Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forumSo how do tonight's results, mathematically, affect the Democratic nomination contest?
Last edited Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:04 AM - Edit history (1)
I thought I would write down some math I figured out to try to quantify the changes that take place in these primaries. As a word of caution, if math is "not your thing", you may want to skip this post, because it is basically all math!
(Note on edit: Michigan's process is more complicated than I thought, resulting in Bernie Sanders doing 6 delegates better, and Hillary Clinton 6 delegates worse, than I assumed. I will add another post down-thread with the new numbers, but things don't change too much.)
Although you would not know it by listening to the mainstream media, neither superdelegates, nor popular votes, nor number of states won have any direct effect on the nomination process. The superdelegates could weigh in either way, technically, but in the past (namely in 2008) they switched sides at the end to back the candidate with the most pledged delegates (Obama). Popular vote is a new one on me, and number of states are fun to count, but as far as I know neither has any influence on who gets the nomination.
So what will be the change in the pledged delegate counts after tonight, and how will the contest look after that change? Let me do my best here to give some basic mathematics:
According to the Green Papers site (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MS-D, http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MI-D), both Mississippi and Michigan award their pledged delegates on a proportional basis, which I take to mean that if you get 52% of the vote in the state, say, than you get 52% of that states delegates.
Now Mississippi (MS) has 36 pledged delegates and Michigan (MI) has 130, according to RCP.
The Times currently has HC winning 83% of the vote in MS, which would give HC about .83 X 36 = about 30 delegates and BS .17 X 36 = about 6.
There will be a lot of excitement about who "wins" Michigan tonight, but it's hard to imagine the result being far from 50% to 50%, regardless of who gets crowned the great and glorious "winner". So we can assume that HC will get about 65 delegates in MI and BS will also get about 65 delegates.
So we can foresee HC getting 30 + 65 = 95 for the night and BS getting 6 + 65 = 71 for the night. That is, HC will probably increase her lead by about 24 delegates.
Now, how much difference will that make?
By the RCP site, HC started the night with 658 pledged delegates and BS started with 471. (Other sites will give slightly different numbers, but they all seem to be fairly close; I guess the reporting process by the various states is a bit sporadic. I will use these for simplicity.) So it seems they will end the night with HC having 658 + 95 = 753 and BS having 471 + 71 = 542. To see how this affects the race, one approach is to look at what percent of the remaining delegates each candidate needs to get. Since there are 4051 pledged delegates altogether, each candidate needs to get 2026 to win. And since the number of remaining delegates, after tonignt, will be 4051 - (753 + 542) = 2756,
we can calculate that, after tonight:
HC will need to win 2026 - 753 = 1273 of the remaining delegates, or 1273/2756 = 46.2% of the remaining delegates
and
BS will need to win 2026 - 542 = 1484 of the remaining delegates, or 1484/2756 = 53.8% of the remaining delegates.
In short, harder for Bernie, but not immensely harder. Specifically, I calculated in an earlier post, before Bernie won Maine, that he would need 53.3% of the remaining delegates. After Maine it was 53.2% and now it's 53.8%. Slightly harder, but not a lot harder. Specifically, a change from 53.2% to 53.8%. Similarly, things have gotten slightly easier for Hillary, from needing 46.8% to 46.2%.
Okay, I just wanted to season the hype with a a few actual numbers. I hope some here find this useful, and I apologize to those who have found it tedious!
tazkcmo
(7,287 posts)Thanks for taking the time to put this together. To the convention.
BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)I think that Michigan could be the tipping point we have been looking for.
1. People start thinking Bernie can win and look at him more closely. When people give Bernie a chance and listen to him, his issues resonate and they like him. Momentum can drive turnout among young people and independents who go heavily for Bernie.
2. Hillary's last minute attempted smear on Bernie in the debate remind people why they don't like or trust the Clintons. Her numbers never go up, only down. Some people who were inclined to hold their nose and vote for her abandon her.
If things start moving toward Bernie and with the deep south largely behind, I believe winning 54-46 or better the rest of the way is within the realm of possibility.
Many of us said that without winning or coming close in Michigan, the odds of Bernie winning were really meager. Now it is on.
Mbrow
(1,090 posts)DLnyc
(2,479 posts)When people lose hope, they don't bother to vote, let alone work on things like getting out the vote.
Winning a state is a big boost psychologically, particularly because the media makes such a big deal about it. But it doesn't really change the delegate math significantly, of course!
I think this is a huge victory for Bernie, a hard-fought and well-deserved result!
BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)And the timing couldn't be better to have another debate coming tomorrow night. Should be more people tuning in and giving Bernie a closer look.
Autumn Colors
(2,379 posts)There was a thread on here about that primary that just concluded and that Bernie had won those by a large margin. Total delegates is 13 or 14, not sure how they are divided up, but Bernie would gain a few there.
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)I haven't seen anything mentioned.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
RichVRichV
(885 posts)If the pledged delegate count goes one way and the popular vote another then the popular vote could feasibly be used as cover for how the super delegates act. If one candidate wins both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote it's going to be very hard sell for the super delegates to override that.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)As spelled out at your link:
In addition, 45 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
Sanders won in a larger geographic area, which means he'll get more delegates from the congressional-district-based award.
Not a massive shift, but it does change the math slightly. Assuming the green papers has kept their tally up-to-date, it means Sanders gets +12 delegates from MI instead of +0 (71/59 instead of 65/65)
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)I did not look close enough. Other states have seemed to be just proportional, and that link says proportional at the top, but I should have looked more closely. Not that I would have been able to decipher it anyway!
I will edit my post.
Thanks!
sweetloukillbot
(10,814 posts)The absolute total needed to win the nomination is 2382 or 83. That's counting superdelegates because they are part of the final total. If neither reaches the magic number then I'd expect the supers will go to the leader, but whoever hits 2382 (or 83) wins outright without the supers. I don't think Hillary withdrew until Obama hit the absolute majority in 2008.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)But there is no doubt in my mind that Sanders really needs to outright win IL, FL and do well in Missouri to make this a closer race.
Next month there are 8 primaries and HC is going to win two big ones, PA and NY. You know she claims at least half the states in the country as her "home state" so I'm sure she'll take advantage of that.
swilton
(5,069 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Down. He made up 21? 22? Points since yesterday?
Their polls were WRONG or deliberately skewed to push their "Hillary's inevitable" narrative and Bernie just shoved those polls down their throats.
He's going into Ohio, Florida and Illinois with this gigantic win and a ton of momentum! He's going to WIN Ohio and Illinois and then Ms. inevitable will be getting calls to drop out! She can't win in BLUE STATES (except Massachusetts, where they cheated), so her days are numbered!
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)So here are the same calculations, with this fact corrected. My apologies for the false assumption! (But things don't change greatly.)
For Mississippi (MS), we still get HC about .83 X 36 = about 30 delegates and BS .17 X 36 = about 6.
Turns out in Michigan (MI), HC gets 59 and BS gets 71, due to a complicated formula in Michigan.
So now we have HC getting 30 + 59 = 89 for the night and BS getting 6 + 71 = 77 for the night. That is, HC will probably increase her lead by about 12 delegates.
So we end up with HC having 658 + 89 = 747 and BS having 471 + 77 = 548. Again, there are 4051 pledged delegates altogether, each candidate needs to get 2026 to win and the remaining delegates, after tonight, will be 4051 - (747 + 548) = 2756 (same as in the OP).
So this time, we calculate that, after tonight:
HC will need to win 2026 - 747 = 1279 of the remaining delegates, or 1279/2756 = 46.4% of the remaining delegates
and
BS will need to win 2026 - 548 = 1478 of the remaining delegates, or 1478/2756 = 53.6% of the remaining delegates.
So Hillary now needs 46.4% of the remaining delegates (instead of 46.2% as in the OP) and Bernie now needs 53.6% (instead of 53.8% as in the OP).
Altogether, this post is 0.2% worse for Hillary (and 0.2% better for Bernie) than the OP had it. Sorry for my faulty assumption about Michigan's delegate process, and thank you to jeff47 for pointing out the mistake!