Democratic Primaries

pnwmom

(108,955 posts) Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:07 PM Jan 2020

A quarter of 2016 Sanders supporters now back Elizabeth Warren.

About a tenth of HRC's do so.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/30/quarter-2016-sanders-supporters-now-back-elizabeth-warren/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Those who supported Hillary Clinton four years ago are most likely to now support Biden, rather unsurprisingly. So is the group of voters who at different times during the 2016 campaign indicated they supported either Clinton or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), or who had no opinion. About 17 percent of that group now supports Sanders.

Interestingly, while Sanders is the most commonly supported candidate among his 2016 backers, a quarter of his support from four years ago now goes to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Warren also scoops up a bit over a tenth of Clinton’s 2016 support.

A Twitter user wondered why Sanders was nonetheless in the top tier of the field. RealClearPolitics’s average of polls has Sanders in second place, with support of 22.5 percent of the electorate. But that’s far less than the support he had four years ago at this point, when he was supported by more than 37 percent of the electorate. Back then, there were only two significant candidates. Now, there are more — and Sanders’s strong core base of support keeps him in the hunt even though his support is lower than it was.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

12 replies

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A quarter of 2016 Sanders supporters now back Elizabeth Warren. (Original Post) pnwmom Jan 2020 OP

Good for Warren!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #1

Recommended. guillaumeb Jan 2020 #2

I'm surprised it's not higher. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #3

That last sentence is key Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #4

California hasn't voted yet, and his polled support in CA seems similar to what it was then, pnwmom Jan 2020 #6

Nobody has voted yet Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #7

But there's no indication that he's broadened his base. He did well in CA last time -- 47%. pnwmom Jan 2020 #9

47% was not his base. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #11

I think his floor is too close to his ceiling for him to win. n/t pnwmom Jan 2020 #12

I would think so still_one Jan 2020 #5

There were a lot... cannabis_flower Jan 2020 #8

Bernie was 25% behind Hillary before Iowa voted in 2016 ritapria Jan 2020 #10

Thekaspervote

(32,705 posts)

1. Good for Warren!!

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:08 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

guillaumeb

(42,641 posts)

2. Recommended.

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:09 PM

Jan 2020

Also from the article:

It’s not unexpected Sanders and Warren share an overlapping base. On Tuesday, we looked at polling from Quinnipiac University showing whom supporters of individual candidates identified as their second choices. The graphic below shows how that support shifts, with arrows scaled to the density of support that would move between candidates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,428 posts)

3. I'm surprised it's not higher.

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:18 PM

Jan 2020

Personally, I think the overlap between the two camps is a bit overstated by the media (and perhaps on DU). That being said, I just don't see the appeal of Bernie over Elizabeth in the base they supposedly share. She seems to offer most, if not all, of the issues appeal with more concrete (and, perhaps, realistic) solutions and without the perceived baggage and bluster.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

4. That last sentence is key

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:20 PM

Jan 2020

And the fact he is coming strong in places like california means that he is also broadening his base.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

pnwmom

(108,955 posts)

6. California hasn't voted yet, and his polled support in CA seems similar to what it was then,

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:21 PM

Jan 2020

considering that he has more opponents now. He had 47% in the 2016 CA primary vs. 26% now. That doesn't seem like broadening his base to me.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-01-28/bernie-sanders-grabs-lead-in-california-presidential-primary

Along with strong backing among Latinos and young voters, backing on the left is enough to give the Vermont senator support from 26% of voters likely to take part in the state’s March 3 Democratic primary, according to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted for the Los Angeles Times.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_California_Democratic_primary

CA Primary Results, 2016

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

7. Nobody has voted yet

Reply to pnwmom (Reply #6)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:26 PM

Jan 2020

But his margin above other candidates is far better in polls than last time.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

pnwmom

(108,955 posts)

9. But there's no indication that he's broadened his base. He did well in CA last time -- 47%.

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #7)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:27 PM

Jan 2020

So how do you deduce that he's broadening his base?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

11. 47% was not his base.

Reply to pnwmom (Reply #9)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:44 PM

Jan 2020

His base is around the 22 or so percent that he is polling at nationally now. And his near 30% in california shows that he has improved substantially from the deficit before. And other candidates are fading with their support.

One of the reasons he is doing so well is that his floor is so close to his actual performance as opposed to other candidates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

pnwmom

(108,955 posts)

12. I think his floor is too close to his ceiling for him to win. n/t

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #11)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 08:10 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

still_one

(92,061 posts)

5. I would think so

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:20 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

cannabis_flower

(3,764 posts)

8. There were a lot...

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:27 PM

Jan 2020

Of voters who wanted Elizabeth Warren to run in 2016. When she didn't many of them threw their support to Bernie Sanders. So it's not surprising that when Warren decided to run that some of them would shift their support back to Warren.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

10. Bernie was 25% behind Hillary before Iowa voted in 2016

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 06:42 PM

Jan 2020

Today , he is just 4% behind Biden in the national polls ...Obama was 20% behind Hillary before Iowa voted …….Bernie needs to win Iowa by at least 5% and needs Joe to finish third or lower in Iowa ...I am not predicting this will happen ..I am hoping it will happen ..The NYT reported today that Joe's ground operation in Iowa is very weak .. Take that for whatever you think it's worth ..We will find out in a few days if their report is accurate …. From Political Wire " BIDEN 'S IOWA GROUND GAME HAS GAPS " His campaign does not have precinct captains in all of Iowa's over 1,600 precincts … Not a good sign ..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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