Reply #9: My predictions [View All]

Knowles/Murkowski will be competitive, but I give the edge to Knowles.

Lincoln is reelected by a comfortable margin.

Boxer is reelected (it's California, folks! - - not even Marin will win a U.S. Senate seat in a presidential election year).

Campbell is reelected.

Penelas/Deutsch/Castor will be a tough primary fight. My preference is Castor...I think Deutsch will be too partisan. Penelas might be a good compromise candidate. I think any of the three of them could win, but all will have a competitive General Election fight.

If Squires is the Dem nominee in Georgia, I agree that Cain would give her the toughest battle. But against Isakson or Collins, Squires could still get a boost from a likable Dem presidential nominee.

Obama is my favorite in Illinois, but Hull/Hynes want the nomination badly too. I don't think any of the Republicans have a shot here.

Breaux wins in a walk. If Breaux retires, it could be competitive.

Farmer has a good chance of taking out Bond. Bond's reelection margins have not been that strong in the past.

PREDICTIONS:

AK: Democrat (D pickup)
AR: Democrat (D hold)
CA: Democrat (D hold)
CO: Republican (R hold)
FL: Too close to call (possible R pickup)
GA: Too close to call (possible R pickup)
IL: Democrat (D pickup)
LA: Democrat (D hold, unless Breaux retires)
MO: Democrat (D pickup)