2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"Romney cedes Ohio TV airwaves to Obama (at least for now)" by Michael Finnegan at the LA Times
Romney cedes Ohio TV airwaves to Obama (at least for now)By Michael Finnegan at the LA Times
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-obama-ohio-ads-20120906,0,4157574.story
"SNIP.....................................
The sudden cease-fire offered a surprising lull in what for months had been a guns-blazing advertising war waged in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire on one side, Romney and his allies; on the other, the president and his.
It had continued unabated during the Republican National Convention last week, with no letup from the Obama forces.
But Romneys temporary withdrawal has been striking here in northern Ohio, where what had looked to TV viewers for months like an evenly matched, if annoying, ad battle transformed into a lopsided all-Obama/all-the-time promotion campaign, with news coverage of the Democratic National Convention amplifying the presidents message.
The Romney vacuum was especially noteworthy given that early voting in Ohio starts in less than four weeks.
......................................SNIP"
Sedona
(3,769 posts)WTF?
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)Or Romney may see ads in Ohio a waste. A waste because the have the fix already in place.
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)Like McCain before him. I know it sounds ludicrous but it seems fair to include it in the list of possible scenarios in Ohio.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)or adopting a completely different path.
But they cannot win the EC without Ohio.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)There is absolutely no path to 270 if they concede OH in addition to WI, MI, and PA.
The whole thing is probably connected with the strange decision to not do any serious campaigning this week.
One interpretation is that the DNC is sucking up all the oxygen and any ad spend (or campaign events) in the next day or two might be wasted. They also might want to take a day or two to assess what has just hit them. This was not a bunch of drunks chasing hookers in Charlotte. This was a heavy, heavy, serious attack. Maybe our electorate is so divided that it won't actually move the numbers at all. But maybe their private polling is showing that the cumulative effect of:
- lies
- a lousy VP choice
- a nasty, mean-spirited RNC where Romney's name barely came up
- lies
- a RNC where they presented no specifics
- lies
- their intentions to kill Medicare and Social Security
are catching up to them. If they've seen a big shift in their polling, they may be calling a time out to try to see where they can go from here. But they most certainly cannot write off Ohio.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)And no other issue in that part of the country.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)They may feel their current batch of ads don't work in OH, MI, and WI, and they may be trying to figure out an effective way to counter that.
Romney has tried to argue that when he said "Let Detroit go bankrupt" what was a technical term. He was really saying "save Detroit by taking them through a managed bankruptcy." That actually could be an effective response, except for the fact that a managed bankruptcy requires somebody to step up with capital, and nobody stepped up. That was my biggest disappoint with the DNC, which on the whole was a great production. But why is nobody pushing the central issue about the GM bailout. That is actually quite easy to make:
I didn't want the government to have an ownership stake in GM. As president, I didn't want to be in the car business. There are so many other things that needed the president's attention. But the consequences of losing over a million jobs -- losing an entire industry would have been disastrous. If we could have facilitated a managed bankruptcy with private equity companies, we would have done that. But the banking system was so fouled up by that moment that no private equity companies would touch that with a 10-foot pole. Where was KKR? Where was Blackstone? Why didn't they come to the table with some money? And for all Governor Romney's Monday-morning quarterbacking, I don't recall Bain Capital offering to help out here. So we were left with no option. Either the government had to be the lender of last resort or else GM and Chrysler would disappear ...
There is still time for the Obama campaign to make that point, of course, but I was disappointed they didn't do it at the DNC when they had the best opportunity.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)They are playing this one to main street.
Not to minimize your point. And in fact, I have some friends on the fence who I will try it on -- since they are a private equity family. I think the personal tax consequences are too much for them to swallow, but they are social liberals.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)The Republican point is to call this "Government Motors". The only Dem response has been to say "it saved 1.1 million jobs"
That is not an adequate response -- or at least not one that fully takes credit for the issue. Romney argues that the government shouldn't be involved, that it would have sorted itself out through this thing he calls a "managed bankruptcy".
I believe it is really necessary to explain, the issue was capital -- money needed to carry on the business. Banks were not lending, and the private equity firms like Bain were running the other way. It really was a simple as "either the government steps in or else the whole industry would disappear (at least GM and Chrysler)."
And the advantage of taking that extra 30 seconds to explain capital is that it throws it back on Bain. "If Gov. Romney thinks it should have been a private solution, then where was Bain? Why didn't Bain step up to help out? He talks big now, but where was he when in counted?"
The other response that Dems seem to miss out on is some of that arithmetic Clinton talks about. The government came in and bought stock in the restructured GM. And we gave Chrysler a loan. That is how we saved those companies. The Chrysler loan was fully repaid as they merged with Fiat, so that is clearly a big win for everybody. And in the case of GM, we have already sold much of the stock. We still hold some stock. It is true that when we sell the remaining GM stock, the taxpayers will realize a loss of about $20 billion. #1, that is a tiny fraction of the losses we suffered in bailing out Wall Street. #2, saving over a million jobs is worth way more than $20 billion.
Arithmetic!!! Just think of what it would have cost the taxpayers if those million workers stopped paying taxes, started drawing unemployment, food stamps and other assistance. That would have been hundreds of billions of dollars. This is the best possible deal for the taxpayers
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Check that, I think he ceded the election. He can't win without Ohio.
applegrove
(118,595 posts)BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)With all these stories of him pulling the plug on this state or that state, this begins to look like a campaign in crisis. And when there is blood in the water, that's when the MSM starts to jump in to amplify that.
PuppyBismark
(594 posts)abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)Watching a bit of Greta.
Sounds a bit like they're about ready to give it up over there. They were talking about the Latino vote.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Short ads, positive ads remind people where and when to vote. Thank them for their vote and voting early. A running count of early votes received?
Sedona
(3,769 posts)reported on Stephanie Miller moments ago!
The PAC money is gone too?
Too good to be true?
mojo2012
(290 posts)No way do I think they've given up. I think something is being plotted. I wouldn't be surprised if they were watching for any holes during the DNC that they could capitalize on.
They haven't run out of money. I think they are going to hit hard with every dollar (a lot of it) they have and fill the airways EVERYWHERE with their false ads during the last two weeks before the election. Money is no object, what's another million or two each from their rich buddies and corporations. I think there's something going on and we all have to be ready to be on the attack.