2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMorning Consult: HC: 53% BS: 26%
2016 National Democratic Primary
Asked of 688 Democratic registered voters (October 22-25, 2015)
Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
Bernie Sanders (D) 26%
Martin O'Malley (D) 5%
Other 6%
Undecided 10%
http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/151006_topline_trend_v2_AP.pdf
Conducted partially post Benghazi. I think there are still more positive effects for Hillary to come in next polls.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)Next we will look at a list of names that have been talked about as potential Democratic candidates for President. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of.
Hillary Clinton
Total Favorable 46%
Total Unfavorable 51%
No Opinion / Never Heard Of 4%
------------------------
Very Favorable 23%
Somewhat Favorable 22%
Somewhat Unfavorable 12%
Very Unfavorable 39%
Heard Of, No Opinion 3%
Never Heard Of 0%
Bernie Sanders
Total Favorable 45%
Total Unfavorable 34%
No Opinion / Never Heard Of 22%
-----------------------------------------
Very Favorable 17%
Somewhat Favorable 27%
Somewhat Unfavorable 14%
Very Unfavorable 20%
Heard Of, No Opinion 13%
Never Heard Of 8%
Martin O'Mally
Total Favorable 21%
Total Unfavorable 31%
No Opinion / Never Heard Of 48%
----------------------------------
Very Favorable 6%
Somewhat Favorable 15%
Somewhat Unfavorable 16%
Very Unfavorable 15%
Heard Of, No Opinion 21%
Never Heard Of 27%
Joe Turner
(930 posts)with Hillary's full court press smears on Bernie and in the wake of the Bengazi fiasco, I'm surprised her lead is not greater. Hmm barely over 50% in her own party after years of setting the table for the presidency.. This is not good news for Hillary. It's obvious many people have reservations about her..and they are not unwarranted.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Or rainbow ponies?
Obvious wall street misinformation
Go Hillary!
Good results for Hillary.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)Sanders added a point though, from the previous poll. (correction)
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)It'll be interesting to see how he does in the next debate.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Must have been that rousing speech In IA last Saturday. See if you go after Hillary you gain a point.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)A bit worrisome for Sanders, I think.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)an hour with 10 times the respondents?
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)Look at the dates. It was compiled today. That's normal.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)And what's with not letting people vote more than once or twice - or ten times?
George II
(67,782 posts)....weed out the children who can't vote and in the case of polls about Democratic candidates they eliminate republicans and people who can't vote in Democratic primaries.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Cue the Poll Truthers.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Their selection is randomized probably better than a traditional poll and their sample size is so large that any skew due to double voting is probably very very low.
If you think it is a polling strategy that can be gamed, perhaps you'd share with us a step by step tutorial on how to go about it?
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)more than once from various devices.....for starters.
"Why bother with science" when you got the Internet is your real question!
kristopher
(29,798 posts)As for using different devices, maybe you missed the concept behind the ability to work with extremely large samples and how that will serve to diminish any effect from someone wanting to game the process with multiple votes?
I'm guessing you've never actually done any survey work?
I don't know all that much about Google's method, but from what I do know about the way they get people to participate, it seems innovative. Having known a couple of people who worked for them in research areas, I'd be willing to bet that they are able to get "science" to work for them pretty well in the realm of polling and statistics.
Face it, like everyone else lately you're just being a bit of a political hack. I don't mean it as an insult since primary season always seems to turn most of the normally rational citizens of DU into political hacks - probably even me.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)...you haven't got a clue about the topic on which you opine.
BTW - Yes, I'm trained and experienced in designing, from the ground up, "scientific" polling.
The Bernie Babies will be even crankier this week.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Hillary Clinton 51.6%, Bernie Sanders 25.6%, Martin O'Malley 1.1%
okasha
(11,573 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Get some sleep!
kenn3d
(486 posts)Really?
She doesn't seem to be ahead by 27 points in these first two states, now does she? And if she loses both IA and NH, that spread in the national polls could change pretty quickly... I'm sure she knows this.
The Clinton campaign has had a rough Spring and Summer no doubt, but re-assuming the inevitability thing now is not only unbecoming, it seems pretty premature as well imo.
A whole lot of people are turning out for Bernie Sanders. Many are new and rejuvenated voters, independents and even fed-up former Republicans. The pollsters may not be counting all of us yet. So don't let your gloat get stuck in your throat.
Anything can happen.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Even the small northern white states will swing back to Hillary.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)Biden announced he wouldn't be running. Look at the underlying data for those charts. That will change shortly. The polls those states' charts are based on are old enough not to reflect the recent news and events.
Anytime you look at a chart like those, you have to look at the underlying data.
The latest poll (CBS) did NOT include Biden:
New Hampshire:
Sanders 54
Clinton 39
Biden 0
Iowa:
Clinton 46
Sanders 43
Biden 0
(within MoE - a statistical tie)
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Customized
-- 6/1 to current
-- All polls
-- Less smoothing option
wilsonbooks
(972 posts)Gallups 2007 national presidential polling strongly points to Clinton winning the 2008 Democratic nomination. Barring something unusual or otherwise unexpected, she is well positioned for the 2008 Democratic primaries. Obama has not been an insignificant rival: he came within single digits of tying Clinton for the lead at two points this spring. But he has recently lost ground and is now in the weakest position relative to Clinton that he has been in all year.
Clintons lead over Obama has expanded to nearly 30 points in Gallups latest poll, conducted Oct. 12-14: 50% vs. 21%.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I guess any glimmer of hope helps.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)And she still has the same high unfavorables.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)MineralMan
(146,192 posts)She has a 2:1 margin in the most recent poll result. That is what is truly significant.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)The most relevant stat with the Clinton campaign is the unfavorable rating. People do not vote for candidates they DO NOT LIKE.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)Thanks, Yogi! That quote is really useful sometimes.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)doesn't change the impact they will have on the outcome.
Not even a teeny tiny bit.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)"Regarding swing states in 2016, Quinnipiac University's July and August Swing State Polls "
Colorado
62% - 34% not honest and trustworthy;
52% - 46% has strong leadership qualities
57% - 39% does not care about their needs and problems
Iowa
59% - 33% not honest and trustworthy,
52% - 43% is a strong leader
55% - 39% does not care about their needs and problems
Virginia
55% - 39% is not honest and trustworthy
54% - 42% is a strong leader
50% - 45% does not care about their needs and problems
Florida
37% favorable - 55% unfavorable
64% - 32% not honest and trustworthy.
Ohio
36% favorable 54% unfavorable rating
60% - 34% is not honest and trustworthy.
Pennsylvania
38% favorable - 55% unfavorable rating
63% - 32% is not honest and trustworthy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/favorability-ratings-show-hillary-clinton-is-unelectable_b_8388316.html
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)kenn3d
(486 posts)Comparing with the previous Morning Consult poll:
Clinton -3
Sanders +2
Change in spread= Sanders +5 since last week.
But don't panic...
Anything can happen.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)But don't panic.
RandySF
(57,636 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Fav/Unfav/Don't know
HRC: 46/51/4
O'M: 21/31/48
BS: 45/34/22
Those are great numbers for Bernie. He also leads the 2nd choice category with 28% compared to Clinton's 20%. Still a long ways to go in this election.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)Everyone knows it will be Hilliary and Bernie. The bottom 3 constitute 21%. I wonder where that's gonna go? O'Malley is a lot like Bernie, so I would suspect Bernie will get a large percentage of the 21%. Bernie admitted on TV that 20-40% still don't know about him. And the best for last.......we still have a year to go, and 5 months to primary?
So the numbers don't mean squat to me. Actually I'm quite pleased with Bernie's numbers, especially in NH and IA.
Hey, at this stage of the game, I quite happy.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Martin will overtake Samders if he has enough funds to keep at it in the Endless Campaign.