Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIowa Caucuses Still Up for Grabs, Monmouth Poll Shows
Iowa remains up for grabs with nearly half of voters saying they could change their mind five days before the Feb. 3 caucuses, according to a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday.
The poll of likely Democratic caucus goers found Joe Biden leading with 23%, closely followed by Bernie Sanders with 21%, Pete Buttigieg with 16% and Elizabeth Warren with 15%. Amy Klobuchar had 10%. The numbers are barely changed from Monmouths last survey earlier this month.
Caucus electorates are the most difficult to model in polling, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a statement. The smartest takeaway from this, or any Iowa poll for that matter, is to be prepared for anything on Monday.
Iowans also have yet to make up their mind. The poll found 45% of likely caucusgoers said they were open to changing their support on caucus night -- 13% of voters said it was a high possibility and 23% said it was a moderate possibility.
Sanders supporters are the least likely to waiver, 58% said they were firmly supporting him, followed by Warren with 55%, Buttigieg with 49%, Biden with 48% and Klobuchar with 47%. The poll conducted Jan. 23-27 had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-29/iowa-caucuses-still-up-for-grabs-monmouth-poll-shows?srnd=politics-vp
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)These Monmouth Pollsters need to put on some extra pounds ...They're underweighted ..I've got about 20 extra pounds on my ass I'd be glad to give 'em
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)one Iowa university this week. If his support among the young was so strong, why would he get beaten soundly in the mock caucus?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
judeling
(1,086 posts)They tried very hard and ran multiple turnout models to come to the conclusion that nobody really knows.
They did provide their standard model as a comparison.
But they mentioned that a 10,00o variation in turnout would be enough to change any result.
What I find interesting is that Klobuchar is now hitting double digits in almost all the Iowa polls. Good Biden Model or Good Sanders Model. It now looks like more of a five way then a 4 way race. The Second choices of Warren, Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar voters will be playing a big roll in the outcome.
I left Sanders out because I do not think where they are in the pool that Sanders supporters will for the most part realign. This is not a knock on Sanders supporters, for a movement it is exactly what they should do. It says nothing about what will happen later.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,605 posts)Morning sideEdu poll
Biden 19
Buttigieg 18
Warren and sanders tied at 15
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls
Anybodys guess at this point!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden