Reply #15: Wrong Actually [View All]

It's not PROOF positive (ok you're right it's not proof), but it's certainly a significant piece of evidential analysis. The Exit Poll analysis can only be dismissed if the methodology is found to be flawed UNIFORMLY. IOW, all states would have the same bias towards Kerry, within an MOE. According to the article it's NOT a uniform flaw. If it's a flaw, it's substantially more prounounced in the battleground states. This is therefore almost certainly NOT a methodological bias.

The likely explanation is a problem with the election.

That being said, it's crazy that no one can get the raw exit poll data. This analysis (and others) obviously would be that much stronger if we had the data accurately sourced. Unfortunately (and oddly) the data is NOT being released. Gee, I wonder why?