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Fiendish Thingy

(15,369 posts)
16. From your link:
Tue Sep 15, 2020, 08:26 PM
Sep 2020
News reports about polling will often say that a candidate’s lead is “outside the margin of error” to indicate that a candidate’s lead is greater than what we would expect from sampling error, or that a race is “a statistical tie” if it’s too close to call. It is not enough for one candidate to be ahead by more than the margin of error that is reported for individual candidates (i.e., ahead by more than 3 points, in our example). To determine whether or not the race is too close to call, we need to calculate a new margin of error for the difference between the two candidates’ levels of support. The size of this margin is generally about twice that of the margin for an individual candidate. The larger margin of error is due to the fact that if the Republican share is too high by chance, it follows that the Democratic share is likely too low, and vice versa.


Polls report levels of support for each candidate, with the MOE applied to each Individual candidate’s support (graph at link). You must double the MOE to determine if the lead is beyond a statistical tie.

That’s why I’m not too excited about Biden’s 5 point lead in a poll with a 4.7% MOE, because he would need a lead greater than 9.4% to be outside the margin of error.

It’s also why I am excited about national polls showing Biden with a 7-10% lead with 2-3% MOE (538 gives 99% odds of winning EC with pop vote margin greater than 7%), and why I am excited about Rust belt polls giving Biden 8-10% leads with 2-3% MOE’s.

Great news Proud liberal 80 Sep 2020 #1
Sure. These guys: sandensea Sep 2020 #7
The only President who ever invaded Cuba was a Dem. lagomorph777 Sep 2020 #9
Yes - but right-wing Cubans blame Kennedy for "bailing out" on their putsch sandensea Sep 2020 #11
I realize, also, I forgot to mention we intervened continuously for about 60 years prior to Castro. lagomorph777 Sep 2020 #18
True - but try telling THEM that. sandensea Sep 2020 #19
It's not just anti-Castroism anymore Azathoth Sep 2020 #21
True - and partly out of a need to identify with white people (whom they believe to be mostly GOP) sandensea Sep 2020 #22
Well lookie lookie there! made my day..thx for posting Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #2
Great news! mysteryowl Sep 2020 #3
So much for the 'Biden's behind with Latinos' tropes sandensea Sep 2020 #4
Proud Lib 80 is correct! Gamecock Lefty Sep 2020 #5
MOE of 4.7%, so take with a huge grain of salt...statistically tied. Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #6
Actually statistically speaking Biden is ahead. 5 is greater than 4.7 honest.abe Sep 2020 #12
Biden loses by 2.7% if you subtract the MOE from him, and add it to Trump Nt Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #14
When the poll is between two contestants the MOE is based on the difference between the two. honest.abe Sep 2020 #15
From your link: Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #16
I'd like to several polls like this--good for today though. riversedge Sep 2020 #8
Add it to the average. BlueWavePsych Sep 2020 #10
Fabulous! And this is before Bloomberg's $100M kicks in. honest.abe Sep 2020 #13
polling responses RicROC Sep 2020 #17
How many points can the corrupt governor and clerks steal? Yeehah Sep 2020 #20
Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Monmouth poll: Biden up 5...»Reply #16