Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Bubzer

(4,211 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:32 AM Mar 2016

Bernie won last night, and it's a huge upset... but what does it mean?

It means that the math that every poll that was forecasting Hillary to win is now suspect. How so?

Well, 538 projected at least an 18 point win for Hillary with an expected 99% assuredness. If you know nothing about 538, you should know they pick the best of the polls out there and combine their data to get their own results... you can think of it as a meta-poll.

This means that the best pollsters out there were off in their educated-guesses by at about 20% average. That's an enormous margin to be wrong by in the world of pollsters. So, all future polling forecasting any kind of win for Hillary has an immediate shadow of doubt hovering over it.

It's also worth noting that Hillary has not done well in the majority of democratic voting states. Sure, she's locked up many of the red-states... but she's largely being rebuffed in the blue states... Michigan helped to prove that.

What does it mean for future state races? Well, Bernie still has a lot of delegates he must win, but it means there's certainly more hope of that happening than there was before!

Go Bernie!!!

5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Bernie won last night, and it's a huge upset... but what does it mean? (Original Post) Bubzer Mar 2016 OP
It means a single day is over, the fight goes on. Half-Century Man Mar 2016 #1
That there's a lot more work ahead of us.... daleanime Mar 2016 #2
Indeed. But now, more than ever, there's hope! Bubzer Mar 2016 #3
I'd consider open primaries more suspect, but closed ones are still closer to the current polling. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Mar 2016 #4
A few land-slipe victories would go a long way. Bubzer Mar 2016 #5

Half-Century Man

(5,279 posts)
1. It means a single day is over, the fight goes on.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:34 AM
Mar 2016

Work harder for the next one, it will be harder to win.
And then do it again....

Erich Bloodaxe BSN

(14,733 posts)
4. I'd consider open primaries more suspect, but closed ones are still closer to the current polling.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:52 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie's got to step up the ground game, because he needs an AVERAGE win of like 54% going forward, and there are still southern states out there that are going to suck. Which means he's going to need to stack up at least a few 60-65% wins in states with a LOT of delegates. I don't want to have to pin my hopes on a massive win in the very last state.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Bernie Sanders»Bernie won last night, an...