Reply #10: This among other factors [View All]

May be responsible for Bush's drop in a number of state polls in the last two days, as well as several electoral polls projections giving Kerry a very large lead over Bush again. For the last two weeks, DC"s political report had the total number ot electoral votes giiving BUsh the election by between ten to twenty electoral votes, but the latest calculation now have Kerry way ahead in the electoral college with well over 300 electoral votes being projected again. Electoral Vote.com has Kerry currently holding 264 electoral votes and Bush only having 222. Last week at this time, both these polls had BUsh winning both the popular vote and the electoral college.

If Bush avoids the debates, this will have a very negative effect on his polling, as it will definitely reinforce Kerry's claims that the Bush campaign has nothing good in its record to run on. The recent re-surfacing of Bush's military service records, as well as the recent relatively weak economic data, and crossing the 1000 death threshhold in Iraq, just days before the anniversary of 9/11 brings us a reminder that Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahari, and all the other leaders of Al-Qaeda who actively planned, trained, and financed the perpetrators of 9/11 and other terrorist events in Bali, Madrid, adn other places are still not only free, but free and planning, while Bushco tries to insist that being in Iraq is what will keep us safe from another attack.

Bush got his bump from his convention, but eventually, cold hard reality slaps the public in the face, and only the most die hard of the Bush base will hang onto the myth that Bush and only Bush can keep America safe from terrorism by attacking it where it is not.