2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEffect of Jobs Numbers on Presidential Race Is Uncertain
Fridays jobs report was a weak one with Augusts job growth more in line with the tepid growth of the spring than the stronger numbers in July or over the winter months.
Furthermore, job-growth numbers for May and June were revised downward slightly, and manufacturing jobs a measure that Democrats touted at various points during their convention this week in Charlotte, N.C. fell by 15,000.
Politically, however, it is less certain that the report is going to matter that much. The unemployment rate declined for superficial reasons, which makes for a gentler headline for President Obama.
Perhaps more important, the report did not change the basic story of an economy that is experiencing subpar growth but is in recovery rather than recession.
The jobs numbers are subject to a fair amount of statistical noise; on average, the monthly job-growth number misses the markets expectation by about 70,000 jobs. As a rough rule, the jobs numbers might have to be off about that much in one direction or another to tell a substantially different economic story, which in this case would have meant fewer than about 60,000 jobs being created or more than about 190,000.
Instead, the government reported that 96,000 jobs were added in August, weaker than consensus expectations that about 135,000 jobs would be created.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/effect-of-jobs-numbers-on-presidential-race-is-uncertain/ more
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)flamingdem
(39,304 posts)It seems like it's all about how the MSM choses to frame the report
coalition_unwilling
(14,180 posts)gave up on looking for work and dropped out of the labor market (thus not counted in unemployment stats). That is hardly a 'superficial reason' and bespeaks an economy in serious trouble.
I hope Obama pivots from the convention bump to start attacking his version of the 'Do-Nothing Congress' (a reprise of Harry S. Truman's 1948 whistle-stop campaign). The Republicans in 2010 campaigned on 'Jobs, jobs, jobs' and then DID NOT put forward a jobs bill. So Republicans should not get to attack Obama for the economy's poor performance.
fugop
(1,828 posts)I do wish they'd shame Congress for obstructing everything from day one. That's the one thing I wish we'd seen more of from all the speakers. There was some, but I wish that were a common theme coming out of the convention.
Then again, I sure love how positive and uplifting our convention was for the most part. So I'm torn about hindsight on it. But now? Yea. I hope they shred the GOPers in Congress.
The one omission from Obama's speech last night was that he should have reminded Americans that he has been trying to pass a JOBS BILL which Boehner and his friends have refused to pass!
People need to know the unemployment rate would be lower if the GOP had not deliberately tried to make Obama FAIL just like they said they wanted to.
There's also an article out (by TIME, I think) that discusses how Boehner and his friends got together before Obama was even sworn in in January 2009 and plotted to obstruct everything he did!
speedoo
(11,229 posts)Or are those new retirees captured elsewhere?
budkin
(6,691 posts)It seemed to have completely reversed.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Those were ADP reports which are not always accurate. That's why caution had to be used.
This report is a bit of a downer, and it will allow Romney & the RNC to complain at Obama for a few days, but luckily it shows a decrease in the unemployment rate (for whatever reasons) so it's not as bad as it could be.
And Obama should point out that 96,000 jobs for August 2012 is better than the 85,000 jobs for August 2011.