Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forum*AHEM* Nate Silver! "Bernie Sanders is Set To Win All of The Upcoming 8 States, Expert Says"
March 21, 2016
Using his new method of predicting, Silver would have been able to predict the Michigan caucus far more accurately, as he explains, Our demographic retrodiction for Michigan still has Clinton winning, but only barely by 3 percentage points, compared with the actual 2-point win for Sanders. Especially under the Democrats proportional allocation method, thats a pretty minor difference. The difference is even more minor when you incorporate the fact that most polling companies, in the run-up to Michigan had Sanders losing to Clinton by almost 20%.
It is critical to the Sanders campaign that they finally begin to enter a period of sustained victories, if they are to clinch the nomination. Now, however, following a change in Silvers prediction system, it seems as though Sanders is on track to achieve just that. While Clinton tends to do better in more conservative regions, such as the Deep South, there arent many of such places left to vote. The next 8 states to engage in the Democratic nominating process are Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Silver feels Sanders has a shot at winning all of them.
In Idaho, Nate Silver says that Bernie Sanders has a 75% chance of winning. Similarly, in Utah he has an even greater chance of winning at 82%, in Alaska Sanders is almost certain to win with a 91% chance. Hawaii and Washington are the next two states after that, and according to Silvers mathematical analysis Bernie has a 81% and 85% chances of winning. Finally, in Wisconsin, Bernie has a 61% chance of winning and in Wyoming he has an 81% chance of winning.
The only state that I have omitted so far is Arizona, which is on the same date as the Idaho and Utah primaries. In Arizona, according to Nate Silvers prediction Bernie Sanders has a 40% chance of winning. These predictions however, were made a couple of weeks ago, before Sanders held multiple rallies in the state, before he invested over 1.5 million dollars in ads and before polls emerged showing Sanders rapidly closing the gap. The incorporation of all these influences means that Sanders has a far better chance of winning Arizona now than he did when Silvers predictions were made.
Therefore with the exception of perhaps Arizona Bernie Sanders looks set to enter a period of successive wins in very important states. Last week, the Sanders campaign claimed that Clintons best days are now behind us and according to polling experts such as Nate Silver it seems as though they were right. Sanders fans will hope that winning all of the upcoming 8 states would provide Bernie with sufficient momentum to enable him to win bigger states in the future such as California and New York<snip>
http://www.politicalpeopleblog.com/bernie-sanders-set-to-win-all-of-the-upcoming-8-states/
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)It's already been decided.....
Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)the largest population centers (and delegates) have yet to be decided. The deep south and Ohio do not get to decide who our candidate will be in November. And don't even try that 2.5 million more votes crap... AND--if I hear another talking head talk about HRC's 'sweep' last Tuesday I will put up the map on every freaking post. Less than ...<..... 1.8% is a TIE in terms of delegates awarded.
NV Whino
(20,886 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)wobble
(16 posts)I am sure of it. Must be representing the RW conspiracy against Hillary!
Like I would read any rag Bob Iger and Disney put out.
Oh wait, Bob Iger and the Disney PAC are donors to Hillary?
Sorry for the attempt at satire... the memes are getting difficult to ignore.
Seriously though, this is pretty good news!
BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)<Using his new method of predicting, Silver would have been able to predict the Michigan caucus far more accurately>
Gotta love those "backtested" models.
I give Nate Silver a 99% probability of being full of shit.