Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forumSanders needs 58% of remaining delegtes to win. It is doable.
http://DemRace.com/?share=F2dyLJi2thereismore
(13,326 posts)(and a prostate to match).
My hero.
Yuugal
(2,281 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)Donkees
(31,079 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)otherwise we won't know how many votes they'll flip.
BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)Bernie wins big with Independents but not with self described Democrats. Is Bernie going to win 58-42 in closed primaries in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Connecticut, all with large numbers of delegates? The last poll I saw from New York had Bernie down about 35 points.
Thank you for posting the link with the delegates by state and whether they are open, closed or semi-closed. It saved me the trouble of putting it into a spreadsheet. On "The Race to 2026 Delegates", you can pull the bar to the left or right to change the 58-42 Bernie that is the default for the rest of the primaries. I put New York at about 58-42 Hillary because she was a senator there for 6 years and because she is in the pocket of Wall Street. I suspect that's too optimistic if anything. I put Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Connecticut (all closed primaries) at about 53-47 Hillary. I put Maryland (closed primary), Kentucky (closed primary, sandwiched between the deep South and Ohio where Hillary has won) and West Virginia (closed primary, borders Virginia and Ohio where Hillary won by comfortable margins) both at 50-50, probably optimistic. I put the District of Columbia (closed primary) at 60-40 Hillary because it is 50% African American (not sure what percentage of likely voters) and Hillary has won everywhere among African American voters.
To try to make up some of that ground, I bumped Bernie up to 65-35 in Washington's open primary and California to 60-40 Bernie with a semi-open primary. Both of those are probably too optimistic.
By changing the outcomes as noted above and leaving the other remaining primaries at 58-42 Bernie, Bernie would only gain 139 delegates in the remaining primaries and would still be 163 delegates behind Hillary, ignoring the superdelegates. And I think the projections I have made are too optimistic.
If anybody can go in and do some state by state adjustments and come up with a better (but at least somewhat realistic) outcome for Bernie, I'd love to see it.
royable
(1,263 posts)On the morning after the day in whichthe big news was that Sanders gained more delegates in three state races than Clinton did (in spite of massive voter disenfranchisement in Arizona), the Arizona Daily Star has the technically true headline "In AZ, Trump, Clinton add to delegate count."
http://tucson.com/news/state-and-regional/trump-clinton-wins-arizona-presidential-primaries/article_53ce5660-111b-531d-8748-faee380d4aa8.html
(FYI, the online headline doesn't match the print headline, which often happens with this newspaper.)
On a side note, does anyone know how many posts I need to accumulate before I can start a new thread? I would have done so with this news item, but see no "start new thread" link or button anywhere, and haven't found any answer to the question by searching the site. (I found several other people who've asked in the forums, but no answer was provided.)
(No need to welcome me to DU. I've been here many years, but don't post often.)
royable
(1,263 posts)So I guess that's how I start a new thread!
(Edited to add: But don't let this hijack the current thread!)