Clinton surges in early states

Hillary Clinton now has the support of 46% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents in the Hawkeye State, barely ahead of Bernie Sanders with 43% support.

Clinton’s narrow lead in Iowa, while it is within the margin of error, is nevertheless a significant turnaround for Clinton, who trailed Sanders by 10 points in the September YouGov/CBS News poll of Iowa Democrats. Few other polls showed Clinton trailing at the time, but the movement in Clinton’s favor is consistent with recent national and state polls.

Joe Biden announced he would not run for president on Thursday, while the fieldwork for the poll was underway. The figures cited for Clinton and Sanders include voters who initially picked Biden but chose Clinton or Sanders as a second choice in a follow-up question. Biden supporters mostly go to Clinton, though Sanders and Clinton benefit equally in New Hampshire. However, Clinton has increased her support in each state by between five to nine points even when Biden is included. Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb also dropped out of the race last week, but neither had significant support.

The former Secretary of State remains behind in another first-in-the-nation primary state, New Hampshire, where Sanders holds a commanding 15-point lead. However, the Vermont senator led by 22 points in September, and with Biden out of the picture Clinton’s support is up 9 points. Other polls have shown a close race in New Hampshire since the Democratic debate on October 13th, with several putting Clinton ahead.

Clinton retains an overwhelming advantage among African American voters in South Carolina, helping her achieve to a massive 43-point lead overall. Sanders actually leads Clinton among white Democrats in South Carolina, 51% to 44%. But Clinton leads Sanders among black Democrats by 79 points. Here she also particularly benefits from Biden's exit: 92% of would-be Biden supporters in South Carolina name Clinton as a second choice.



https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/25/clinton-surges-early-states-carson-levels-trump-io/