Is that Likely Voters or Registered Voters?

I know CNN made a controversial distinction in their poll 2 weeks ago when they showed Obama & Romney tied.

thevoiceofreason

(3,440 posts)

7. Likely Voters

Reply to TroyD (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:05 PM

Sep 2012

stopbush

(24,396 posts)

39. Oops! There goes the, "no worries, Obama's still under 50%" I heard from the RWNM this am on MSNBC.

Reply to TroyD (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:41 PM

Sep 2012

That's the problem when you set out markers - your theory goes to shit once the marker has been reached.

lamp_shade

(14,828 posts)

4. Yikes!!!

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:03 PM

Sep 2012

cormac69

(8 posts)

5. Obama lead

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:05 PM

Sep 2012

no lead is safe!

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)

32. Obama's EC lead is growing ... should break 300 EC votes.

Reply to cormac69 (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:37 PM

Sep 2012

frazzled

(18,402 posts)

6. Hot diggety dog

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:05 PM

Sep 2012

But let's not peak too soon. I prefer we retain a bit of underdog status to make people realize they have to work and give and get to the polls to really make this work in the end.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

8. Nate Silver says:

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:05 PM

Sep 2012

Most of Obama's gains in the CNN poll are because their likely voter gap narrowed a lot. Registered voter numbers didn't shift much.

I think this means that Romney has lost some of his support with Likely Voters since the last poll?

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

11. Yes. Obama always had a lead in RV - not LV.

Reply to TroyD (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:07 PM

Sep 2012

Marsala

(2,090 posts)

14. No, it means that Democratic registered voters have become more likely

Reply to TroyD (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:09 PM

Sep 2012

Obama's big lead in registered voters (and also the unlikely voters out there) gives him much more room to grow. His bump may be due mainly to the slumbering Democratic base finally waking up.

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

16. It's probably a mix of both.

Reply to Marsala (Reply #14)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:11 PM

Sep 2012

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

9. Link to the Poll article on CNN:

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:06 PM

Sep 2012

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/10/cnn-poll-obama-up-six-points-over-romney/

(CNN) – A new survey indicates President Barack Obama moved up four points following the Democratic National Convention last week, and now has a six point advantage over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 52% of registered voters nationwide back the president, compared to 46% for Romney. Just before the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama was tied with Romney 48%-48%.

"The Democratic convention was fairly well received, particularly in comparison to the GOP meeting the previous week in Tampa," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.

Marsala

(2,090 posts)

10. !

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:06 PM

Sep 2012

Better than I expected, though certainly in line with the tracking polls.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

12. President Obama likability is at 57% in this poll.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:08 PM

Sep 2012

Romney 48%. At least that was the #'s I saw on CNN. Was 51 to 53% after the Repub convention. That is a big shift.

Avalux

(35,015 posts)

22. I can't believe Romney's is even 48%. Geez. n/t

Reply to Jennicut (Reply #12)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:45 PM

Sep 2012

renate

(13,776 posts)

38. that's what I thought, too

Reply to Avalux (Reply #22)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:22 PM

Sep 2012

I'm not trying to be snotty, but I really do wonder--I can see being neutral about him if someone were a Republican, but what on earth is there to LIKE?

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)

13. Bring us some long coattails...

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:08 PM

Sep 2012

mnhtnbb

(31,382 posts)

17. +++++

Reply to tk2kewl (Reply #13)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:17 PM

Sep 2012

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,406 posts)

15. "Great Kid!

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:10 PM

Sep 2012

Don't get cocky!"

-Han Solo

The polling looks almost in line with the 2008 final election results. GOTV!!! Let's make it happen........again!

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)

18. Good but Registered Voters. GOtV. Mind suppression, trickery with advance ballots, counting, etc. nt

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:24 PM

Sep 2012

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

20. it's among likely voters.

Reply to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #18)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:29 PM

Sep 2012

CNN switched their polling model right before the conventions. They do both LV and RV and this is the LV #.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)

21. Read the second paragraph of the quoted excerpt. It says "registered voters".

Reply to Jennicut (Reply #20)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:44 PM

Sep 2012

(on edit: 1st -> 2nd)

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

25. No, it's Likely Voters...Obama actually leads by 8 among Registered Voters.

Reply to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #21)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:53 PM

Sep 2012

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,994 posts)

27. The excerpt as posted by TroyD in post #9 and as posted in another thread is clear:

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Reply #25)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:05 PM

Sep 2012

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/10/cnn-poll-obama-up-six-points-over-romney/

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 52% of [font color = "red"]registered voters[/font] nationwide back the president, compared to 46% for Romney. Just before the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama was tied with Romney 48%-48%.

Marsala

(2,090 posts)

31. The excerpt is wrong. The actual poll is of likely voters.

Reply to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #27)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:32 PM

Sep 2012

The blog post has a typo, apparently.

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

34. And so was the link I posted...

Reply to Bernardo de La Paz (Reply #27)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:05 PM

Sep 2012

Did you even bother to read it or what? IF you did, you'll see the polling numbers ... and Obama leads by 6 among LV and 8 among RV. I don't care what that excerpt says ... it's wrong.

johnnyrocket

(1,773 posts)

19. Woo Hoo! Finally a MAJORITY of fellow countrymen are on the right side of history. We are slow....

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:26 PM

Sep 2012

....but I think we get it right a lot of the time.

speedoo

(11,229 posts)

23. Do we dare hope for a landslide?

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:50 PM

Sep 2012

Probably not yet, but it would certainly be sweet.

Burying the two biggest liars ever put together on a national ticket would be so well deserved.

fugop

(1,828 posts)

24. CNN reports tie...

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:53 PM

Sep 2012

Kidding. I don't know how they're reporting it, but I'm sure it's good news for John McCain!

hamsterjill

(15,220 posts)

26. Good News, But Hard Work Still Needed

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:02 PM

Sep 2012

Take nothing for granted.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

28. Howard Fineman's thoughts:

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:13 PM

Sep 2012

New #Gallup, #CNN polls show Obama gaining for now. Optimistic, fun, unity of Dem convention v Christie, gloomy anger of GOP is one reason.

https://twitter.com/howardfineman

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)

29. Don't get complacent, severely!

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:16 PM

Sep 2012

Vote, Vote, Vote and encourage others to vote as well. With all of the voter suppression laws and purging, and now we have to deal with vigilantes harassing voters at voter stations, this election is about DEMOCRACY, besides other important things.

WinkyDink

(51,311 posts)

30. HTH does ANYone support Romney??

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:18 PM

Sep 2012

Blue Idaho

(5,048 posts)

33. Fired Up...

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:46 PM

Sep 2012

tavernier

(12,377 posts)

35. Hoo-Ray!!

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:05 PM

Sep 2012

With this healthy a lead, one can't help but wonder how they will steal the election. *yes, I fully believe the fix will be in*

spiderpig

(10,419 posts)

36. Well, finally!!!

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:09 PM

Sep 2012

Although I enjoy seeing daily what new depths of stupidity Mittens will plunge to (mixed with the fear that there are enough morons and thieves to steal the next election)

Zorra

(27,670 posts)

37. woooohoooo!!! rec

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:20 PM

Sep 2012

thesquanderer

(11,986 posts)

40. Mandate in the making

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:41 PM

Sep 2012

National polls don't tell you anything about who will win... all that matters for that is the polls in a handful of swing states (and we all know someone can lose the popular vote nationally and still win the election). BUT, winning the election WITH a substantial popular majority would better allow him to claim the "mandate" that W pretended he had in 2004.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

41. Looks like CNN has corrected the error

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2012, 06:54 PM

Sep 2012

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll (PDF) released Monday, 52% of likely voters nationwide back the president, compared to 46% for Romney. Just before the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama was tied with Romney 48%-48%.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/10/cnn-poll-obama-up-six-points-over-romney/