republicans hate her with the heat of a thousand white hot suns and even if Trump winds up getting the nod, the rank and file will not support her.

So if she makes overtures to middle of the road voters, she will almost certainly lose the support of the Sanders backers she is trying so desperately to appeal to with these weaselly oppositions to Keystone and TPP.

Without any crossover votes from republicans and with at best lukewarm support by pissed off Bernie Sanders people, she does not stand a chance.

But I trust her as far as I could throw her. She just beats an R.

FUCK the Repigs...fuck them all! But still want Bernie!

We shall get Bernie. Knock on wood.

we are never going to have meaningful discussions if people keep holding back their opinion...

To ridicule Bernie because rethugs will "hammer" him all the time makes me think you haven't been paying attention the last 20 years. I actually am far more concerned and have "committee fatigue" with HRC and she isn't even the general election candidate yet. I can only imagine what her administration would look like. Most of these people have developed a deep, long-lived dislike for her and they are going nowhere. If elected, we will be forced to live through endless debates and investigative committees on a scale that will make us look fondly on PBO's tenure.

FYI, nice way to finish it off with a little ageism. She is only 6 years younger than Bernie. She would still be the second oldest person to take the oath of office if she were elected (oldest was Raygun).

I thought all Bernie supporters were upper-middle-class Volvo driving elitists?

unless and until they have a REAL candidate who actually represents them, with honesty
and integrity.

The REASON 'little people' don't vote is because they've been utterly betrayed by 3rd Way
DINOs, like HRC & Co.

Now he's only appealing to poor lunkheads?

These contradictory reasons he is "unelectable" are certainly confusing.

Camp Weathervane will keep you updated as needed. No embarrassing questions please.

It's simply thoughtful evolution.

another 4 years.

Your record of predictions stands for itself...

You say "Bernie will get HAMMERED as a..." as if there's nothing Hillary Clinton will get HAMMERED for. I daresay Hillary's baggage will be shown to the country 24/7 from the time she's nominated til election day (should the nomination come to pass). The republicans and RNC can repeat "socialist" over and over until it comes out our ears. On the other hand, there are many more things they can say about Hillary so that it won't seem so repetitive, and therein lies the rub. If Hillary's the nominee, there's a new meme every day. If Bernie is, it's the same thing over and over until people stop listening.

It's so far from being the real world it's not funny. I put absolutely zero importance in what happens at DU. On the other hand, you say "It is already being thrown" and I've yet to see any commercials or campaign ads targeting Hillary Clinton specifically.

Maybe we watch different stuff.

now that you've given me all this spin that I have never, ever, EVER, read before
in this forum...

Wait a minute.

FUCK THIS MEME.

Hillary or any Democratic nominee will be "smashed" with that label too.

And as a result of the fear of that "hammering" and the surrender to GOP memes by by Democrats, we have a crumbling underfunded infrastructure, a tax system that allows the wealthy and corporations to pass along the tax burden to the rest of us, and a whole host of other problems.

Are we ever going to stand up to the puglicans?

Good question. Actually I think we are still keeping our powder dry.

My guess is the answer is no. They frown and say mean things. We just want to be friends, like Reagan, reaching across the aisle. (I don't actually remember all that reaching but...)

For the cost of the proposals.

Yes, I know, many here said that this cannot be done in Vermont. Yet the second Senator, Leahy, has a D after his name..

That would guarantee a GOP president.

Either he wants to get the votes of Democrats, or he does not.

This is why I've always objected to "general primaries." If you are a Democrat, or a Republican, or Green, you should be able to join other like minded and select your candidate.

He, and you, should know that running as a third party candidate yes, guarantee a Republican president. I still think that many who voted for Nader in 2000 share a responsibility for the Iraq fiasco and losses.

Oh, yes, there are many who say that they reside in a strong blue state like California, so voting for a third party candidate, or simply staying home if Hillary is the nominee, should not matter. This is a state that voted, twice, for Reagan and for Arnold as governors. Thus, I won't put it behind it if Trump get the votes.

It is very helpfull he's campaigning for the Dem nomination, and not running as a 3rd party candidate in the GE.

If he didn't, he'd be running as a third party candidate. In any case, I don't care about the label. I care about the actions. My fear is that Hillary is currently pulling a "reverse Romney." Romney moved way to the right to win the primary and then lost the general when he moved toward the center. Hillary is moving to the left rather dramatically. Will sheer veer to the center if she's the nominee and will that cost us the election?

during the Vietnam War. In GOP ads that will translate to "draft dodger". The GOP ad machine won't even have to make shit up like they did with Kerry.

How did that work out?

It would be just more wood on the fire the GOP would use to roast Sanders - that "draft dodging, tax raising, un-American, socialist."
Bill didn't have all that to work against.

Baby boomers may get all wadded over terms like "socialist" or "draft dodger", but the kids couldn't give two shits about that nonsense.

The thing is though, unfortunately "kids" don't give 2 shits about voting (as a group).

They're not going to vote for the sake of voting against something. That doesn't motivate the masses. People voted FOR Obama, not against McCain.

is making shit up, fyi

if we choose our candidates based on fear of what kind of crap the gop will make up, we will allow them to hold us hostage. i am sure they could make up some good crap about any of the five.

we just have to beat back on the lies

Then all those who were going to vote for Hillary because they are concerned about Bernie's chances in the general can now vote their conscience and pull the lever for Bernie in the primaries. I mean, since Hillary is gonna win no matter how they vote, why not?

For months before Bernie even threw his hat in the ring, I watched with dismay as the party leaders and big funders lined up behind Hillary. They look like lemmings headed off the cliff to me.

Hillary can't win the enthusiastic support of the anti-war movement, that Obama had, with her Iraq War vote. Some stubborn folks will refuse to vote for her.

Hillary can't win the enthusiastic support of the Occupy Wall Street crowd, with her $250,000 speeches to CitiBank and other banks (and no, she didn't donate all the money from speeches to for-profit companies to the Clinton Foundation).

Since I don't agree with the vast majority of pundits' assessment of Hillary, their views on Bernie don't carry much weight with me, either.

TV and TV ads are yesterday's thinking. 10% of the people gave up their cable service in the last year, and the rest don't watch commercials because they have a DVR. I'd much rather go into the GE with the excitement of young people on social media and IRL for Bernie, than a billion dollars worth of TV ads for Hillary.

If Dems fall for conventional thinking that we must have a billion dollars of TV ads and nominate Hillary, there will be a D candidate spending a billion bucks and a R candidate doing the same. One thing's for sure, one of those billion dollar campaigns will lose. Nominating Hillary is not a sure thing.

Bernie has the enthusiastic support of young people, as Obama did in 2008. If Democrats want to WIN, we'll follow their lead and they will convince their elders to show up at the polls and vote for the candidate young people believe is best for their future.

And quite frankly, John Lewis is is not a lemming. You might want to look him up.

"The authors of this letter are veteran grassroots organizers of Occupy Wall Street, and are joined by many energized brothers and sisters we have met along the way. In September 2011, our efforts changed the narrative of American politics, helping to focus it on the issues of our time: inequality, surrender to the power of concentrated wealth, the corruption of our democracy by moneyed interests, and the need for solutions as radical as our problems.

"We are signing as individuals hoping to kick-start a small ‘d’ democratic movement. People for Bernie won’t be a corporate-style, staff-driven, top-down enterprise with controlled messaging. It will reflect diverse constituencies from a broad range of movements, which in many cases haven’t seen the Democratic Party as a home for their deepest aspirations. It will reflect our commitment to fundamental change, not just a change of faces at the top of the political pyramid. People for Bernie will reflect the urgency of demand among the base for broader and more passionate grassroots political activity.

"We call on all other progressive forces to unite behind Sanders so we can have a united front in this important campaign."

http://www.peopleforbernie.com/

Remember that nice black guy, a Senator also, who thought he could become President? Whatever happened to him?

I agree that he has an uphill battle for the Democratic nomination, but if he gets that, I predict a landslide victory in the general election for him. Just MY opinion.

Then, toward the end, I realized you weren't.

the first few paragraphs, but -- as with a train wreck -- it's so difficult to look away from this morass of misinformation.

(Excuse me whilst I go update my IL...)

I feel that Bernie and his supporters harken back too much to FDR. The 'alphabet' governmental agencies, protectionism, the traditional welfare system, etc. are not really solutions to our modern problems. And I don't know if he has the legislative acumen of FDR. The 'New Deal' was the perfect solution for its day. The system had clearly failed, and the majority of people had lost quite a bit. Unemployment was horrific and sustained.

A lot of people have lost a lot during this past recession, but Obama was able to turn the tide. Who knows, if a Republican (instead of Obama) had been elected and reelected, maybe more radical measures would resonate with the masses. Even still, I don't think harkening back to FDR's blueprint would be the answer.

I am really beginning to think that he never intended to win. He is collecting money to stand on a soap box as long as he can and push the Democratic party (which he doesn't belong to) to the far left.

Every other politician knows the poor aren't worth the time it takes to acknowledge them. Just useless eaters wasting air. When is Bernie going to get with the program???

Bernie's Revolution might not make it for 2016...but seeds were sown and it isn't going to end with that Election...however it goes.

just trying to keep things organized.

Oh really? All those enthusiastic college kids are "the bottom"?

His supporters here are "the bottom"?

You should do some rewording.

Welcome to my IL (virtually every DUer who recommended your OP is there, so you'll be in good company).

I've voted for a number of candidates who "couldn't" and didn't win.