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He's stupid in the sense of being intellectually lazy and incurious, but on things that do interest him (or in paying people back) he's sharper than most people give him credit for. If he wasn't a Bush (with its attendant advantages), he'd be somebody else's Karl Rove.
However, because he IS incurious and intellectually, he likes having problems reduced to black & white and simple answers to solve them. Thus, he has surrounded himself with neocons, who have complete confidence that they are the ones who truly know "the score", who think they have everything figured out and know what must be done, and have a plan ready to bring that to fruition.
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