Obama Leads McCain in Four Key Battleground States: Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota [View All]

Source: Washington Post

By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Thursday, June 26, 2008

Democrat Barack Obama holds narrow leads over GOP rival John McCain in Colorado and Michigan, two of the most competitive states in two of the most competitive regions of the country heading into the general-election campaign, according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

In two other states that were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election -- Wisconsin and Minnesota -- Obama holds double-digit edges among likely voters, an indication that these states may not be in the swing category this election. The Democratic Party's presidential nominee carried both Wisconsin and Minnesota in each of the last four elections, although Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) won each by slim margins in 2004.

The four surveys are the kickoff of a four-month effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground states. They echo several recent national polls -- including surveys conducted for Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg -- showing Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain, the GOP candidate. However, other national surveys -- including the Gallup daily tracking poll -- show the race to be much closer.

The path to the presidency runs through a handful of battleground states, as both Obama and McCain seek the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Thus, the four states surveyed in this project provide a snapshot of where things stand less than five months before Election Day. If the 2004 election was a battle of the bases, the battleground surveys suggest the 2008 fight is shaping up to be one in which independent voters who align with neither party are the crucial bloc....

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