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Renew Deal

(81,844 posts)
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 01:07 PM Oct 2015

538: Joe Biden Made The Right Call

1. It’s late … really late
2. Biden would have had to run as an outsider
3. Biden is trapped ideologically
4. Biden’s polling is bad where it matters
5. Biden’s polling is good where it doesn’t matter

tl;dr

Few presidential primary candidates have entered the race as late as Biden would have. It’s possible that Biden, as vice president, might have been able to overcome the pitfalls of past late entries. On the other hand, everything we do know suggests Biden would have had a short, hard road. Biden made the right move.

Go to 538 to read the full analysis: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joe-biden-will-not-run-for-president

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538: Joe Biden Made The Right Call (Original Post) Renew Deal Oct 2015 OP
Yes, he did make the right move. eom BlueCaliDem Oct 2015 #1
Biden always loses to a non-wounded Hillary BeyondGeography Oct 2015 #2
Good analysis,as usual. 538 is my bible sufrommich Oct 2015 #3
Wait a second. Did he say he would NEVER run for the Presidency??? randome Oct 2015 #4

BeyondGeography

(39,345 posts)
2. Biden always loses to a non-wounded Hillary
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 01:11 PM
Oct 2015

The wild card here was the email issue plus two months of flat-footed campaigning by her. Once she stabilized things and her numbers went back up all of a sudden the window issue became SUPER-HUGE.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
4. Wait a second. Did he say he would NEVER run for the Presidency???
Wed Oct 21, 2015, 01:17 PM
Oct 2015

Sorry, just trying to apply the earlier Elizabeth-Warren-is-running logic to Joe. Doesn't really work, though, does it?

Ah, well. Joe, you did good. As Josey Wales said, "I got no complaints."
[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]

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