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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumJoe Biden Ran in the Invisible Primary, and Lost to Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden Ran in the Invisible Primary, and Lost to Hillary Clinton
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/22/upshot/joe-bidens-decision-and-hillary-clintons-victory.html?_r=1
OCT. 21, 2015
Nate Cohn
..............Mr. Bidens decision was informed by personal considerations, as he said Wednesday in bowing out, not just the cold calculus of building a national campaign. But the reality was that he would have struggled for the same reason that other traditional, establishment-friendly candidates decided not to run. The support from party operatives, donors and officials wasnt quite there. The party had already decided, for Mrs. Clinton.
Thats why there was no grand movement to draft Mr. Biden into the race, even after the F.B.I. began its investigation of Mrs. Clintons emails, and even after Mr. Biden began to reconsider a presidential run. My colleagues Carl Hulse and Jason Horowitz reported that many of Mr. Bidens likeliest allies were discouraging him. So were prominent public figures from Team Obama, like David Axelrod. There were few or no defections from Mrs. Clintons camp.
What has happened over the last few months is exactly what one would anticipate in a Party Decides framework. As my colleague Brendan Nyhan wrote in August, Mr. Biden was already running for president in the invisible primary. Like most candidates who test the waters, he didnt find enough support to justify entering the race.
What would happen among all Democratic voters if Mr. Biden
**Several graphs are here (but I am unable to transfer these)
.
..............A united coalition of moderate, nonwhite and older voters represents a clear majority of the Democratic primary electorate. Mrs. Clinton took a commanding lead of 57 percent to 31 percent over Mr. Sanders in an average of seven September surveys that removed Mr. Biden from the equation. Similarly, an Upshot model from earlier this year suggested that Mrs. Clinton would have defeated Mr. Obama, 62 to 38 percent, in 2008 if black voters had voted like demographically similar nonblack voters (like Hispanic voters)....................
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Joe Biden Ran in the Invisible Primary, and Lost to Hillary Clinton (Original Post)
riversedge
Oct 2015
OP
stonecutter357
(12,682 posts)1. K&R!
peace13
(11,076 posts)2. Well if he was running , the fact escaped me.
We each write the story so whatever makes you feel good, go with that. Just promise me that if Hillary does not win the nomination, that she steps down like the respected woman that she is. May there be no repeat of the last debacle!
Keep on keeping on!
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)3. His failure to enter the race and compete early is what stopped him
In the bad days of summer when the media turned on Clinton, he would have been competative. He waited too long.