WSJ OP-ED: A Woman (Katherine Harris) Scorned [View All]

The Wall Street Journal

A Woman Scorned

By PETER A. BROWN
February 2, 2006; Page A11

Orlando, Fla.

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So what does Ms. Harris, an attractive and articulate conservative, get as her reward? The Bush boys and the Republican apparatus they control in Florida and Washington have done everything possible to block her. Of course, none of this is personal. It's just business, as the Corleones used to say, and the Bush family business is hardball politics. They believe, as do most objective observers of the race, that Ms. Harris's chances of defeating Sen. Nelson, the sole remaining statewide elected Democrat in the Sunshine State, are slim to none. Ironically, carrying water for Bush has made her a lightning rod for those who dislike anything having to do with the president. Of course, she will get Republican support, but to Democrats her candidacy is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Not only will they vote against her, they will come out in droves to do so, jeopardizing everyone else on the GOP ticket.

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Florida Republicans control all but one statewide office, and they also control both houses of the Legislature and the U.S. House delegation by large margins. They think they are on the way to making Florida a one-party state -- as much a GOP fortress as Texas. Losing the governorship would be a big blow, and would have implications for the presidential campaign two years hence, one in which Florida remains the most important swing state.

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Absent a well-funded GOP primary challenger -- which the governor and the president sought but couldn't recruit -- the nomination now appears hers for the asking. It's not as if the Bushes didn't try. Karl Rove, the president's political guru, tried to talk her out of running, as he did in 2004. So has Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who heads the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. They courted Florida House Speaker Allan Bense, and after that Tommy Franks, the retired general who ran the war against Saddam Hussein and is a Florida resident. Both took a pass. With the political calendar now turning a page, things look pretty good for Sen. Nelson. He leads Ms. Harris by 24 points in the latest Quinnipiac poll and has a huge money edge. She showed $469,833 on hand compared to his $6,519,723 in the last available campaign finance report. Apparently the Bush brothers aren't the only Republicans who consider her damaged goods.

(snip)

For Florida Republicans, the whole thing is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. It's not just that the polls show her trailing by so much. It's that more voters view her negatively than positively, while Sen. Nelson's positive-to-negative rating is about 4-to-1. Her widespread name recognition is actually a disadvantage. Mr. Jewett, the UCF professor, explains it simply: "It is very difficult to shape public opinion once it is already set. It would be much better for the Republicans to have someone who is not as well known, but for whom you can develop a positive image with good advertising." In other words, a blank slate would be far preferable to the candidate that Democrats and independents already know and hate, which is why the Bush brothers have decided winning trumps loyalty.

Mr. Brown is assistant director of the Quinnipiac University polling unit.

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