I think most people have already made up their minds and the choice is clear. Romney is obviously a clueless, soulless liar and I predict a landslide for Obama.

It's common wisdom that the economy controls elections. It was also common wisdom that a black man with limited experience in national politics could not possibly beat out seasoned veterans like Hillary Clinton and John McCain and win the presidency.

Common wisdom isn't always right.

And the undecided block (about 5-14% in the various polls) is big enough to swing the election. That's why the economic data is so important. It's also why the narrative is so important.

At this point, the candidates are known. Most people have made up their minds. Those who haven't (<5%, imo) are those who don't like either candidate and will likely vote third party or stay at home. IMO, the election will hinge on voter registration and GOTV.

As the saying goes, I think the lackluster economy is "baked into the cake" at this point. Barring an absolute meltdown, the economy is not going to really swing the polls one way or another at this point. I think the trenches are set on both sides, and it will all come down to the debates and, most critically, GOTV. Not to say that the data won't have an impact on some, I just don't see it having enough impact to swing the pendulum at this point.