Reply #53: The "too big to fail" argument? [View All]

I'd say that's a prime example of a narrative element. Large, complex, highly interconnected systems can be quite prone to total failure, sometimes in unexpected and dramatic ways.

One good example is the 2003 power outage in the northeastern US and Canada. It was triggered by a branch hitting a power line in Ohio, and the failure cascade left 55 million people in 8 states and one province without power.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003

I don't think our civilization will experience some total, monolithic, amorphous collapse. I think pieces of it will collapse completely, some regions will experience partial failures of one sort or another, and still others will keep on going pretty much as normal. IMO which category a region falls into will depend largely on how dependent it is on the global system to provide some of the necessities of life. More self-sufficient regions will fare better, while countries that import large quantities of goods on a Just-In-Time basis from, oh, let's say China, could be more vulnerable.