$1000.00 says Hillary wins the nomination.

I will give my winnings to charity and document it. I am not in this for pecuniary gain or filthy lucre. If Hillary loses I will give the poster who takes the wager $1,000.00 to do with it whatever he or she wants.

that the money backs Hillary. It's just that you think it's a good thing and I don't.

The betting markets would back Bernie or Lucifer if it looked more likely than not Bernie or Lucifer would win.


That's kind of the whole point of wagering.

She,definitely is going all the way to the White House!

However I do try not to cast the first stone. For instance I generally leave the laudatory Bernie threads alone but will defend my posts and threads.

In any case, predictions markets are only as good as the time you are looking at them, but they are going in the right direction. 89% and 55% is pretty phenomenal.

Changed it.

Unfortunately just posting good HRC news rattles them .

...well, at least not in the U.S.

is at 11%).

I think Predictwise does a good job, and I am really pleased that Sanders has risen to the third most likely to be our next president when considering all candidates from all parties.

Sanders is projected as a more likely president than Trump, more than twice as likely as Carson, four times as likely as Christie or Cruz.

If you had told me 6 months ago that an Independent Senator from Vermont who self-identifies as a Democratic Socialist would be considered an equally likely bet as Jeb! Bush to be our next president less than 100 days before the Iowa caucuses, I'd have thought you were high.

eom

him for every other reason you could imagine EXCEPT that he's too moderate

Maybe Dubya was the smart one, lol...

until the last several days and the bottom has recently fallen out of the Jeb! market.

Likewise, if you follow Predictwise, Sanders has been making a very steady rise with no real sign that he's peaked.

Do you know if anyone has been graphing the ebbs and flows of Predictwise's projections?

Betting/predictions markets tell us a lot... I know folks think I post them in a spirit of triumphalism... But they are of value, more value than polls...

Folks criticize me as if I don't understand they are fluid and aren't absolutely dispositive...I know all that...

Here's a link to peer reviewed research. It indicates that while predictions/betting markets are good predictors, just simply asking folks who they think will win is even better:


http://forecasters.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

game for the wealthy.

Still think the GE is 50, but it makes sense she is above 50% at this time.