2016 Postmortem

MineralMan

(146,254 posts) Tue Oct 27, 2015, 01:47 PM Oct 2015

Massive HillaryQuake Hits Iowa.

Nationwide aftershocks expected this week.

The earthshaking results of two Iowa polls hit hard this morning, shaking up the campaign ground in Iowa and threatening the destruction of the Sanders home team. National polling result aftershocks have begun to come in, as well, with more aftershocks expected today and tomorrow.

The United States Electional Survey recommends that people living in a house of cards seek better shelter to avoid painful injuries to their emotional bases.

Updates on future tremors will be reported as they become available.

32 replies

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Highlight:

Massive HillaryQuake Hits Iowa. (Original Post) MineralMan Oct 2015 OP

You seismological rascal, you. JohnnyLib2 Oct 2015 #1

God, I wish I was young enough to leave this country. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #2

Well, you're just an island of intelligence MineralMan Oct 2015 #3

Is there an age limit to leave? JaneyVee Oct 2015 #4

Well, at some point, folks aren't that interested MineralMan Oct 2015 #6

Democratic primary voters are some of the smartest and most well-informed voters IMO. Cali_Democrat Oct 2015 #8

The polls didn't favor St. Bernard the pure. -nt. Amimnoch Oct 2015 #9

It's going to decades to turn things around, if ever. Broward Oct 2015 #16

Points! NurseJackie Oct 2015 #5

More than likely an outliar pinebox Oct 2015 #7

That's one helluva'n "outlier." Forty One Points is .... SIGNIFICANT. And that's w/o Biden. MADem Oct 2015 #10

You need to catch up pinebox--she has had a SECOND 'outliner'.... riversedge Oct 2015 #13

However pinebox Oct 2015 #29

A 10 on the political Richter scale! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #11

Andrea Mitchell's jaw dropped to the table this am with the Monmounth riversedge Oct 2015 #12

There's another poll result this afternoon? MineralMan Oct 2015 #14

see post # 13 riversedge Oct 2015 #17

Oh, OK. I was aware of that confirming poll. MineralMan Oct 2015 #19

Here is the pdf riversedge Oct 2015 #18

LBN has it also... riversedge Oct 2015 #21

Massive amount of $$$$$$$ hits Iowa bahrbearian Oct 2015 #15

Matching the massive amount of bovine excrement hitting MineralMan Oct 2015 #20

hahaha workinclasszero Oct 2015 #22

No, massive amount of campaign groundwork hit Iowa Skidmore Oct 2015 #24

/r/dadjokes/ Capt. Obvious Oct 2015 #23

Thanks, son... MineralMan Oct 2015 #25

Interesting, but remember... DFW Oct 2015 #26

On October 22 Clinton was polling 7 points ahead coyote Oct 2015 #27

She had lots of supporters at the Dem J-J dinner this weekend with thier blue glowlights. photo... riversedge Oct 2015 #28

KnRnLOL Hekate Oct 2015 #30

These polls are interesting Gothmog Oct 2015 #31

They make my day riversedge Oct 2015 #32

JohnnyLib2

(11,211 posts)

1. You seismological rascal, you.

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 01:55 PM

Oct 2015

Good one!

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)

2. God, I wish I was young enough to leave this country.

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:16 PM

Oct 2015

We're so damn stupid.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)

3. Well, you're just an island of intelligence

Reply to Fawke Em (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:27 PM

Oct 2015

in a wasteland of stupidity, I guess, so just stay put and celebrate that. I don't know of any place on this planet that doesn't have a similar distribution of the population by intelligence, really. Wherever you go, there you are.

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)

4. Is there an age limit to leave?

Reply to Fawke Em (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:28 PM

Oct 2015

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)

6. Well, at some point, folks aren't that interested

Reply to JaneyVee (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:32 PM

Oct 2015

in packing up, moving and starting over. I know, at 70, my interest in doing such a thing approaches zero, even if it were just across the city.

I moved from California to Minnesota at age 59 and swore I'd never do it again once the move was complete. Massive stress as a life event is what moving represents.

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)

8. Democratic primary voters are some of the smartest and most well-informed voters IMO.

Reply to Fawke Em (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:44 PM

Oct 2015

Much smarter than GOPers that's for sure.

Why so down?

Amimnoch

(4,558 posts)

9. The polls didn't favor St. Bernard the pure. -nt.

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Reply #8)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:47 PM

Oct 2015

Broward

(1,976 posts)

16. It's going to decades to turn things around, if ever.

Reply to Fawke Em (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:19 PM

Oct 2015

Things will likely have to get worse still before they get better.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

5. Points!

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:29 PM

Oct 2015

#HillaryQuake

pinebox

(5,761 posts)

7. More than likely an outliar

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:43 PM

Oct 2015

as CNN and MSNBC said earlier on the air.
When you look at the demographics polled, it makes sense.

Also, this.

Bernie Sanders Overwhelmingly Favored by Millennials in Iowa
http://www.latinpost.com/articles/89852/20151026/iowa-polls-2016-bernie-sanders-overwhelmingly-favored-millennials.htm
In the swing state of Iowa, the first to hold primary elections in the form of caucuses, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., appears to be the favorite among the largest U.S. age demographic to win the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.
Millennials, identified as Americans born between 1980 and mid-2000s, who represent one-third of the total U.S. population, overwhelmingly favored Sanders in polling data by CBS News and YouGov.
In the YouGov and CBS News survey, millennials, found in the 18-to-29-year-old age group, were most likely to vote for Sanders at 76 percent. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton significantly trailed the Vermont senator by 55 percentage points. Clinton received 21 percent of the millennials' vote. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley was the only other Democratic candidate to receive support at 3 percent.
The poll was conducted when Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee and Vice President Joe Biden were still considered likely contenders for the Democrat's nomination, but the three men received 0 percent.

When CBS News and YouGov polled millennials in a hypothetical Democratic presidential caucus questionnaire without Biden as an option, Sanders and Clinton received the same percentages.
Within the GOP field, Republican millennials showed that their caucus could end with a narrow result. Donald Trump received 26 percent, ahead of 22 percent for Ben Carson and 20 percent for Ted Cruz. All other Republican candidates received single-digit figures or 0 percent.
Although Marco Rubio received 6 percent support from Republican millennials, 62 percent said they would be "satisfied" if he wins the Republican nomination, while 23 percent would not be satisfied.
Among the four age groups identified in the poll, millennials were the most likely to vote in the 2016 Iowa presidential caucus with 84 percent stating they "definitely" or "probably will" vote. The 65-and-older age group showed the second-highest engagement rate with 77 percent, higher than the 30-to-44 and 45-to-64 age groups.
Regardless of political party affiliation, more millennials, at 62 percent, agreed they are "enthusiastic" about their first-choice candidate than the other age groups.

MADem

(135,425 posts)

10. That's one helluva'n "outlier." Forty One Points is .... SIGNIFICANT. And that's w/o Biden.

Reply to pinebox (Reply #7)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:04 PM

Oct 2015

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-clinton-leads-sanders-by-41-points-in-iowa/

Poll: Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 41 points in Iowa

A new poll out Tuesday shows Hillary Clinton 41 points ahead of Bernie Sanders in Iowa, the largest lead for Clinton in the state since August.

According to a new Monmouth University Poll, Clinton earns 65 percent of the vote from likely Democratic caucus-goers to Sanders' 24 percent. Martin O'Malley gets 5 percent and Larry Lessig, who is not often included in early state polls, gets 1 percent.

"We now have a two-person race, but one of those competitors has just pulled very far ahead," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, in the poll's release.

The poll conducted between October 22 and 24, is the first poll that captures Democratic caucus-goers' opinions after Clinton's appearance before the Select House Committee on Benghazi last week. The marathon day of testimony, which lasted 11 hours, was largely seen as a victory for Clinton over a committee divided on party lines and mired with controversy.

Her performance on Capitol Hill, along with a commanding presence on the debate stage the week before, had Clinton and her supporters on a high as she headed to Iowa over the weekend for the state party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner....

riversedge

(70,082 posts)

13. You need to catch up pinebox--she has had a SECOND 'outliner'....

Reply to pinebox (Reply #7)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:16 PM

Oct 2015

ALSO new Loras College poll finds Clinton leading Sanders, 65% to 24%, with O’Malley at 3% http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/27/clinton-holds-massive-lead-in-iowa/ … #Hillary16

pinebox

(5,761 posts)

29. However

Reply to riversedge (Reply #13)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:50 PM

Oct 2015

I did catch up and I read the GD-P thread in which both polls use the same source XD

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

11. A 10 on the political Richter scale!

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:11 PM

Oct 2015

A whole lotta shaking goin on this morning MineralMan

riversedge

(70,082 posts)

12. Andrea Mitchell's jaw dropped to the table this am with the Monmounth

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:14 PM

Oct 2015

poll. Now with this afternoon's poll, I am sure she is scrapping herself off the floor. Still laughing about her expression from this am.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)

14. There's another poll result this afternoon?

Reply to riversedge (Reply #12)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:17 PM

Oct 2015

Not one of these Iowa ones? If so, I haven't seen it yet.

riversedge

(70,082 posts)

17. see post # 13

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #14)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:19 PM

Oct 2015

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)

19. Oh, OK. I was aware of that confirming poll.

Reply to riversedge (Reply #17)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:21 PM

Oct 2015

I'm watching for the first of many national polls taken since the Benghazi hearing and Biden's announcement. Those will be very interesting. I expected to see a couple today, but so far, none have shown up.

riversedge

(70,082 posts)

18. Here is the pdf

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #14)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:20 PM

Oct 2015

http://loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/a2/a25b395d-257a-48e7-b082-68e8d10aa95c.pdf

riversedge

(70,082 posts)

21. LBN has it also...

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #14)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:22 PM

Oct 2015

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141244242

bahrbearian

(13,466 posts)

15. Massive amount of $$$$$$$ hits Iowa

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:19 PM

Oct 2015

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)

20. Matching the massive amount of bovine excrement hitting

Reply to bahrbearian (Reply #15)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:22 PM

Oct 2015

the interwebs, I think.

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

22. hahaha

Reply to MineralMan (Reply #20)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:26 PM

Oct 2015

+100

Skidmore

(37,364 posts)

24. No, massive amount of campaign groundwork hit Iowa

Reply to bahrbearian (Reply #15)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:28 PM

Oct 2015

long be fore Sanders came. Hillary has a good ground game here and doesn't rely on an internet brigade.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)

23. /r/dadjokes/

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:27 PM

Oct 2015

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)

25. Thanks, son...

Reply to Capt. Obvious (Reply #23)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 03:29 PM

Oct 2015

You always respond to my jokes, and I appreciate that. Really, I do.

DFW

(54,281 posts)

26. Interesting, but remember...

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:33 PM

Oct 2015

This is going to be anything but a typical primary campaign, and Bernie's supporters were just as jubilant when it looked like he was leading in Iowa.

Both camps could do well to remember that things could shift a few more times before the caucus. I'd be willing to bet the Sanders campaign remembers Howard Dean's attempt in 2003/2004, and is plenty determined to be more than just an "internet phenomenon." Neither candidate is a shoo-in (or, "shoe-in," as I have seen posted here--I promise I did not make that up!), and I don't find that a bad thing. Nothing like a little teeth-sharpening to prepare for the general. Don't get me wrong, I say the Democratic nominee wins as things look now, whoever it is. But the coattails will be a vital factor in the make-up of Congress for the first two years, and THAT will determine if the new president come in with any kind of wind in his/her sails.

coyote

(1,561 posts)

27. On October 22 Clinton was polling 7 points ahead

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:40 PM

Oct 2015

Today, 5 days later, she is polling 41 points...that is is a 34 point gain in 5 days. I love the smell of bullshit in the morning. And Carson is the republican front runner too.