Even now, retailers see a blue Christmas [View All]

There's no cheerful way to say it: Get ready for a sober Christmas season.

Yes, it's only July, but retailers already are deep in planning mode for the holiday season, and what they are sensing adds up to potential trouble, with some experts saying this could be the toughest environment in almost 30 years.

"What word should I use? Terrible? Horrible? Miserable?" said Homi Patel, chairman and chief executive of Hartmarx Corp., a Chicago-based clothing manufacturer of suits and sportswear, when asked to describe the 2008 holiday. "There is a time when the consumer isn't going to shop. It doesn't matter if it's 70 percent off or 80 percent off, the mind-set is, 'I just don't want to shop.' And that's something we haven't seen in quite some time."

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Consumer spending accounts for about 71 percent of GDP, up from 65 percent in 1980. Platt predicts that percentage will revert to about 66 percent as consumers seek to strengthen their household balance sheets over the next decade.