Reply #30: 6 Reasons Why Howard Dean Will Win The General Election [View All]

http://home.earthlink.net/~lthieman/howarddean/

Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont

(November 1, 2003) I have been following the presidential campaign progress of former Vermont Governor Howard Dean ever since Dean won MoveOn.org’s first-ever “national primary” with a whopping 44% of the vote in June of this year. I have become convinced that Dean will not only win the Democratic nomination, but that he will win the general election, too. Let me tell you why.

1) Money: With the New York Times (10/16/03) reporting a $14.8 million take in the third quarter (ending September 30), Dean broke Bill Clinton’s 1995 record of $10.3 million in a single quarter by a Democratic candidate for president in a year before a national election—and Clinton was president at the time and running unopposed.

This puts Dean, at $25.4 million for the year, over $5 million ahead of Kerry, who comes in second in the “money primary.” The difference is, though, that Kerry started big and then dwindled to just $4 million in the third quarter, whereas Dean started slowly, and has developed what Bush Sr. called “the big mo.”

In addition, Dean can go back to the well again and again since the average contribution is less than $100. It’s a source of funding that is unlikely to dry up.

2) Number of Supporters: Early in 2003, Dean and his campaign manager, Joe Trippi, sat down to discuss numbers. They determined how many Dean supporters they would need to have registered on the DeanForAmerica.com website in order to win the general election. They then took that figure and worked backwards, deciding that they would need to have 450,000 registered Dean supporters by September 30, 2003, in order to meet the end figure. The Dean campaign reached that important goal on September 29.

3) Meet Up: Meet Up is an Internet-based organization that allows its members to self-organize. Candidates for office can purchase the services of Meet Up to help in grassroots organizational efforts. Members meet monthly, planning outreach and campaign activities.

As of November 1, Howard Dean had over 131,600 registered Meet Up members. In comparison, 14,500 have registered in support of John Kerry, and Dick Gephardt clocks in at just 511 members.

The Dean Meet Up figures are indicative of a grassroots that feels energized and empowered. Clearly, Howard Dean and his message spark something in people that inspires them to self-organize – in all 50 states and in the District of Columbia. Dean is reaching out to the base, he’s bringing drop-outs back into the political process, and he’s creating interest among newbie activists who have never participated before - and he's using the Internet to start the process.

4) Organization: One of the advantages of running a frugal campaign that is flush with cash is the ability to put paid, professional staffers on the ground in early states. Dean staffers are now placed in 18 states, far beyond what any of the other candidates have been able to do, and essential since the primaries and caucuses are stacked at the front end this year.

5) Polls: In every poll that counts at this time of year – that is the early state-by-state polls, Dean seems to be positioned well. In Iowa, the first caucus state, Dean is in a statistical dead heat with Gephardt. In New Hampshire, Dean has a double-digit lead over the second-place Kerry. In Arizona, Dean has a firm lead over the second-place Wesley Clark. And in Michigan, the most recent poll shows Dean in the lead, with the other three above-mentioned candidates tied for second. Dean has surged into the lead from the back of the pack. No other candidate has achieved this kind of momentum.

6) The GOP Pollsters’ Memo: According to an October 6, 2003, article by Chris Cillizza in Roll Call, GOP pollsters insist that Gov. Howard Dean can beat George W. Bush in the general election.

A memo was circulated recently by a “prominent Republican polling firm” - pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser of Moore Information. Some of the key arguments follow.

The GOP runs “a serious risk of underestimating” Dean. Cillizza quotes Moore and Kaiser as arguing: "If one makes the case that Bush could be vulnerable to the poofy John Kerry or the scintillating (yawn) Bob Graham, how can anyone write off Howard Dean?"

"The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but will not appear threatening to folks in the middle," Moore and Kaiser write. "We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover."

"Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of 'empirical' sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time," the memo notes.

According to Cillizza, another pollster commented that part of Dean's appeal appears to be stylistic: "There is an element of plain-spoken, Ross Perot style about him."

Cillizza continues: ‘Moore and Kaiser also offer an electoral vote scenario under which Dean could defeat Bush in 2004. They give Dean victories in 23 states (270 electoral votes) and point out that Bush lost all but two - Nevada and West Virginia - in the 2000 presidential election.’

’Moore and Kaiser argue that with Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) not likely to face a top-tier opponent and the "nuclear repository issue still alive and kicking," the Silver State, which Bush won by 20,000 votes in 2000, could easily be carried by the Democratic nominee.’

’Similarly in West Virginia, where Bush won by a surprising 6-point margin in 2000, Moore and Kaiser believe that "Dean's willingness to work with the on gun owners' rights will go a long way to deflecting the 'liberal' charge."’

Cillizza concludes: ‘Officials involved in Bush's re-election campaign as well as several Republican pollsters say they long ago came to the realization that Dean was a political force that needed to be taken seriously.

"The Bush campaign is taking Dean seriously because they think he would do a better job of rallying the Democratic base than some of the other candidates," said one Republican consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "Dean gets their base voters excited."’

http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_35/news/3120-1.html

And on a final note, this was over at ABCNews – The Note on October 13, 2003.

"But the person who continues to dominate the seven indices of nomination success (money, momentum, money, message, money, media, and money) is the former governor of state with fewer citizens than Westchester County."

That would be Governor Howard Dean.