That is Clinton's wheelhouse. I think it's safe to say her lead would not be anywhere near that large if a representative sample were taken and all age groups were evenly distributed. This is why polls need to be scrutinized.

"Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who
participate in primary elections."

Page 4:
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c83c0429-6c12-47a7-ac86-9bd1beab9bfb.pdf

which would probably skew it somewhat to the older voter but that's the way it is... right?

That is an uncomfortably large lead.

In those precincts where not enough Sanders supporters are present, the second choice is key!

Just look at the female numbers! female voters (73% to 16%) Dayum!

Oh SNAP!

Thats gonna leave a mark!

"Clinton is second choice of 68% of Sanders supporters, while 19% say O’Malley would be their second choice."

More info here: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c83c0429-6c12-47a7-ac86-9bd1beab9bfb.pdf

"Four-in-ten (40%) Democratic caucusgoers say they are completely settled on the candidate they
will support on February 1st. For comparison, this is double the number of likely Republican caucusgoers
who said the same (19%) in a Monmouth poll released yesterday. Another 37% of Democrats have a
strong preference but are willing to consider other candidates, 10% have a slight preference and 13% are
largely undecided. Clinton’s support appears to be more solid than the Sanders vote. Among Clinton
voters, 49% are completely decided and 35% have a strong preference, with the remaining 16% looking at other candidates. Among Sanders voters, just 27% are completely decided and 47% have a strong
preference, with 24% looking at other candidates."

"Hillary Clinton holds a very strong 88% favorable and 8% unfavorable rating among likely
caucusgoers. Bernie Sanders also has an extremely positive rating at 77% favorable and 11%
unfavorable. Martin O’Malley also has positive numbers at 50% favorable and 14% unfavorable, but
36% of Iowa Democrats feel they don’t know enough to rate him. Larry Lessig earns a negative 9%
favorable and 18% unfavorable rating, with 74% having no opinion."

"Iowa Democrats tend to be satisfied with the direction of their party. Nearly 8-in-10 (79%) say
the national Democratic Party is doing a good job representing the concerns of voters like them while
only 12% say it is doing a bad job. This is a far cry from the sentiments of Hawkeye State Republicans in
yesterday’s Monmouth University Poll – just 32% of likely GOP caucusgoers feel their national party is
doing a good job while a majority of 57% say it is doing a bad job."

I am impressed that she doesn't sit back on her laurels. She is working hard, is speaking at meetings, attending town hall meetings, on the stomp, preparing for debates and makes every appearance she can fit into her schedule. She is developing and clarifying policy. She is amazing under pressure from the Right, She is NOT basing her Presidential Run on her well liked husband. She is not acting like there is any inevitable coronation, as is constantly touted here. She is working damn hard and has earned every single polling vote she is getting.

While the opposition relies on spamming facebook polls.

Amateurs.

Haven't they been polling much closer than this?

That gif is scary.

hit a speed bump lol

it would already have 200 rec's eh?

Poor Bernie fans have a sad today LOL

But she had a really good week overall.

I think the polls are in no way settled and expect more changes in both directions.

YouGov,which polled much closer and has been an outlier throughout the campaign has a rating of c+

And 76% of their sample was over the age of 50. 7% of the data was from the age group 18-34.

This is a base hit, not a home run.

IOW the age group that always shows up to vote.

I looked at Iowa exit polls from 2008 and 18-34 should be closer to 25-30%, not 7%. If that's true this poll is definitely a bit misaligned.

I don't doubt she has a lead, but polls can be wrong regardless of which side they show in the lead. This one is an outlier.

And the same percentage were over 65.

eom

Argue the merits of polling mostly older voters.

But that would save you the effort of dismissing an argument without actually interfacing it and then what would you have to do with your life?

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 22
to 25, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 400 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted
in at least one of the last two state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses
in February 2016. This includes 300 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 100 contacted by a live
interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and
analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who
participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list). For
results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum
margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups
(see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

http://tinyurl.com/qxfhehg

So it also favors land lines too. Yeah, I can't possibly see how that wouldn't skew a poll in 2015. Maybe they should take three quarters of their responses from telegraph?

In a serious vein here is the contact info:

Contact:
PATRICK MURRAY
732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office)
pdmurray@monmouth.edu
Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick


I have contacted Gallup and quinnipiac and they have responded to me. I even posted the responses here.

That is actually kind of insulting and I really don't appreciate your tone. Are you actually hoping to get Democrats to support Hillary if she wins the nomination or drive them away? Maybe you should ask yourself why you actually come here.

Except you seem to forget that you used the same tone and argument Before my comment. i.e. Suggesting I leave and post something on facebook. Context actually does mean something. But you know, no need to trouble yourself on such small matters.


And a murder analogy...? Wow. Just wow.

So...

Also 'mote' doesn't refer to sawdust, it refers to any small object. Common mistake.

On all counts.

You get to count your comment as "jocular" but my retort is somehow insulting. Lovely. You most be so well liked.

I'm finished with you now.

There are literally a dozen or so versions. When I pointed it out to him he still refused to withdraw it.

Make up anything about Hillary but get insulted if you ox gets gored!

Now where have I heard that before?

I call total BS.not that she is ahead but she is ahead by that high.

of course clinton supporters will push it.

...but feel free to go with the "biased media" conspiracy theory.

..would you say the same thing?

I would question any poll that put Bernie at 41 points over Hillary. As much as I would want that to be true, I would have to stare long and hard at the methodology.

I doubt you are as burdened by that impulse though.

And I do not like your attitude or your implications.

I did not trumpet the internet polls that stated that Bernie won the debate because I thought they weren't really representative. I thought he did well and I thought it spoke to some kind of enthusiasm but I did not take it as a victory because I thought they were off.

Given what I have seen in the past though you seem less concerned with such things.

As a Hillary supporter I am ignoring this poll. As much as I want it to be true the sample seems skewed toward older voters. Exit polls from 2008 show 18-34 as much more than 7%.

We have to be fair - skewed polls are wrong whether they are in our candidates favor or the opponents.

my DEMOCRATIC party candidate for the nomination of the democratic party vs a non-democratic party candidate?

Do you know that many Hillary supporters were driven off of the Democratic Underground site for the crime of supporting Hillary Clinton?

Do you know that we are a tiny minority in a sea of Bernie fans that pack all the juries which explains the bannings?

Do you realize that we democrats that care about our fellow citizens are called lackeys of wall street and tools of the rich by the majority of people on this board?

Spare me your false outrage, please.

If my democratic candidate is pulling ahead of yours Im going to shout it from the rooftops until Bernie backers silence me again!

Today and everyday!

Have a good day, I know I'm going to!

Images of her as a lynch-mistress, sexist mysogynistic slop over and over.


Some Bernie jurors deleted the most benign posts of mine over the weekend.
I wrote to the admins et voila! Reinstated.

You have a GREAT day!

Thanks, you too!

and the reason that they are always so dismissive of comments like yours is based on pure projection. They have no problem lying, and so they assume the same applies to all.

And in this case I am going to refuse to belive that based on my wishes.

I am going to consider "sub-thread insulting person" a statistical outlier rather than a representation of the whole.

You play up good news for your candidate, play down the bad.

right

that isn't so stupid?

This party train is going ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE!!!

How about he continues to impact the debate positively.

I would rather see Bernie vs Hillary debates for the next three debates. Really, really differentiate between each other... coporatist vs populist.

I think he and his supporters would beg to differ.

His recent polls is still have him stagnating at 1%. Bernie does offer more, talked the talk, walked that walk to prove that he is who he says he is. People are still saying O'Malley who? in my state when I do some informal polling.

I'm glad O'Malley is running, but he just needs more national exposure. O'malley just isn't getting the opportunities he needs. He can try again in 2020 when he has more experience in his resume.

O'Malley ended the death penalty, raised the minimum wage, invested in education when everyone else was cutting it, protected transgender citizens, supported the dreamers, and banned fracking in his state. Other candidate say the right things, O'Malley went and did them.



BTW, recent polls have him at 5%-9%. And it is 4 months until any votes are cast.

That seems logical?

All our candidates are good people and I would support any of the three in the general. O'Malley is running a lean campaign and has more exposure nationally now than he has ever had, it would be foolish to drop out at this point. He also has started picking up steam in Iowa a bit.

Because of your post, I'm going to go chip in $5 to O'Malley.

Heads Sanders wins and tails O'Malley loses.

Personally I like O'Malley in the race but the fact of the matter is that he really isn't pulling very big numbers right now. I think this poll does underrate both O'Malley and Sanders because it overrepresents the 50+ crowd, but I do not think O'Malley dropping out would give Bernie all that much of a bump.

I expected a significant bump from her big week last week but this is much better that I was expecting.

Looks like its all over but the "shouting".

Must see TV right there!

I'm a Hillary supporter but O'Malley is a really good Democrat with a lot to say about the direction our party should be going. He adds to the debate and a credit to the party!

This HRC supporter thinks O'Malley brings a lot to the campaign and the conversation.

and support Hillary for the nomination???

...his goal isn't to campaign and win; it's to campaign and press his set of issues. No reason he can't do that indefinitely.

whats that say about your issues?

That would be kind of embarrassing really.

It could even be an outlying poll, but it's an indication of what's happening in Iowa.

With Biden out and the speech she made there, along with Biden's supporters walking out after Bernie spoke, it could well be that the tide has turned in Iowa.

I'll be watching for other polls to see if this poll is in keeping with others.

In any case, this has to come as a shock to Bernie supporters.

I expected a bump but...OMG!

This is like a shifting of the ground!

Hillary is crushing the opposition!

they are out 7 days a weeks making face to face contacts. Hillary has a large ground game in Iowa.

camp. Guess not.

The ones that Bernie fans were making fun of just the other day.

As an organizer I start from where the world is, as it is, not as I would like it to be.
Saul Alinsky

The difference between Hillary supporters and Bernie fans.

And clickbait polls on Facebook, etc are bunk.

Happy days are here again!

More national polls will be coming out today and tomorrow, as well. It's going to be an interesting week, I think. Benghazi, Biden, and the Debate are going to jolt polling numbers heavily. It's a HillaryQuake, I think. Or maybe a ClintonQuake.

This thing is over before it even got started.

Great news!

This Poll carries a little more weight in that it contacted likely Democratic caucus-goers, but that's one hell of a jump. Still a ways to go before they come for the piano, but damn...... Also found it interesting that more people have seen/met Hillary than the other candidates. Guess a few large Sanders gatherings doesn't beat an aggressive ground campaign. Seems like Hillary wants to get this Primary thing over quickly so they can focus on the General.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c83c0429-6c12-47a7-ac86-9bd1beab9bfb.pdf

Let's wait until the next Des Moines Register poll, considered the jewel of Iowa polls. The last Des Moines Register poll taken October 16 - 19 showed Clinton with the lead but only by 7 points 48-41 without Joe Biden included.

There will be tears on each election night of the primaries, at least until Super Tuesday, anyway.