2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWe'll have to wait until next week's polling results
to get a good picture of what Biden's announcement has on poll results. Right now, most available polling still has Biden in the mix, including some recently released polls. A few polls have measured opinion with Biden out of consideration, but even those do not provide as accurate results as next week's polling will show.
It's hard to wait, but waiting is necessary. On Monday and Tuesday, polling done after Biden's announcement will be available, for the first time with Biden's name not available on the polls. Until then, we're still guessing about the results. Once the most recent polls are available, the charts tracking trends will probably have a new look.
It will be interesting, to be sure.
TexasBushwhacker
(20,148 posts)And barring any catastrophe during the Benghazi hearing (witchhunt) HRCs numbers will still go up, as will Sanders. Fewer people will be undecided. My guess is Chaffee will drop out before the debate on November 6th. I think O'Malley will stay in to get his views heard. It's not that Webb and Chaffee are polling big numbers, but fewer people on the stage means more time for everyone. Then the virtual debate hosted by MoveOn will probably attract a lot of cord cutting Millenials, and then finally the first debate on broadcast TV on Nov 16th will also be watched by cord cutters - Millenials and folks to broke to afford cable LIKE ME!
MineralMan
(146,262 posts)After seeing his rigid performance in the first debate, I understand why. Chafee, too, is a non-player. The 1% each of them may have had in the polls will barely shift anyone's position.
O'Malley is a bit more serious, but he still has an extreme minority position. Biden's share of the polling is a game changer in this primary campaign, frankly. Where his supporters go will make an enormous difference, and I think we all know where the bulk of his supporters will move. He and Hillary Clinton were on the same page, politically, really. I'm sure at least 75% and probably more like 85% of his supporters will switch to Clinton.
We'll know next week. Of course, there are still months before the first Primary or caucus. Things could happen to change the picture, but it looks like it won't be the Benghazi hearing. Hillary Clinton is doing just fine there from a Democratic voter's point of view.
Biden was the key in keeping Clinton's national polling lower that it might have been. With him gone, I think we'll see roughly a 60%-30% split in the percentages, with the remaining 10% being divided between undecided and O'Malley. That's my best estimate, based on preliminary polling with Biden not in the mix.
I think you'll see that split, or pretty close, in all of the national polls next week, and I think it will hold until the next debate. If Hillary doesn't blow it in that debate, which seems likely, that will be about the split right up to the Iowa and NH voting.
I can't predict what the polling will be in NH and IA next week. I don't follow polling in those early caucus and primary states that closely. They could change, too, though, in a similar way, with Biden out of the picture.
moabfan
(48 posts)because Biden and Bernie see eye-to-eye on most current issues, including higher education (he all but endorsed Bernie's idea instead of Clinton's idea)
The other 1/2 is ABC, and trying to decide.
MineralMan
(146,262 posts)Both candidates will get a bump, but Hillary will get a larger one, I think. We'll see when the polls appear.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)MineralMan
(146,262 posts)Good luck with that attitude.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)What would you have me do with poll data, change or modify my decisions or support accordingly? I'm supporting Sanders regardless of what the herd does. This poll propaganda will only influence the weakest of mind and character.
MineralMan
(146,262 posts)An attitude that polls don't matter is ignoring history. I wouldn't suggest that you change your opinion or choice of candidate. That's up to everyone to decide for themselves. Polling simply reflects what people are thinking. It's important only for observation of trends and public opinion.
You have the attitude that polling has no significance, which is why you said "Fuck the polls." I'm wishing you good luck with that attitude. Your own decision about whom to support is irrelevant to me, really. You share that decision with a certain percentage of the public. It is that percentage that is reflected in the polling.
Polling matters to me. I'm an observer of elections, as well as being a voter in them. My attitude is that the voters will decide who wins. I won't be disappointed. They will decide. When they do, I will support the Democratic Party's nominee for President.
In the primaries, I support Hillary Clinton. You support someone else. That's just fine. The difference in attitude is that I won't be disappointed, regardless of who wins, and will enthusiastically support the nominee. You will be disappointed, perhaps, if your candidate doesn't prevail. That attitude is what I wish you good luck with.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)Good luck with that.
MineralMan
(146,262 posts)understand how the candidates are doing in public opinion. I need no luck. The polls will reflect public opinion, and I'll be informed about how the campaigns are doing. No luck is involved, since I don't have any particular thing pending on the basis of polling. I want to know how things are going.
See, I think both Clinton and Sanders would be OK as President. I don't agree with either of them 100%, nor do I expect to. Either will work toward progressive goals, but their success will depend on the makeup of Congress. Congress is my real interest, not the presidency. It always has been, because I understand the constitutional limitations of the President.
I watch politics closely. I work to help elect Democrats to office. Sometimes I win. Sometimes I lose. Either way, I will still be observing the situation. I have one vote, and give of my time during election years to try to get Democrats elected. In the meantime, I observe and discuss.
Nitram
(22,768 posts)I don't know how you keep your wits about you in the fact of the mob hysteria of the rabble, but I commend you for it.
MineralMan
(146,262 posts)so I try to guard them well so I don't lose my wits. Thanks!
Nitram
(22,768 posts)Keep up the good fight!
MineralMan
(146,262 posts)I'm trying hard to avoid that.