2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders won 44%-29% in a poll of people who actually watched the debate
https://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=6z4jimxu674gg&question=2These poll results reflect the focus group results favoring Sanders immediately after the debate:
Other polls that showed Clinton winning included people who who watched only clips or merely heard about the debate in the news and were, therefore, subject to influence by media coverage claiming that Clinton won.
These poll results indicate that Sanders' message was well received by actual debate viewers.
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
ZM90
(706 posts)All polls about the debate should be scientific and should poll *ONLY* people who actually watched the debate otherwise the data is mostly junk.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)So, sadly, people who didn't watch it matter too. Because who 'won the debate' doesn't matter, what matters is who wins the nomination, and they get to vote too. If that wasn't the case, the corporate wing wouldn't be pushing the 'Hillary Won!' line so hard.
The propaganda DOES matter in the long run, which is why they do it.
marym625
(17,997 posts)I'm truly tired of the debate debate. But, I have to K&R this.
#FeelTheBern #Bernie2016
DCBob
(24,689 posts)cprise
(8,445 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)for polling regarding the Democratic primaries and the Democratic nomination.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Most polls include at least Democratic-leaning Independents.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I see that mentioned sometimes in polls but not frequently. I suppose it depends on the state whether its open or not.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)It doesnt really matter.. this poll is flawed due to including Republicans if nothing else.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)It skews young and male, two areas where Bernie excels.
Baitball Blogger
(46,698 posts)Because many primaries are partisan. Democrats can only elect Democrats, Republicans get a sheet with only Republican candidates and everyone else is not allowed to vote for either main party during the primaries.
If there really are that many Indies that are on board with Bernie, perhaps you should take polls to find out how committed they are to electing him. If their votes will make a difference in the primaries, convince them to register as Democrats just for the primaries. They can always switch back. Give this short political dalliance a quirky marketing term and it might catch on.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Some have closed primaries where only registered Democrats or Republicans can vote. Some have open primaries where anyone can vote regardless of party affiliation. Some have somewhere-in-between primaries where Dems and Independents can vote for the Democratic nominee and Repubs and Independents can vote for the Republican nominee. Some states have caucuses, which are completely different than primaries. The Bernie group has a sticky that explains how each state works.
When polling, it's typical to include Independents along with registered party voters because of the variation across the country. Just makes things easier for the pollster.
Baitball Blogger
(46,698 posts)that is easier for the pollster. In other words, they do not accurately portray what is really going on. If I were a candidate running for office, would I allow this gazpacho approach to frame my political viability? No. I would not.
What I would do is look to the states with a heavy Indie population that have CLOSED primaries. I would poll those Indies directly to determine their passion for the candidate. And then, if their numbers are considerable, I would begin a marketing strategy to convince them to switch parties, just to vote in the primaries.
Here, I'll throw a state in that probably fits the description: Florida.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)So you can get that information without having to do your own polls.
Baitball Blogger
(46,698 posts)I'm an Indie and I would be a Switch hitter if I thought it would make a difference.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)There are 16 states with open primaries. I live in one of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States
I vote Democratic, but, since it's not required, I've never registered with the party and I don't know any average person who does.
I guess I'm probably listed as an "independent" on voter polls, even though I'm not.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...was saturated with countless stories about how Clinton won the debate. Whether she won or not is a moot point.
The issue is that this overwhelming "Hillary won" consensus saturated the airwaves and of course, people assumed she won because of those constant media messages.
So, when people are polled--sure, more people will say she won the debate.
If a pollster called here and asked me who won the debate, I'd say Hillary. So what. I'm still voting for Bernie Sanders.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Sorry, more BS clickbait, no pun intended. Nice "solution" though.
Bernblu
(441 posts)has an equal or higher rating (C+) than than two of the polling firms with polls showing Clinton winning the debate: YouGov (C+) and Gravis Marketing (C). Clinton supporters can't tout the polls that they like while mocking the polls they don't like.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
femmedem
(8,201 posts)and they also skewed male, but it's still some good news for us Bernie supporters.
Baitball Blogger
(46,698 posts)because they have access to information. With a touch of a button they can review each candidate's platforms and history.
That's quite amazing when you combine their strength with people who lived through the era and are voting based on their experience, especially if both groups reach the same conclusions.
delrem
(9,688 posts)Because the video editing started happening before the debate was over.
There are teams of pros going over it frame by frame.
This is a $billion$ election and we're just seeing the beginning of it.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Could we quit talking about 'winning the debate'?
Look, the important part is how the voting is going to change. So let's see what regular who you gonna vote for polls run entirely after the debate come out. (I noticed the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll actually ran from 10/10 to 10/14, so most of the responses were probably from before the debate. So we probably need to wait a week or so to see polls that didn't start collecting data until AFTER 10/13.)
DCBob
(24,689 posts)which shows Hillary gaining ground.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/16/new-poll-shows-clinton-recovers-lost-ground-in-n-h/
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)So if Bernie backers want to call that a "win" I'm good with it
questionseverything
(9,646 posts)105 polled over the age of 65
she out polls him by 7 people
Progressive dog
(6,900 posts)they actually watched the debate. That poll was so bad, it had to infer their gender and region of the country.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)are likely to be disproportionately BS supporters. After all, they were the ones hoping the debate would bring BS to the public and cause everyone to swoon and change the polls to favor BS.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)excited to see Clinton "destroy" everyone else in the debate.
treestar
(82,383 posts)A lot of Hillary supporters are not on DU and may not have watched it. They didn't think it would make or break Hillary.
It was Bernie's who relied on the debates to cause a huge BS surge once Bernie's wonderful magic was seen by the nation.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)So let's see - Hillary supporters don't go to her rallies, don't vote in internet polls, and now they don't even watch TV programs where their candidate is appearing!??
And lord knows, they aren't here on DU in significant numbers. Where are they???? What do they do all day?? I'm seriously beginning to wonder...