Reply #86: War games predict look of Gaza ground operation [View All]

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi believes that any occupation of Gaza by the army must end as soon as possible, according to an officer who participated in discussions and war games related to such an operation. At the same time, however, Ashkenazi fears that if the operation ends too quickly, the IDF will only have to go back into the Gaza Strip later.

The officer added that Ashkenazi seeks to minimize harm to Palestinian civilians, but recognizes that this cannot be prevented completely. One possibility examined during the war games was that international aid organizations might stop supplying Palestinian civilians' basic needs in areas where the IDF is operating. This would require Israel to do so in their stead. In that case, Israel might reestablish a scaled-down version of the Civil Administration that governed Gaza in the pre-Oslo era.

According to people who participated in the war games, the IDF charted several different scenarios, from a brief incursion followed by immediate withdrawal to a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza. The latter plan, however, would be implemented only if the government decided to try to fundamentally change the regional balance of power via military force - a decision that, as far as is known, has not yet been made.

The games also assumed that Hamas would try to force a rapid withdrawal via painful attacks on IDF forces. These would include roadside bombs, suicide bombings, sniper fire and assaults involving sophisticated weaponry. Hamas would also try to ensure that the fighting took place as much as possible in crowded urban areas. Any ground operation is liable to entail many casualties among Israeli soldiers and Palestinian civilians, as well as damage to Gaza's infrastructure.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1051025.html