How Many Debates? Opinion on That Could Change.
Calls for more than six debates before the Democratic primaries have been constant. All such calls are based on a belief that more debates will benefit some candidate in some way. That's not necessarily true, though.
We've had one. Supporters of Bernie Sanders are claiming that he won the debate, based on online polling taken the night of the debate. Clinton supporters are pointing at polling done after the debates and saying that she won.
Next week, we'll have a different set of polls to look at - polls that try to measure voter intentions. What those polls show will provide some evidence of the effect of the debates and the press coverage of those debates on voters. That's far more important than questions about who won or didn't win.
Odds are, in my opinion, that Hillary Clinton gets a bump in those polls and widens the gap between her and Sanders. If that happens, the second debate will be very interesting. If Clinton gets an additional bump following that debate, I think the discussion will change. If the third debate leads to even more improvement in Clinton's polling numbers, the call for more debates will suddenly go silent.
The idea that more polls are good for candidates who are behind is questionable, and a trend will develop after three debates have taken place. If that trend is in favor of the leading candidate, it is unlikely that additional debates will change the trend. A single debate isn't enough to show a trend. That takes a couple more of them that show the same result, more or less.
Each debate attracts some new viewers, but it's mostly politically savvy and interested people who watch these debates. For the vast majority of voters, they just aren't that interesting. After three or four primary debates, the viewer numbers will begin to flag, with only the most dedicated people tuning in for the remaining ones.
The trend will develop or not. If it does, there will be more clarity about the state of the Democratic primary races. No amount of online discussion about debates will have much to do with polling results, frankly. The numbers just aren't high enough. A large majority of voters neither watch debates nor participate in any online discussion. They make their decisions based on other factors, many of which don't make a lot of political sense.
I remember watching the JFK-Nixon debates. Most voters did not watch them. Like today, they saw clips from them on the evening news on whatever network they preferred. What they saw was Nixon sweating and looking pale and anxious. That was what people took away from those two candidates debating. Appearances matter. News clips matter. Voters matter, whether or not they saw a debate.
Debates are overrated as a way to see how the campaigns are doing.
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