Reply #32: Data from US Census "American Housing Survey" for 2007 [View All]

The tables are available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/ahs/ahs07/ahs07.html

If you download table 3-15 "Mortgage Characteristics" it contains number for the total number of owner occupied homes and the number of homes with mortgages.

The total number of homes is 75,647,000.

The number of homes with mortgages is 45,156,000. Therefore, about 60% of homeowners have mortgages.

To say that "The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011" would mean that 0.48 * 75,647,000 = 36,310,560 homeonewers with mortgages would owe more than their house was worth.

That would imply that 36,310,560 / 45,156,000 = 80% of mortgages would be under water. This percentage is improbably large.

Farther on in the story http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5745JP20090805?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
it quotes more Deutsche Bank numbers:

Of prime conforming loans, 41 percent will be "underwater" by the first quarter of 2011, up from 16 percent at the end of the first quarter 2009, it said. Forty-six percent of prime jumbo loans will be larger than their properties' value, up from 29 percent, it said.

These numbers are more consistent with an interpretation that 48% of the 60% of homeowners who have mortgages will owe more on their house than the house is worth.

I think the Reuters reporter got the lead sentence wrong, and Deutsche bank didn't say what the reporter said.