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Donkees

(31,086 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:17 AM Mar 2016

"Bernie Sanders Wins Michigan Primary in Historic Upset"

POLITICS

Nathan Wellman | March 9, 2016

Despite Hillary’s supporters in the media continuing to trumpet that Bernie Sanders is unelectable, Bernie has just won the Michigan primary, his most important prize yet.

The turnout was incredibly high, with multiple primary precincts running out of ballots, according to WZZM. This victory has proven Bernie’s prediction to the Associated Press true that “if there is a large turnout, we are going to win here in Michigan.” With 90 percent of precincts reporting, the New York Times is projecting Sanders to win Michigan by a 50-48 margin.

“I just want to thank the people of Michigan who repudiated the polls, who repudiated the pundits,” Sanders said in an impromptu 11 PM news conference. “The people’s revolution, the political revolution we’re talking about is strong in every part of the country.”

Additionally, CNN exit polls show more black voters trust Sanders to handle race relations than they trust Hillary Clinton. This means Sanders may be reversing his losing trend among black voters as the primary goes on.

Sanders’ victory is a huge political upset, given most pollsters having him down considerably to Hillary Clinton in the weeks and days leading up to the Michigan primary. RealClearPolitics polling averages had Clinton projected to win by anywhere from a 13-point margin to a 27-point margin. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com projected Clinton as the winner with 99 percent probability:


http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-wins-michigan/
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"Bernie Sanders Wins Michigan Primary in Historic Upset" (Original Post) Donkees Mar 2016 OP
Ya see!! Duckfan Mar 2016 #1
YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #8
Nice headline. nt thereismore Mar 2016 #2
Huh? bernbabe Mar 2016 #3
I was trying to figure that one out also. pugetres Mar 2016 #4
No, it's proportional. Compared to the other states, Rebkeh Mar 2016 #11
I know bernbabe Mar 2016 #16
Ah, okay. I misunderstood. Rebkeh Mar 2016 #18
A third is more than he got in the south nt Rebkeh Mar 2016 #13
I think Bernie received more than half of the young black voters. Hillary's Flint debate... Donkees Mar 2016 #14
He did better among AA voters than he's done before. Peace Patriot Mar 2016 #17
for the Southern exit polls Clinton wins among those who just want someone who can win MisterP Mar 2016 #23
They cannot poll with accuracy anymore and Michigan proves it. in_cog_ni_to Mar 2016 #5
I am a fan of your posts Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #9
Thank you, Jenny_92808 in_cog_ni_to Mar 2016 #20
'Unless they were deliberately skewing the polls to fit their narrative' dana_b Mar 2016 #21
... in_cog_ni_to Mar 2016 #22
They obviously do not control all the Michigan voting machines. mhatrw Mar 2016 #6
Ruh Rooooh!!! the tide has turned yourpaljoey Mar 2016 #7
We are heading toward the Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #15
What's Nate Silver gonna say? Nyan Mar 2016 #10
My gawd... SoapBox Mar 2016 #12
Well, I hate to say it, but . . . Major Hogwash Mar 2016 #19
Heard this on NPR 2 hrs ago: "Sanders' did better than expected..." Eleanors38 Mar 2016 #24

bernbabe

(370 posts)
3. Huh?
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:24 AM
Mar 2016
Additionally, CNN exit polls show more black voters trust Sanders to handle race relations than they trust Hillary Clinton.

But overall he got only about a third of black voters in MI, right? That doesn't make sense.

Rebkeh

(2,450 posts)
11. No, it's proportional. Compared to the other states,
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:46 AM
Mar 2016

more black votes in MI went to Bernie than they did in the south.

Put it this way, because I don't have exact numbers: in previous states he got a low percentage of black votes. In MI, that percentage was higher. Blacks in MS are not like Blacks in Detroit, or Chicago, or LA, etc.

This is why it's absurd to call it the "black vote" - we are not a monolithic bloc.

Also, the age difference is a more reliable predictor than race. Younger blacks prefer Bernie.

bernbabe

(370 posts)
16. I know
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:55 AM
Mar 2016

black people and people in general are not the same everywhere.

But how I read that statement is, in Michigan more blacks thought Bernie would be better at race relations, yet he got roughly 1/3 the black vote (?). And I know that is better but that's not the question.

Donkees

(31,086 posts)
14. I think Bernie received more than half of the young black voters. Hillary's Flint debate...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:49 AM
Mar 2016

on criminal justice might be the reason.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was twice asked about her record on U.S. criminal justice reform legislation in the 1990s, during Sunday's Democratic presidential debate hosted by CNN in Flint, Michigan. Co-moderator Don Lemon asked whether African-Americans should trust Clinton on those issues, given her support for the 1994 crime bill that contributed to the disproportionate mass incarceration of black males.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
17. He did better among AA voters than he's done before.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:10 AM
Mar 2016

(I don't have the stat handy, but he improved with AA voters in MI.)

And the question is nuanced. Read it again:

Additionally, CNN exit polls show more black voters trust Sanders to handle race relations than they trust Hillary Clinton. This means Sanders may be reversing his losing trend among black voters as the primary goes on.


Not, do you support Sanders? Not, do you think he will win? Not, does he have rich cronies to drop $500,000 on your hurting community? But "do you trust him more to handle race relations?" (--don't know if that is exact wording of poll, but it's likely close).

My guess about this: AA voters in MI were really paying attention to things like the civil rights photo swift-boating of Sanders by the Clinton campaign, and the TRUTH about Sanders' civil rights record (it's quite real; there are many photos and even a video now that have come out); he put himself in jeopardy when young to stop segregation in Chicago). The lie has played out and the truth is winning on that one.

Also, I suspect that AA voters are responding to his honesty and integrity, and to HIS background--grandparents lost to the Holocaust, poor immigrant family, grew up in a ghetto in Brooklyn. They're learning more about him, just as we all are. And while they may still feel that their best interests are tied to their political and community leaders who are tied to the Clinton machine, at least some AA voters are beginning to LIKE him--to feel that he is a sympathetic person (as opposed to the Clinton glitz and her put-off-ish personality).

So all that could add up to peoples' answer to this particular question. They didn't take it as a political question, but rather as a personal question about trust.

MisterP

(23,730 posts)
23. for the Southern exit polls Clinton wins among those who just want someone who can win
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:58 PM
Mar 2016

so Black Michiganders who want someone who can win were in the majority, but AA race-relations voters, while a majority, are now breaking Sanders

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
5. They cannot poll with accuracy anymore and Michigan proves it.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:31 AM
Mar 2016

They weren't even close! Unless they were deliberately skewing the polls to fit their narrative and to sway votes.

This was a YUUUUGE UPSET!

I see 2008 repeat.

PEACEi
LOVE
BERNIE

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
21. 'Unless they were deliberately skewing the polls to fit their narrative'
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:43 AM
Mar 2016

hmm... I think you're onto something there.

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
22. ...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:50 AM
Mar 2016

Never underestimate how evil TPTB are. They will do anything and everything to stop Bernie. Now we can completely dismiss their bogus polls.

The only correct poll I saw was Tyler Pedigo.

https://tylerpedigo.com/2016/03/08/michigan-mississippi-democratic-primary-projections/

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
6. They obviously do not control all the Michigan voting machines.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:35 AM
Mar 2016

Thank God that we still have some democracy left in the USA!

Nyan

(1,192 posts)
10. What's Nate Silver gonna say?
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:44 AM
Mar 2016

That the polls were wrong? Is that it?
But I thought it was his job to figure out loopholes and blind spots in them?

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
19. Well, I hate to say it, but . . .
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 06:03 AM
Mar 2016

. . . it looks like Bernie somehow overcame Hillary's 78 point lead in Michigan, or something like that.



The last poll I saw on Saturday said Bernie was up by 3 points.
But, this is a lot like a basketball game, I thought maybe Hillary would come back in the last few hours to win.
There was a chance she could win, but evidently she didn't have enough time to tell more lies about Bernie's record before this primary took place.

I don't know how many kitchen sinks she has on hand now, but I suppose her SuperPAC will supply her with more from Home Depot, so it may get even nastier yet.
I can't imagine how that could ever happen, but I never underestimate the opponent.

This win in Michigan will now make it easier for the doubters out there in Ohio and Illinois to vote for Bernie next week.
You know, the ones that said he wasn't viable, or some such nonsense.

I feel pretty good about tonight's win.







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