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speedoo

(11,229 posts)
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 02:19 AM Sep 2012

New numbers from Nate Silver: 313 EV, 77.3% chance to win.

I believe that's a new forecast set of numbers, no explanation from Nate.. I believe both numbers are new highs. My guess is that more than anything else, the new, better numbers reflect continuing lousy bounce for the amateurish rethug convention. Too soon for any info re, the Democratic convention.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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New numbers from Nate Silver: 313 EV, 77.3% chance to win. (Original Post) speedoo Sep 2012 OP
Our President works hard for every point! n/t flamingdem Sep 2012 #1
That's for sure! cilla4progress Sep 2012 #2
True sakabatou Sep 2012 #3
I hate to throw cold water on this... regnaD kciN Sep 2012 #4
Perception of Economy modrepub Sep 2012 #5
That's all fine and good, but WeekendWarrior Sep 2012 #10
You're right to point that out. speedoo Sep 2012 #11
That is because the convention bounce showed us where Romney's ceiling of support is Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #17
holy smokes Ghost of Tom Joad Sep 2012 #6
The Trend is striking... /nt jimlup Sep 2012 #7
Obama trending down on Intrade, however central scrutinizer Sep 2012 #8
Pretty sure that Intrade reflects abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #9
thanks for pointing that out. MjolnirTime Sep 2012 #12
Frankly, anyone could have predicted the '08 outcome... Drunken Irishman Sep 2012 #14
I guess we'll have to check out the update tonight TroyD Sep 2012 #13
Update: 314.2 EV, 78.1% chance to win, 51.3%-47.5% Rowdyboy Sep 2012 #15
Look at how solid Ohio and Virginia are Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #16

regnaD kciN

(26,035 posts)
4. I hate to throw cold water on this...
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:06 AM
Sep 2012

...but, as I keep pointing out, that figure is based on the special temporary model Nate developed, which built in correctives for any convention bounces. Much of Obama's jump in the odds is based on the lack of a significant bounce for the Republicans in the week following their convention. However, if you look at his regular model without those corrections -- what he calls the "Now-Cast" -- not only are Obama's odds for victory quite a bit lower than the figure you cite, but they have been dropping for the past few days, from 71.3% a few days ago to 69% yesterday to 67.7% today. Granted, a two-to-one advantage in the odds is something I think every candidate would love to have, but we all should keep in mind that the 77.3% is predicated on a decent convention bounce for us in the next few days and, if that's not forthcoming, those odds will rapidly drop toward the mid-to-high 60s. Not to be doom-and-gloomy, but just don't decide the sky is falling if the gaudy numbers we've been quoting don't hold up for long.

modrepub

(3,467 posts)
5. Perception of Economy
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 06:32 AM
Sep 2012

The perception of the economy will shape the final weeks of the election. If things go well then Obama is almost assured of victory. If unemployment goes up, there are more announced large layoffs, the market tanks in October or the Europeans or Chinese zones implode (and drag us down) then it will be close. All this talk and such is just a lot of hot air.

WeekendWarrior

(1,437 posts)
10. That's all fine and good, but
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 12:44 PM
Sep 2012

I, frankly, don't give a damn what the numbers show. Obama will win this election in spite of anyone's cold water. In a landslide.

Feel free to revisit this comment on November 7.

speedoo

(11,229 posts)
11. You're right to point that out.
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 02:18 PM
Sep 2012

I usually do, myself, but no one seems to pay attention when I do, so I left it out this time.

But I do agree with Nate's methodology on this. Obama needs a good bump just to keep the forecast numbers where they are right now.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
17. That is because the convention bounce showed us where Romney's ceiling of support is
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 08:29 PM
Sep 2012

He was only able to get to about 46% in the polls, which means he aint going higher than that. That tells us a lot about how well he is going to perform come election day, which is piss poor. That is a major reason why Obama is surging now.

central scrutinizer

(11,616 posts)
8. Obama trending down on Intrade, however
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 12:03 PM
Sep 2012

and here is another site that is pretty accurate - he missed by 1 EV in 2008 (Omaha) although he did have both Indiana and Missouri wrong and those cancelled each other.

http://election.princeton.edu/

abumbyanyothername

(2,711 posts)
9. Pretty sure that Intrade reflects
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 12:18 PM
Sep 2012

Speculators playing a "sell the news" strategy on the dem convention.

And beyond that I would call any +/- 5% moves on Intrade noise. The market is quite thin and it is difficult to build up a meaningful position.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
14. Frankly, anyone could have predicted the '08 outcome...
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 06:15 PM
Sep 2012

Too many people get credit for predicting the '08 outcome like it was some uncertain thing. We knew Obama would win. We knew there was a good chance he was going to carry Ohio, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Yes, Indiana was a bit of a surprise, but on the whole, if you weren't close to the ultimate outcome, you probably were an idiot - because, frankly, it was obvious which way that direction was going to go.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
13. I guess we'll have to check out the update tonight
Fri Sep 7, 2012, 06:08 PM
Sep 2012

Tonight's update should factor in the poll bounces (eg. Gallup), but might also have to factor in the slow jobs growth from the report today.

Nate says that Bill Clinton has been a positive for Obama this week .

His most recent Tweet:

All three trackers today (Ipsos/Rasmussen/Gallup) show a bounce for Obama. Looks like Clinton moved the needle a bit.


https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
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