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SandersDem

(592 posts)
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 12:21 AM Oct 2015

This will not make many of you happy.

It is becoming increasingly likely that HRC may have won the debate. I know you won't like this, and I expect many of you will flame my ass. I am tossing this out at all of you like a frickin bomb because it means something.

First, here is an indicator, and instead of attacking polls, we can see that HRC has made gains in NH in a new CNN poll. (You can cry rigged now if you want, but bear with me). We will see more polling coming out over this weekend and into early next week and I think they will show more HRC gains and here is why.

Secondly, the media has been declaring it so. Repeatedly. They have become a spin cycle for the HRC campaign.

Third, the HRC campaign itself has been doing a GREAT job spinning and playing up how well HRC did in the debate, and make no mistake, she did well.

Fourth, candidates like Webb and Chaffee who pointedly stuck out to the right. Webb just because of the military aspect and demeanor, Chaffee for saying the Republican Party left him and now here is is, says "Hi I'm a moderate" This put HRC into a bit more of a 'lean left' juxtaposition at the debate.

Hating this so far?

Okay, so....


Here is the GOOD News. Nobody votes tomorrow. This is a long haul. The campaign is being extremely well run. I mean seriously well run...so good so far...simply amazing.

So again. What has happened POST DEBATE for Bernie?

An enormous influx of cash in just a few days. News reports about the small donor base for Bernie vs. the large contributions to HRC. Also, news about Cash on Hand and the expense rates of Bernie vs HRC...Bernie's campaign costs are much, much lower than hers. Bernie raising more cash than ANY Republican candidate is news.

Continued campaign cash economy by doing shows (that are not costly to the candidate!) like Ellen and Real Time, as well as other interviews that reach mass audiences, even larger than the crowds that have shown up city after city. This by the way, would never have happened without supporters and social media AND Bernie's message that has generated a lot of excitement.

I also believe that the Sanders campaign move to smaller discussion groups, bbq's and house parties is a good idea that will give the campaign really good perspective on how WE are moving his message forward. I think it will also provide the campaign with solid feedback about the message and how it is resonating by community. That just can't take too long because I still believe he needs to generate some more big crowds, just not as often as those events are very costly.

Social Media and an Activist Explosion.

Even more people coming out and endorsing Sanders. Hollywood = money, we are seeing more and more of these wealthy folks become believers and truly great advocates.

A HUGE energized base of support by Party activists that will get out and WORK for the candidate as much as they can. More and more influencers persuading family and friends and tamping down this whole Socialism vs. Democratic Socialism thing.

AND Bernie Sanders himself. 15.7 million people now know what an honorable man he is and not just by his email response, but by his record. People know he is NOT BOUGHT and PAID FOR. And as we move forward even more people will find out just what kind of a once in a lifetime candidate Bernie is for President.

HRC gains, yes, but only modest ones. A 5% swing in NH, not a 30% swing and only perhaps a small drop in Sander's support.

Finally, and this one may seem weird, but Hillary Clinton herself. Bernie Sanders has and will never consider her an enemy and she certainly knows and respects how he is campaigning now and may even take a lead from it and do two things; refrain from attacks against Bernie on anything but policy and recognize the energy he is bringing to the Party and think that she can use Bernie's small donor base down the road (don't take this the wrong way here, her campaign sees us donating to Bernie, she doesn't have us, she covets us. Do not think for one second she doesn't. In the end, if she ever goes negative on Bernie, know it will be a very desperate move because she will lose us, she can't afford that..but eh it won't matter because Sander's is going to win the most delegates in the end)

Sidebar benefit: DWS's curtain is being pulled back (Wizard of Oz reference, look it up you young whippersnappers)

and now for the bottom line....

Even if HRC "won" that debate, Sander's did not LOSE it for all of the reasons I stated above and I am sure more. If there were losers in that debate, it was certainly Webb and Chaffee, who I doubt will remain in much longer. O'Malley has some post debate issues as news reports are showing he took money from the NRA which really contradicts his most spoken about messages during the debate so his performance may turn on him.

I wouldn't be surprised if a few HRC supporters find this post and say, "See? see??? the truth is setting in with at least one of them over there..." BUT make no mistake....sometimes, it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game and this is a LONG season! It only matters that you take the series.



15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
This will not make many of you happy. (Original Post) SandersDem Oct 2015 OP
Nobody "wins" these "debates" because they aren't debates. The Velveteen Ocelot Oct 2015 #1
"how can you "win" a press conference?" demwing Oct 2015 #4
Like this... SandersDem Oct 2015 #6
I didn't watch the debate so I have no idea who "won" tularetom Oct 2015 #2
well I certainly have not jumped ship SandersDem Oct 2015 #5
+++++ grasswire Oct 2015 #7
Yes he is doing fine Rosa Luxemburg Oct 2015 #13
The campaign must be waged and the votes must be counted. Go Bernie ! CentralMass Oct 2015 #3
Agree with the OP HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #8
If you go deep SandersDem Oct 2015 #10
Cut it out! Enthusiast Oct 2015 #9
As someone said, "A week is a long time in politics" Rosa Luxemburg Oct 2015 #11
Well no shit - TBF Oct 2015 #12
Even if she won the battle............... swilton Oct 2015 #14
Any polling that shows Robbins Oct 2015 #15

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,674 posts)
1. Nobody "wins" these "debates" because they aren't debates.
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 12:29 AM
Oct 2015

They are merely group press conferences. Real debates involve arguments and rebuttals between candidates and can be objectively scored; these rather silly events can be evaluated only subjectively. The self-appointed wise men, the media pundits, some of whom have agendas and others are just pinballing around their echo chamber, decide who "won," but there is nothing objective about their opinions (you know what they say about opinions). It is possible to sort of lose if you commit a huge gaffe or look unprepared or angry - under these criteria you could probably say Chaffee and Webb lost, but they weren't going anywhere anyhow. And O'Malley probably didn't gain any traction from the publicity. But really, how can you "win" a press conference?

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
4. "how can you "win" a press conference?"
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 12:37 AM
Oct 2015

in the minds of the voters that watched (or didn't watch, as some admitted). Most have no clue what went down...

tularetom

(23,664 posts)
2. I didn't watch the debate so I have no idea who "won"
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 12:31 AM
Oct 2015

But anybody who jumps ship because some TV talking heads tell them Clinton won the debate needs to toughen up.

 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
8. Agree with the OP
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 01:22 AM
Oct 2015

This is a bump in the road for the Sanders campaign, no doubt, but I think the momentum is still strong and there's 3 debates left before the first vote is cast. Plenty of time.

SandersDem

(592 posts)
10. If you go deep
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 09:22 AM
Oct 2015

into the entire OP, you will see that this is far from a bump in the road.


If you were a candidate, would you trade the notion that you did not win a debate (ya didn't lose either) and a couple % points now for: a huge surge in campaign donations, massive free media attention via talk shows, an increase in opinion leader endorsements, a base of determined angry and energized supporters?

Bernie Sanders got that and more from this debate. What would you call that?

I think the campaign is pretty damn happy. We should be too, regardless of what the media says.

Rosa Luxemburg

(28,627 posts)
11. As someone said, "A week is a long time in politics"
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 09:35 AM
Oct 2015

Bernie supporters are fired up. It is a long time til the elections and no matter what the media spin we will come through.

TBF

(32,047 posts)
12. Well no shit -
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 09:36 AM
Oct 2015

I hope that didn't take you a long time to compose because it's not like any of us expect the mainstream media to jump up and say "oh my god - we need Bernie". No, those are the minions of the folks who run this country. Do I need to post the Carlin skit from You tube yet again? "They own this place" "They own everything" "And now they're coming for your f***** Social Security" "You and I are not in the big club".

Hillary Clinton, at net worth M$32 is one of them.

We.Don't.Want.Her.

Ah, hell, here's George again - because at least when he goes on for 5 minutes he makes some damned sense:



Robbins

(5,066 posts)
15. Any polling that shows
Sat Oct 17, 2015, 01:53 PM
Oct 2015

gains by her including ahead in NH is terrable and perhapes fatal for us.

it allowes clinton and supporters to spread message people saw clinton and bernie on same stage and people prefered her.

it remains to be seen how many people will be able to see the remaining debates.they are on ABC,CBS,and NBC and may only
be seen localy.although last one before voting starts is susposet o be on NBC news it remains to be seen if MSNBC will air it.

so it may be lost.we need something of good news because it's been pile on latelt.

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